Highlights from the January TTC/EY Tax Reform Business Barometer

Views on the prospects for, and key aspects of, tax reform

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Feb 09, 2016, 09:00 ET

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WASHINGTON, Feb. 9, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- The Tax Council and the Quantitative Economics and Statistics (QUEST) practice of Ernst & Young LLP conducted the first Tax Reform Business Barometer of 2016. Highlights from the latest survey of leading US tax executives and practitioners are below.

International-only tax reform: With regard to interest in an international-only reform, 21% think its enactment will increase the likelihood of enactment of a more comprehensive tax reform at a later date, while 51% believe it will hinder comprehensive reform.
Integration of individual and corporate income taxes: Half of respondents think there is at most a 10% probability that the Senate Finance Committee Chairman will release a discussion draft or proposal to integrate the individual and corporate income taxes to address the double tax on corporate earnings within the first quarter of 2016. Moreover, 74% of respondents think it is very or somewhat likely that the integration discussion draft or proposal will change the tax treatment of interest.
OECD BEPS project: Forty-three percent of respondents think that the OECD BEPS project will result in greater similarity of how countries tax the income of global companies, while 28% think harmonization will decrease.
Impact of the Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes (PATH) Act and tax reform: Fifty-six percent of respondents think the PATH Act makes US tax reform more likely, while 12% think the Act makes tax reform less likely and 32% think it has no impact.

Prospects for federal tax reform

Respondents continue to believe that tax reform will occur within the next several years (61% likelihood that tax reform will happen in 2018 or earlier). Consistent with the September 2015 Barometer results, respondents still believe 2017 is the most likely year for tax reform (31%).
Approximately 45% of respondents think reform will be comprehensive, 23% think it will include all businesses including both C corporations and pass-through businesses, 17% think it will affect only C corporations, and 13% think it will be international-only. These results are very similar to those reported in the September 2015 Barometer.
Respondents were asked about their expectations regarding the likelihood of the House of Representatives taking specific actions toward tax reform. Half of respondents believe there is at least a 50% probability that the House Ways and Means Committee Chairman will release a specific tax reform plan by the end of 2016. Additionally, half of the business tax professionals surveyed think it is at most 20% and 10% likely that the House Ways and Means Committee will mark up and report out of Committee tax reform legislation this year. Half of respondents think it at most 5% likely that the House will pass tax reform legislation this year.
Respondents thought it less likely (25% median likelihood) that the Senate Finance Committee chairman will release a specific tax reform plan by the end of 2016. Half of respondents thought the probability was less than 25% and half didn't believe there was any chance the Senate will pass tax reform legislation by the end of 2016.

About The Tax Council

The Tax Council is a Washington, DC-based non-profit, non-partisan, membership organization promoting sound tax and fiscal policies since 1966. Its membership is comprised of (but is not limited to) Fortune 500 companies, leading accounting and law firms, and major trade associations. The Tax Council provides various types of educational and networking events (e.g., luncheons, conferences, symposia) for its members to meet with key tax policy decision makers from the US Congress and Administration to discuss important current tax issues. The Tax Council's events provide excellent opportunities for its members to network and build stronger working relationships with government officials and colleagues in other businesses.

About EY

EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities.

EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com.

This news release has been issued by Ernst & Young LLP, a member firm of EY serving clients in the US and The Tax Council.

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