Gridwise Analytics Report Finds Drivers See Trips per Hour Fall Nearly Two Times Faster in Cities with Autonomous Vehicles

Drivers in AV-active cities are completing fewer trips per hour, while gross hourly pay is declining in three of five AV markets analyzed, even as pay rises nationwide

PITTSBURGH, Jan. 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Gridwise Analytics today released its 2026 Autonomous Vehicles Impact Report, a market-level analysis examining how the presence of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is impacting traditional, human rideshare performance across major U.S. cities.

Using proprietary Gridwise Analytics data from Q1 2024 through Q4 2025, the report analyzes driver activity and earnings in five U.S. markets with active AV deployments: Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco. These market trends are compared to nationwide benchmarks to better understand how human rideshare is being impacted as autonomous services scale.

Key Findings from the Report

• Trips per hour are declining nearly twice as fast in AV markets: Human rideshare drivers in AV-active cities saw trips per hour decline by 5.32%, compared to a 2.56% decline nationwide.
  
  
• Most AV markets are experiencing steeper productivity declines: Trips per hour fell faster in four out of five AV-active markets analyzed, including a nearly 10% year-over-year decline in Los Angeles.
  
  
• Lower productivity impacts hourly earnings: While nationwide hourly gross pay increased by approximately 2%, three major AV markets, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco, recorded year-over-year declines in hourly earnings.
  
  
• AV profitability requires pricing near $1/mile: According to S&P Global projections cited in the report, scalable autonomous rideshare profitability likely requires pricing near $1 per mile. Traditional human rideshare pricing remains closer to $3.25 per mile.
  
  
• Human rideshare remains central for the long term: S&P Global estimates AVs may not overtake human rideshare in the U.S. until approximately 2041.

"We're beginning to see signals that AV deployments are affecting human driver productivity and earnings in specific markets, but it's still early," said Ryan Green, CEO of Gridwise. "The data shows steeper declines in trips per hour and hourly earnings in several AV-active cities, but the transition to autonomy will be gradual and human drivers will continue to dominate rideshare for decades to come."

The full Autonomous Vehicles Impact Report 2026 is available now from Gridwise Analytics.

Methodology

This report analyzes proprietary Gridwise Analytics data from Q1 2024 through Q4 2025, examining year-over-year changes in human-operated rideshare performance across Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco, with a nationwide benchmark included for comparison.

Metrics analyzed include trips per hour, driver utilization, per-trip gross pay, hourly gross pay, quarterly gross pay, base pay, incentives, tips, and trip distance, with all earnings metrics excluding tips unless otherwise specified.

This analysis is powered by Gridwise's extensive anonymized gig mobility data, encompassing over 800 million trips and $8.5 billion in driver earnings.

SOURCE Gridwise