Illinois Chamber of Commerce, Three Economists, Blast Taylor & Roach Asian Carp Report as Unscientific, Inaccurate

CHICAGO, April 1 /PRNewswire/ -- The Illinois Chamber of Commerce released three independent peer reviews from economists strongly criticizing a report by John Taylor and James Roach that purports to assess the economic impact of closing the Chicago and O'Brien locks - which connect the Chicago Area Waterway to Lake Michigan – in an effort to impede the migration of the invasive Asian carp species. The three independent critiques note that Roach and Taylor's baseline mathematical calculations are based on speculation and conjecture, and that their report ignores the impact lock closure would have on the tourism industry and capital construction costs.

The critiques are given by notable economics experts from across the country with diverse areas of expertise in transportation and infrastructure. Ian Savage is a professor of economics at Northwestern University specializing in transportation issues, Michael Bronzini is a retired Dewberry Chair Professor from the School of Information Technology and Engineering at George Mason University and Jim Kruse is the Director of the Center for Ports and Waterways at the Texas Transportation Institute.

"These critiques of the Taylor & Roach report independently come to the same conclusion: the report is irresponsible and inaccurate. It attempts to trivialize the economic impact closing the Chicago and O'Brien locks would have on industries and infrastructures critical to the safety and economy of Chicago and Illinois.  As a result, it is an example of the worst kind of economics," said Jim Farrell, Executive Director of the Illinois Chamber of Commerce. "In those instances where actual calculations are offered, most of the baseline information is based entirely on speculation, and offers no verifiable data or citations to substantiate the calculations. This study manipulates the numbers to get a desired outcome and, therefore, has no basis in science."

"Independent peer review by multiple transportation experts had to be undertaken because the Taylor & Roach Report has been the only literature available in the public domain for the last two months," added Farrell. "If it was flawed, as the reviewers have concluded, it is imperative that the document be challenged in order that government officials and the interested public not be misled by assuming that because it was the only available report to review the economic impact of Chicago waterways it must be accepted as totally credible."

The Taylor and Roach report, issued in February, 2010, was commissioned as expert witness testimony by Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox following his failed appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to close the locks.

The Illinois Chamber of Commerce approached the three economists to analyze the Taylor and Roach report for accuracy in terms of scope, approach and methodology. All three showed critical errors had been made in terms of the scope of impact on local industries, assumptions made in the overall approach of the study and the data used, and flaws in the calculation methodology.

Specific criticisms across all three studies include that the Taylor & Roach report provides no data or analysis concerning tonnage traveling through the Chicago lock. The report limits its report to tonnage traveling through the O'Brien lock. Additionally, all three critiques note that report completely ignores the effect lock closure would have on the lucrative Chicago tour boat industry.

Some specific excerpts from the critiques are:

Bronzini

"The costing assumptions in the study are just that – assumptions. For example, the allocated costs of new transload facilities of $1 per ton is stated with little or no backup or justification."

"The study attempts to analyze the impacts of potential lock closures by assuming that shippers will freely be able to use transloading and mode shifts as an option, and by applying broad averages for operating costs. The detailed tables and numerical results give the study an appearance of rigor and validity. This is far from valid. Impact analysis must be based on an understanding of the actual circumstances and options attendant to individual shipments that now use the waterway, and the actual options and costs facing the individual shippers. The study does not provide that, hence it lacks validity."

Savage

"The paper assumes that there is no need to construct additional highway capacity, or realigned or strengthened existing facilities in the corridor parallel to the Calumet River." Savage notes that temporary closure of the locks would require 1,075 extra rounds of trips by truck each business day … "This would certainly indicate that road improvements, and more frequent repair due to high axle loads, will be necessary in this locale."

"Alternative A predicts about 7 million extra truck vehicle miles a year. The fatal crash rate for heavy trucks is about 1.6 per 100 million vehicle miles on urban roads according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, with an average of 1.15 fatalities per fatal crash. Pedestrians and other highway users bear a disproportionate amount of this risk compared with truck drivers."

"One might argue that the only 'real' piece of verifiable data in the entire paper is the total tonnage passing through the O'Brien Lock. The rest of the paper is an Excel spreadsheet that builds off of this number based on many conjectures, which may or may not be true."

Kruse

"The analysis seems to ignore the fact that many of these facilities have invested considerable sums of money in materials handling equipment, pipelines and rail connections … Therefore, a lock closure will dramatically affect their cost structure."

"It is my understanding that under extreme circumstances, it may be necessary to open the river system's locks and gates on Lake Michigan to prevent massive flooding. This, the invasive species of carp would still be able to enter Lake Michigan. If this is so, lock closures would only injure the region's economy and accomplish nothing.

To speak with spokespersons from the Illinois Chamber of Commerce, or with any of the authors of the three reports, please contact Patrick O'Connor at 312.573.5510 (office) or 512.659.0858 (cell).

SOURCE Illinois Chamber of Commerce