IAB Raises 2026 U.S. Ad Spend Forecast to +12.3% YoY Growth, as Strong First Half Lifts Expectations

As AI Reshapes How Consumers Discover and Choose Brands, Advertisers Prioritize Customer Acquisition, Brand Equity and Visibility in AI-driven Discovery

NEW YORK, Sept. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), the leading trade organization for the digital advertising ecosystem, today released its 2026 Outlook Study: September Update, raising its full-year U.S. ad spend growth forecast to 12.3%, up 2.8 percentage points from its January projection of 9.5%.

Based on insights from more than 200 brand and agency ad investment decision-makers, the updated forecast follows a stronger-than-expected first half fueled by major cyclical events, including the Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup, along with easing buyer concerns about macroeconomic headwinds. The study also finds marketers prioritizing customer acquisition and brand equity as consumers become more discerning and AI transforms how people discover, evaluate, and choose brands.

"The first half was strong, major live events delivered, and advertisers have increasingly powerful tools in their arsenal to find and engage customers," said David Cohen, CEO, IAB. "At the same time, the economy has real areas of uncertainty. There is growth to be found, but there are no easy wins. When consumers are considering their next purchase, the brands that win will be connecting with them at the right time, in the right context, and with a compelling message."

Marketers Shift Their Focus to Winning New Customers

The updated outlook shows a clear shift in what advertisers want their media investments to accomplish. Customer acquisition, although usually the top media investment goal, jumped nine percentage points since January to 63%, while brand equity rose six points to 43%. Meanwhile, repeat purchases held essentially flat at 24%, after nearly doubling as a priority since 2024.

The change comes as consumers face persistent inflation and cautious sentiment, making shoppers more selective about where their money goes and more willing to switch brands and retailers. For advertisers, that creates both a need to reinforce brand strength and an opportunity to win undecided customers.

"Consumers are becoming more discerning. They're switching brands, paying for lower-priced brands and looking at store brands," said Chris Bruderle, Vice President, Industry Insights & Content Strategy, IAB. "For brands, that means two things. They need to make sure their brand equity is strong, particularly in AI environments. And if people are more willing to switch brands, there's an opportunity to acquire new customers."

Marketers Concerned About LLM Discovery and AI Slop

Marketers are increasingly focused on the consumer using AI platforms and what that means for discovery, consideration, and purchase.

Adapting to evolving consumer behavior, including AI-driven search, is now the top media investment challenge, cited by 44% of buyers. Concern about low-quality AI-generated content, or "AI slop," follows at 38%.

At the same time, optimizing content for AI-generated answers is now the No. 1 area of increased focus among buyers at 76%, followed by AI LLM models at 72%. Focus on generative AI use in media campaigns stands at 69%, compared with 78% in January.

"What we are seeing is a pretty meaningful evolution in the AI conversation," said Brudele. "Marketers have spent a lot of time asking, 'How can I use AI?' Now the question is becoming, 'How do I reach a consumer who uses AI?' People are discovering products and evaluating brands inside these environments. Marketers want to understand how their brands show up in those conversations and how that activity connects to everything else they know about the customer journey."

AI Is Changing the Consumer Journey Faster Than Marketers Can Measure It

That shift is creating a major measurement challenge, with 86% of buyers already changing, or expecting to change, how they measure media performance because of conversational AI tools and AI agents in the next 12 months.

The most common response, selected by 48% of buyers, is measuring brand visibility and citations directly within AI tools. Others are using branded search and direct traffic as proxies, adding third-party AI discovery analysis tools, monitoring AI-platform interactions and referrals, and increasing incrementality testing.

Yet buyers still struggle to connect those signals into a complete view of performance, with 45% citing the difficulty of comparing AI-driven and traditional customer journeys as their top measurement challenge.

"There are important conversations about brands and products happening inside AI environments every day, and marketers are still building the visibility they need into that journey," said Bruderle. "They know the consumer is there. They know these experiences can influence a purchase. Now they are figuring out how to connect those interactions to the signals and outcomes they have measured for years."

A New Playbook for Winning Attention

As audiences fragment across traditional search, conversational AI, commerce platforms, social media, and other discovery environments, advertisers are also changing how they reach consumers. The ad types receiving the most increased focus are:

• Creator and influencer advertising/partnerships: 54%
• Demo-targeted and cohort-based advertising: 53%
• Publishers with first-party data: 48%
• Contextual advertising: 45%

Together, those priorities point to a broader effort to build trust, identify valuable audiences, and stay visible as consumer discovery becomes more fragmented.

"The pieces really do connect," said Bruderle. "If consumers are moving across more places to discover products, marketers have to think differently about how they earn trust, how they identify the right audiences, and how their content gets found. Visibility is becoming part of the media strategy in a much broader way. It includes the creator someone trusts, the environment where an ad appears, and increasingly what an AI platform says when someone asks about your category or your brand."

Social, CTV, and Commerce Media Lead Growth

Digital channels continue to drive the expanding ad market.

The official 2026 Outlook Study: September Update, A Snapshot of U.S. Ad Spend, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth is available here for download, ahead of IAB's September marketplace series bringing together IAB CreatorFronts, IAB Podcast Upfront and IAB PlayFronts September 15–17 in New York.

About IAB
The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) empowers the media and marketing industries to thrive in the digital economy. Its membership comprises more than 700 leading media companies, brands, agencies, and the technology firms responsible for selling, delivering, and optimizing digital ad marketing campaigns. The trade group fields critical research on interactive advertising, while also educating brands, agencies, and the wider business community on the importance of digital marketing. In affiliation with the IAB Tech Lab, IAB develops technical standards and solutions. IAB is committed to professional development and elevating the knowledge, skills, expertise, and collaboration of the workforce across the industry. Through the work of its public policy office in Washington, D.C., the trade association advocates for its members and promotes the value of the interactive advertising industry to legislators and policymakers. Founded in 1996, IAB is headquartered in New York City.

SOURCE Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)