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      • People & Culture

      GOP Challenger Randy Altschuler Leads Bishop in Latest Poll


      News provided by

      Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc.

      Oct 13, 2012, 01:12 ET

      Share this article

      Share this article


      NEW YORK, Oct. 13, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Republican challenger Randy Altschuler has taken a three-point lead over five-time Democratic Congressman Tim Bishop in the most recent poll in the race for the District 1 Congressional seat on the tip of Long Island. The poll of four hundred likely voters in New York's First Congressional District was conducted by the firm of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc. of Alexandria, VA. The hotly contested race is one of the top ten congressional races where the Republicans have targeted a Democratic opponent. The poll was conducted for Prosperity First Inc., a privately funded congressional PAC. Attached are further details of the poll:

      CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

      TO:

      Prosperity First PAC

      FROM:

      Tony Fabrizio

      RE:

      Ballot Results -- NY CD 1 Survey

      DATE:

      October 12, 2012

      Based on the findings from our recently completed survey of 400 Likely 2012 Voters (1) in New York's 1st Congressional District:

      Altschuler holds lead over Bishop.

      "If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) Randy Altschuler, the candidate of the Republican, Conservative and Independence Parties and Tim Bishop, the candidate of the Democratic Party, for whom would you vote? (IF ALSCHULER/BISHOP, ASK: And would you say definitely ALSCHULER/BISHOP or just probably ALSCHULER/BISHOP?)

      IF "UNDECIDED" ASK:
      If you had to choose today, which candidate are you leaning towards – (ROTATE) Randy Altschuler or Tim Bishop?"



      Opinion

      Heard


      Overall

      Of

      Of



      Both

      Both

      TOTAL ALTSCHULER

      49

      54

      51

      TOTAL BISHOP

      46

      44

      44

      Firm undecided (DO NOT READ)

      5

      1

      5

      Overall, Altschuler holds a slight 3-point lead over Bishop. Among the 91% of voters who have heard of both candidates, Altschuler widens his lead to 7 points. Most problematic for Bishop is that among the 71% of voters who have a firm opinion of both candidates, Altschuler's lead widens further to 10 points putting him well over 50%.

      (1) Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates conducted an 400 sample statewide survey of likely 2012 voters in NY CD 1 between October 10 & 11 that included both landline and cell phones. Professionally trained interviewers conducted the interviewing and the sample frame was stratified to reflect actual turnout in Presidential elections. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence interval.

      Key Survey Demographics:

      Political Party:








      Oct








      11


      Republican






      39


      Democrat






      30


      Independence






      5


      Conservative






      4


      Working Families






      -


      Not registered or affiliated with any political party

      18


      Other (DO NOT READ)





      1


      DK/Refused (DO NOT READ)



      3









      Age:



      Oct

      11





      18-34

      15





      35-44

      12





      45-54

      20





      55-64

      25





      65+

      25





      Refused (DO NOT READ)

      3




      Gender:



      Oct

       11




      TOTAL MALE





      48




      TOTAL FEMALE





      52




      Female, working outside the home


      26




      Female, homemaker





      20




      Female/Refused (DO NOT READ)


      5



      Area/Township:



       Oct
      11







      Smithtown

      14







      Brookhaven

      61







      East End Towns

      25







      Riverhead

      5







      Islip

      5







      Southold

      4







      East Hampton

      3







      Southampton

      8






      SOURCE Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc.

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