Half of Americans Believe President Obama Will Be Re-Elected in November

President Obama's job rating remains the same as last month

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Mar 22, 2012, 10:23 ET

NEW YORK, March 22, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- While the Republicans are still fighting it out for the nomination, President Obama remains out of the election fray and this may be helping his approval ratings hold steady. Just like last month, two in five Americans (40%) give the President positive ratings for the overall job he is doing while three in five (60%) give him negative ratings.

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,451 adults surveyed online between March 12 and 19, 2012 by Harris Interactive.

Looking at the possible swing states for the general election (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia) just over two in five Americans in these nine states (42%) give the President positive ratings while 58% give him negative marks.

By political party and ideology, just 7% of Republicans and 14% of Conservatives give President Obama positive ratings. Among Independents two-thirds (67%) give him negative ratings but just over half of Moderates (54%) feel the same. Among the President's party, three-quarters of Democrats (75%) give President Obama positive ratings and one-quarter (25%) give him negative ratings. Among liberals, two-thirds (67%) give the President positive marks and 33% give him negative ratings.

Direction of the Country and Most Important Issue

Another thing that has stayed the same from last month is the direction Americans think the country is going. Again this month over one-third of U.S. adults (34%) say things are going in the right direction while two-thirds (66%) say things are going off on the wrong track.

When it comes to the two most important issues for the government to address, it's almost all about the economy in some way. Over one-third of Americans (36%) believe the government needs to address employment and jobs while three in ten (30%) say it is the economy in general. One in five U.S. adults (21%) say the government should address healthcare while 12% say they need to deal with gas and oil prices and 11% say the issue is the budget deficit and national debt.

President Obama's re-election chances

Status quo seems to be a theme this month for President Obama. If the election for president were to be held today, it is close with 45% of Americans likely to vote for him, 49% unlikely to vote for him and 7% who are not at all sure. Last month, 48% of U.S. adults said they would be unlikely to vote to re-elect the President and 45% said they would be likely to do so. Looking at this by party, nine in ten Republicans (89%) and half of Independents (52%) would be unlikely to vote for him, while four in five Democrats (80%) would be likely to do so. In the likely 2012 swing states, 49% say they would be unlikely to vote for the President while 44% say they would be likely to vote for him.

When it comes to what Americans think will happen on Election Day, the numbers are moving and they are moving in the President's direction. Last month, over two in five Americans (46%) thought President Obama would be re-elected while 37% thought he would not be re-elected. This month, half (50%) of U.S. adults now believe he will be re-elected while 32% say that he will not be and 18% are not at all sure.

So What?

As the Republicans head into more primaries with a presumptive nominee but a battle to prove it, President Obama is on the sidelines and mostly free from their attacks. That seemed to help him last month and has at least allowed him to stay steady this month. But, as the overall economy ever so slowly inches back, the President now has to deal with rising gas prices putting a new crimp on people's wallets. If these high prices linger, the thoughts of a recovery may start to fade.

TABLE 1
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING – BY PARTY & IDEOLOGY
"How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?"

Base: All adults

	Total	Political Party			Political Ideology			2012 Swing States
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	2012 Swing States
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE	40	7	75	33	14	46	67	42
Excellent	8	1	16	7	5	7	17	10
Pretty good	32	6	58	26	9	39	50	32
NEGATIVE	60	93	25	67	86	54	33	58
Only fair	25	25	17	31	22	28	25	24
Poor	34	67	8	36	64	26	9	34

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia

TABLE 2
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING - TREND
"How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?"

Base: All adults

	TREND	Positive*	Negative**
	TREND	%	%
2012	March	40	60
	February	40	60
	January	36	64
2011	December	36	64
	November	34	66
	October	33	67
	September	32	68
	August	32	68
	July	38	62
	June	38	62
	May 19th	45	55
	May 9th	46	54
	April	38	62
	March	39	61
	Feb.	42	58
	Jan.	44	56
2010	Dec.	36	64
	Nov.	38	62
	Oct.	37	63
	Sept.	38	62
	Aug.	40	60
	June	39	61
	May	42	58
	April	41	59
	March	41	59
	Jan.	40	60
2009	Dec.	41	59
	Nov.	43	57
	Oct.	45	55
	Sept.	49	51
	Aug.	51	49
	June	54	46
	May	59	41
	April	58	42
	March	55	45

*Positive = excellent or pretty good. **Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 3
RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK
"Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten
off on the wrong track?"

