US Residential momentum continues, replacement rates accelerating.
Based on a 5% growth ongoing non-residential construction recovery and stable 3% growth in replacement, it is estimated that this market would achieve 4% growth in 2016 and 2017 respectively. 2015 was a strong recovery year for non-residential construction while 2016 could most probably witness some slowing. While most HVAC players' revenue have recovered on regulatory change and pricing, commercial HVAC volumes are still 20% below peak, which means there are still some room to run in this market.
Replacement rates have steadily raised over the past few years following historically low levels coming out of the recession, and are now accelerating towards the high end of historical ranges as potential replacement demand is released into the system. This will be further boosted by a positive fundamental setup with high consumer confidence and low unemployment and gas prices, which have historically correlated strongly with replacement rates. It is estimated that the US HVAC market would achieve an 11% growth in 2016 and 5% in 2017.
Price was solid again in 2015, a trend that will continue with most companies announcing steady price increases that are expected to mostly stick even in a low commodity environment. Mix up has also been a key topic with the 14 SEER transition performance slightly better than expected and industry mix shifting rapidly away from 13 SEER as the 14 SEER premium held steady at about 10%. This market could see a compression up to 8%, which should come out with another solid mix benefits year. For cost, commodities remain sluggish, and major OEMs follow similar hedging strategies.
Key Topics Covered:
3 Residential HVAC Market
4 Commercial HVAC Market
5 Ductless Market in North America
7 Research on HVAC Margins and Financial Performance of Major Players