Global fixed broadband subscribers continues rapid growth, expected to hit 1.2 billion by 2025

First-of-its-kind Point Topic report identifies wireless-wireline convergence as a key growth driver

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Mar 07, 2019, 07:14 ET

FREMONT, Calif., March 7, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The markets and technologies which will drive continued rapid broadband growth over the next decade have today been revealed by Broadband Forum and Point Topic in a new report which predicts there will be 1.2 billion fixed broadband subscribers by 2025.

Following the announcement last October that there are now one billion global fixed broadband subscribers, this report is Point Topic's first worldwide broadband subscribers forecast providing the details behind that milestone, addressing the period between Q3 2018 and Q4 2025.

According to the research, the current trends of booming deep-fiber deployment and accelerating broadband penetration in developing markets will be the engine of broadband growth through 2025. The forecast states that some variant of fiber – Fiber-To-The-Home (FTTH), Fiber-To-The-Premises (FTTP) or Fiber-To-The-Building (FTTB) – will be used by 59% of fixed broadband subscribers globally by 2025. The report also examines the impact of superfast 5G, predicting that fixed mobile convergence will mean that the next one billion subscribers could blend wireless and fixed subscriptions.

"With 5G on the horizon and new Internet of Things devices and Over the Top services increasingly becoming a part of subscribers' everyday lives, this new analysis looks at how the fixed broadband market and the technologies within it are evolving to meet this demand," said Oliver Johnson, CEO at Point Topic. "As we look towards the next billion broadband subscriptions, fixed lines will continue to play a significant role. We expect to see more convergence between fixed and mobile lines as consumers look for a seamless, high-quality connectivity experience that is available anywhere, anytime."

Overall, 89% of the predicted 1.2 billion subscribers in 2025 will come from the current top 30 broadband markets¹, defined in Point Topic's Q2 2018 report. Fixed broadband adoption in these top 30 markets is expected to grow by 22% between 2018 and 2025, with developing economies in countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and Mexico likely to see the highest growth in this period. Global adoption, including the rest of the world, is forecast to grow by 24%.

Between 2018 and 2025, fiber-based connections (FTTH/P/B) are expected to grow by 51% and FTTC/VDSL by 28%. In the same period, ADSL-based connections are forecast to drop by 39%. At the same time it is expected that pricing dependent growth in the satellite market and alternative offerings like TV White Space will extend the global broadband footprint.

Whereas broadband-capable device proliferation and connectivity, catalyzed by key enablers such as Broadband Forum's TR-069 protocol, paved the way to surpassing one billion deployments worldwide last October, emerging drivers such as 5G, meshed Wi-Fi, and new advanced services will be key to continued growth. Broadband Forum is well ahead of this curve, already preparing operators' networks for the next billion connections. Ongoing projects include work with 3GPP to develop a converged 5G network, Broadband Quality Experience Delivered (Broadband QED) initiative, and User Services Platform (USP) which enables operators to manage connected home devices.

Additionally, Broadband Forum has published new standards for the modularization of the Dynamic Bandwidth Assignment (DBA) function in optical access systems and the industry's first Wi-Fi performance test standard. Its equipment conformance and interoperability certification testing is also ongoing, with this work being critical as networks scale to accommodate more than a billion subscribers.

"Following the significant achievement of one billion broadband subscribers worldwide, the global broadband market is continuing to evolve and find new ways to grow in both scale and quality," said Geoff Burke, CMO of Broadband Forum. "As 5G enters the picture, the fixed network will not only provide the backbone for the 5G services, but new services created from wireless-wireline convergence will also continue to drive fixed broadband proliferation and adoption. Broadband Forum is on the forefront of this transformation, championing the initiatives that will continue to improve the broadband experiences of the future."

For more information about Broadband Forum's work, visit: https://www.broadband-forum.org/

To see the full Point Topic Report, please see: http://point-topic.com/free-analysis/broadband-next-billion/.

About Broadband Forum
Broadband Forum is the communications industry's leading organization focused on accelerating broadband innovation, standards, and ecosystem development. Our members' passion – delivering on the promise of broadband by enabling smarter and faster broadband networks and a thriving broadband ecosystem.

A non-profit industry organization composed of the industry's leading broadband operators, vendors, and thought leaders, our work to date has been the foundation for broadband's global proliferation and innovation. For example, the Forum's flagship TR-069 CPE WAN Management Protocol has nearly 1 billion installations worldwide.

Broadband Forum working groups collaborate to define best practices for global networks, enable new revenue-generating service and content delivery, establish technology migration strategies, and engineer critical device, service & development management tools in the home and business IP networking infrastructure. We develop multi-service broadband packet networking specifications addressing architecture, device and service management, software data models, interoperability and certification in the broadband market.

Our free technical reports and white papers can be found at https://www.broadband-forum.org/.

For more information about the Broadband Forum, please go to https://www.broadband-forum.org or follow @Broadband_Forum on Twitter. For further information please contact Brian Dolby on +44 (0) 7899 914168 or [email protected] or Jayne Brooks on +44 (0) 1636 704 888 or [email protected].

About Point Topic
Point Topic exists to provide global broadband market intelligence, enabling the best-informed decisions possible.

Since 1998 we have gathered, analysed and published information sets that are used across the industry and beyond as the foundation of reporting, planning and strategy. We strive to provide insight, context, sourcing and transparent reporting so our users can follow the data inputs through to the information outputs with confidence.

We believe that broadband for all (broadband everywhere) is one of the greatest contributions our generation can make to the world. When businesses, people and governments can access good quality broadband it is to everyone's benefit. Point Topic is proud of our small but important contribution to the current and future spread of broadband across the globe.

Our free reports and analysis can be found at http://point-topic.com/

¹ The top 30 markets are: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Romania, Russian Federation, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam