Half of energy will come from solar by 2035: ground-breaking climate modeling tool challenges previous energy projections

LONDON and SAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ - A new climate modeling tool is predicting a seismic shift in energy, spelling out how over half of global energy demand will be met by solar power by 2035.

The S-Curve model, developed by physicist and solar industry pioneer, Andrew Birch, reveals that a clean transition is inevitable, on current known trends.

"On current growth trends, solar is on track to displace 50% of traditional energy supply within a decade—this should scare you if you're still financing coal, oil or gas," says Birch, who has started some of the leading global solar companies over the last 20 years.

Birch is challenging decades of inaccurate solar energy forecasting, correcting a flawed equation at the heart of projections: he says the metric of primary energy is only applicable to fossil fuels, as over half of fossil fuel energy is wasted when it is burned. The S-Curve uses delivered energy as the correct metric, revealing that when we are powered by solar, the electric economy will require 60% less energy than previously cited.

And his model corrects another long-held assumption: that solar's cost reductions and growth rates are going to stop. "Year after year, analysts have been wrong," says Birch. "Solar's learning curve has never ended, in fact, its growth rate has increased. When you combine this growth trend with the lower energy needed with electrification you get a solar-dominated system within just 10 years."

Birch has been collaborating with Prof Andrew Crossland CEng, Professor in Practice at Durham University Energy Institute, analyzing how solar electrification can benefit consumers in energy markets around the world.

Prof Crossland says: "The compounding effect of continued solar growth will have a profound impact on the global energy mix—and make electricity cheaper, more resilient and lower carbon. We call on all Governments to engage more with solar and distributed energy now so that it enables the grid of tomorrow."

The S-Curve projects forward solar's historical trends, predicting that it will continue to fall in cost by 10% a year and grow at 25% a year. This will see solar energy eclipse nuclear power this year, eclipse oil by 2031, and deliver over half the world's energy by 2035 in a classic S-curve technology shift.

"We've been told a clean transition will cripple the economy, when in fact, it will save us $9 trillion dollars a year by 2035," says Birch. "All we need is a level playing field. Just watch how quickly dirty fuels die in a fair fight when we stop the subsidies and remove clean tech tariffs."

Links
Learn about the S-Curve here.
Andrew Birch's bio here.

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