Base: All adults

	TREND	Right Direction	Wrong Track
	TREND	%	%
2012	March	34	66
	February	34	66
	January	27	73
2011	December	24	76
	November	20	80
	August	16	84
	May	39	61
	January	37	63
2010	December	29	71
	April	39	61
2009	August	46	54
	January	19	72
2008	October	11	83
	February	23	69
2007	December	18	74
	February	29	62
2006	May	24	69
	February	32	59
2005	November	27	68
	January	46	48
2004	September	38	57
	June	35	59
2003	December	35	57
	June	44	51
2002	December	36	57
	June	46	48
2001	December	65	32
	June	43	52
2000	October	50	41
	June	40	51
1999	June	37	55
	March	47	45
1998	December	43	51
	June	48	44
1997	December	39	56
	April	36	55
1996	December	38	50
	June	29	64
1995	December	26	62
	June	24	65
1994	December	29	63
	June	28	65
1993	June	21	70
	March	39	50
1992	June	12	81
	January	20	75
1991	December	17	75
	January	58	32

TABLE 4
VOTING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA
"If the election for president were to be held today, how likely would you be to vote for the current president, Barack Obama?"

Base: All adults

	2011									2012
	May 9	May 19	June	July	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	March
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Likely	46	43	41	42	37	39	40	40	42	41	45	45
Very likely	33	32	30	30	27	26	26	30	29	30	33	33
Somewhat likely	14	11	11	12	10	13	13	10	13	11	12	12
Unlikely	47	49	52	52	55	53	54	53	51	52	48	49
Somewhat unlikely	7	8	7	8	7	7	8	6	8	7	5	6
Very unlikely	40	41	45	44	48	47	46	47	43	45	43	42
Not at all sure	6	8	6	6	7	8	6	7	7	7	7	7

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5
VOTING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA – BY POLITICAL PARTY
"If the election for president were to be held today, how likely would you be to vote for the current president, Barack Obama?"

Base: All adults

	Total	Political Party			Political Ideology			2012 Swing States
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	2012 Swing States
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Likely	45	8	80	40	16	50	74	44
Very likely	33	4	65	26	11	34	63	32
Somewhat likely	12	4	15	14	5	15	12	12
Unlikely	49	89	16	52	78	44	17	49
Somewhat unlikely	6	7	3	9	5	8	5	6
Very unlikely	42	81	13	43	73	36	13	43
Not at all sure	7	4	4	8	6	6	8	7

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia

TABLE 6
LIKELIHOOD OF OBAMA'S RE-ELECTION
"If you had to say now, do you think that President Obama will be re-elected, or not?"

Base: All adults

	2011					2012			Political Party
	July	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	March	Political Party
	July	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	March	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
I think he will be re-elected.	35	30	30	32	35	36	46	50	19	76	52
I do not think he will be re-elected.	42	47	49	46	44	41	37	32	58	11	32
Not at all sure.	23	23	21	23	20	22	17	18	23	12	16

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 7
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
"What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to address?"
Spontaneous, unprompted replies

