This research provides insights into the new policy priorities of governments to build resilient economies, medium-term growth expectations for major economies, and the transformative changes in the global trade, supply chains, and workforce landscape.
The COVID-19 pandemic pushed the global economy into a deep recession in 2020, with recovery underway. While economic parameters are improving, the pandemic has brought about transformative shifts in government policy, industries, and the business environment.
While the global economy contracted in 2020, some economies continued to exhibit strong resilience. In Q2 2020, contraction in the German economy was weaker compared to Western European counterparts such as Italy and Spain, which are more reliant on tourism. The higher sensitivity of the tourism sector to the pandemic-induced national lockdowns, travel restrictions, and vaccine inequity could delay the recovery process in tourism-dependent economies.
The United States's latest $1.9 trillion stimulus package has helped boost US growth prospects significantly, although the highly infectious Delta strain brings some uncertainty to the economic landscape.
Government vision and policy plans until 2030 indicate a greater focus on infrastructure development, digitalization, and accelerated transition to clean energy. Among the industries being promoted by the governments of major economies, digital infrastructure, clean energy, and electric vehicles are common focal areas. Fiscal policies in these countries show increasing tax and subsidy support for electric vehicles.
Recovery following the severe impact of COVID-19 on global trade and supply chain disruptions has been faster for goods trade compared to commercial services trade, with transport and travel services being particularly affected. The pandemic has also led to major trade and supply chain shifts.
For example, just-in-time inventory strategies are expected to be complemented by just-in-case strategies for better future-proofing. Given the disruptions in global supply chains, trends such as localization, reshoring, and production and supplier diversification will gain prominence. The pandemic has also resulted in a significant change in the workforce.
Remote working solutions are now vital, with remote and hybrid work models poised to extend post-pandemic, especially in higher-income countries. The gig economy will continue growing and increasingly expand into higher-skilled occupations.
The research also summarizes key growth opportunities tied to global transformative shifts.
Key Issues Addressed
What is the 2023 growth outlook for major economies such as the United States, Germany, China, and India?
What are the key growth drivers and restraints shaping the global economy?
Which industries will be positively or negatively impacted by the global economic transformation?
What are the main post-pandemic policy priorities of global governments?
Following the pandemic-induced global fiscal stimulus boost, how will public debt levels evolve?
What are the tax and subsidies policy expectations across governments?
Will China maintain its status as a global production hub in the post-pandemic period?
How can businesses better future-proof their supply chains?
What new workforce trends can be expected post-pandemic?
How will occupations across industries such as education and healthcare change?
Key Topics Covered:
1. Strategic Imperatives
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8T
Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Macroeconomic Environment
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineT
2. Growth Opportunity Analysis - Global Macroeconomic Environment
COVID-19 and the Global Macroeconomic Environment - Research Overview
GDP Growth Metrics for Key Economies
Growth Drivers for the Global Macroeconomic Environment
Growth Restraints to the Global Macroeconomic Environment
Global Economic Transformation and Impact on Industries
3. COVID-19 Impact on GDP and Outlook
Advanced Economies - COVID-19 Impact on GDP
Advanced Economies - COVID-19 and Growth Outlook
Emerging Market Economies - COVID-19 and Impact on GDP
Emerging Market Economies - COVID-19 and Growth Outlook
4. Government Vision and Industry Development Plans
Macroeconomic Vision and Policy Plans
Manufacturing vs Services Initiatives
Key Promoted Industries
5. Public Debt and Fiscal Policy
Advanced Economies - Public Debt Impact and Outlook
Emerging Market Economies - Public Debt Impact and Outlook
Government Spending, Tax, and Subsidy Policies
6. Trade and Supply Chains
Merchandise vs Services Trade Outlook
China+1 Strategies and Global Supply Chain Shifts
Sectoral Trade and Supply Chain Shifts
Future Proofing Supply Chains
7. Labor Force and Employment
Sectoral Employment Outlook
Workforce Trend Expectations
Changing Face of Occupations
8. Growth Opportunity Universe
Growth Opportunity 1 - Clean Energy Growth Supported by Government Policy Push and Fiscal Incentives
Growth Opportunity 2 - Reshoring, Nearshoring, and China+1 Strategies to Create Local Manufacturing Opportunities
Growth Opportunity 3 - Infrastructure Development Focus to Boost Construction and Supporting Industries Growth
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