HR Ratings assigns a long term rating of HR BBB+ (G) to the Senior Bonds and of HR BBB (G) to the Subordinated Bonds issued by the CTRMA

MEXICO CITY, Oct. 20, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- HR Ratings de Mexico (HR Ratings) has assigned a long term rating of HR BBB+ (G) with Stable Outlook to the Senior Lien Revenue Bonds and of HR BBB (G) with Stable Outlook to the Subordinated Lien Revenue Bonds issued by the Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority (CTRMA or the Authority), based upon the degree to which revenues could fall in a stress scenario vs. our base scenario and still comply with required debt servicing charges.

The CTRMA is an independent inter-county government agency that operates two toll roads in Central Texas (183A and 290E), the revenues of which constitute the source of payment for the bonds. A third toll road (183 South) is currently under construction, and it is expected to open to traffic partially in August 2019, and fully a year later. The revenues collected in the 183 South roadway will also constitute the source of payment of the Authority's obligations.

The assigned ratings are based on the following considerations.

• Annualized Stress Rates (ASR). For the Senior Bonds, real term revenues could decline 50.7%, equivalent to an ASR of 2.37%. Regarding the Subordinated Bonds, real revenues could fall 45.7%, leading to an ASR of 1.83%.
• Historical traffic and revenue growth. Between 2008 and 2015 the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in transactions was 17.8%, and 18.4% in revenues.
• Our base scenario assumes a CAGR_15-49 for transactions of 3.8%. The CAGR_15-49 for real revenues would be 4.1%. These growth rates consider the incorporation between 2019 and 2020 of a project currently in the construction phase.
• Negative considerations. The ratings consider the possibility that the CTRMA could issue additional debt in the future, as well as the inherent construction risk of ongoing and future projects that could be incorporated within the System. Furthermore, HR Ratings regards as a potential risk the fact that the provisions for the Renewal and Replacement Fund are made subsequent to the Senior and Subordinated debt servicing.

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