Base: All adults

	'97	'98	'99	'00	'01	'02	'03	'04	'05	'06	07	08	09	10	10	'11	'11	'11	12	12
	May	Jan	Feb	Aug	Dec	Dec	June	Oct	Aug	June	Oct	Oct	Mar	Jan	Nov	Jan	May	Sept	Jan	Mar
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Employment/jobs	5	3	4	4	7	8	8	10	3	7	5	5	21	31	36	33	33	50	42	36
The economy (non-specific)	8	9	7	5	32	34	25	28	19	14	13	64	50	32	33	24	29	27	31	30
Healthcare (not Medicare)	10	11	12	15	5	10	14	18	11	12	25	22	25	45	30	35	18	17	21	21
Gas and oil prices	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	10	8	2	1	1	*	1	1	12	2	2	12
Budget deficit/National debt	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	3	X	8	12	17	13	12	11
Taxes	14	16	12	13	6	5	11	8	5	4	3	6	4	4	7	6	4	7	10	7
Budget/Government spending	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	5	6	2	6	7	10	13	9	11	9	7
Education	15	14	21	25	12	11	13	7	8	7	6	6	5	5	6	7	7	5	8	7
Immigration	2	1	*	1	1	1	2	2	3	20	12	3	4	5	8	8	10	6	6	5
Wars/Armed conflicts	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	6	3	2	4
Energy	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	4	4	1	4	3	1	1	1	2	1	1	3
Social security	6	6	24	16	3	2	4	4	10	5	3	3	1	1	4	3	3	7	3	3
Downsizing government	X	X	X	1	*	X	X	1	*	1	1	*	1	2	2	2	1	2	4	2
Environment	3	2	3	3	1	3	2	1	3	3	3	2	3	3	2	2	2	3	3	2
Dependency on foreign oil	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	2
Housing	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	*	*	1	2	2	6	1	1	2	1	2	2	2
Foreign policy (non-specific)	3	5	4	3	2	4	2	3	2	2	4	2	3	2	2	1	1	3	3	2
Human/civil/women's rights	2	1	*	1	1	1	*	1	1	1	2	*	*	1	1	1	1	1	2	2
Military/defense	2	2	2	4	4	1	5	3	1	4	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	2
(Programs for) the poor/ poverty	3	2	2	3	1	2	3	*	4	4	4	*	1	2	2	3	2	2	2	1
National security	X	X	2	2	6	3	6	5	2	2	2	5	2	4	1	1	1	1	2	1
Terrorism	X	X	X	X	22	17	11	7	7	4	4	3	4	6	2	2	4	1	2	1
Bipartisanship	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	2	1	1
Obama/president	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	*	*	1	1	*	1	1	1	1
Crime/violence	19	13	8	10	1	2	3	1	3	2	2	1	*	1	*	1	1	*	X	1
Ethics in government	*	*	*	*	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	*	1	1	1
Homeland/domestic security/public safety	X	X	X	X	8	9	3	6	2	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Medicare	4	5	5	6	1	1	4	3	2	1	3	2	*	*	2	1	2	1	1	1
Welfare	14	8	4	2	1	1	3	*	3	1	2	*	*	*	1	1	*	1	1	1
Inflation	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	2	3	*	1	*	1	1	1	1	1	1
Afghanistan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	*	1	*	*	*	1
Religion (decline of)	*	1	*	1	2	1	1	1	*	1	1	*	*	*	1	*	*	*	*	1
Same sex rights	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	2	*	*	1	1	1	*	*	*	*	1
Abortion	2	2	2	6	1	1	1	4	2	1	2	1	1	1	*	*	*	*	1	*
Homelessness	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	*	1	1	3	*	*	1	*	1	*	*	1	*
Business accountability/bailouts	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	*	*	1	*
Infrastructure	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	*	1	1	*	*
Iraq	*	*	1	X	X	11	3	9	6	8	14	7	2	2	1	*	*	*	*	*
Programs for the elderly (not Medicare/Social Security)	1	1	1	2	1	1	3	*	*	*	1	1	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Income gap/Wealth distribution/Middle class	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1	1	x	X	*
(The) war	X	X	X	X	12	18	8	35	41	27	24	14	9	2	4	3	*	1	*	X
Overspending/wasting money	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	2	x	X	X
Other	8	19	2	19	3	8	8	8	1	6	5	15	5	1	6	5	3	6	7	8
Not sure/refused/no issue	9	12	16	18	11	10	12	9	8	6	8	4	4	2	2	4	4	3	3	2

* = Less than 0.5%, X = Not mentioned as specific issue
Note: Prior to March, 2009, this question was asked via telephone

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between March 12 and 19, 2012 among 2,451 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J41436
Q1205, 1208, 1210, 1218, 1255

The Harris Poll^® #31, March 22, 2012
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

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SOURCE Harris Interactive