Inaugural BMO Wine Market Report: U.S. Wineries Optimistic about Sustained Sales Growth Over Next 5 Years

• 71% of U.S. wineries forecast revenue growth in 2024
• Key growth drivers include continued product innovation, increased on-premise direct-to-consumer sales and the 'premiumization' of wine
• Despite changing drinking habits, Millennial, Gen Z and Gen X now comprise 61% of all wine drinkers

NAPA VALLEY, Calif., May 15, 2024 /PRNewswire/ - BMO today announced the launch of the inaugural BMO Wine Market Report, a comprehensive and holistic examination of the U.S. wine industry. The report found the industry is now primed for stabilization and growth following a post-pandemic retraction, with 71% of wineries forecasting increased year-over-year revenue growth.

The U.S. wine industry is the largest and most dynamic in the world, with more than $107 billion in value generated by more than 11,000 wineries across 50 states. The BMO Wine Market Report is based on longitudinal consumer research,  comprehensive market data provided by partners WineBusiness and bw166, and proprietary insights from a survey of 630 wineries. It aims to provides context for today's industry trends, a thorough analysis on the future of the wine business, and expert advice for wineries on how to take full advantage of the opportunities ahead and prepare for market changes.

"We're excited to introduce the inaugural BMO Wine Market Report – the first of its kind," said Adam Beak, Head, Wine & Spirits, BMO Commercial Bank. "We've been a key partner to the U.S. wine industry for decades and this new report builds on our ability to offer our clients insights and expertise on the industry as it experiences a resurgence in growth. We are grateful to WineBusiness Analytics and bw166 for their support in producing this report and we look forward to their continued partnership in the years to come."

Cautiously Optimistic

While headwinds still persist in the industry, the survey results show wineries are feeling cautiously optimistic about sales growth over the next five years after a challenging destocking phase.

During the pandemic, wineries experienced an unprecedented increase in demand for wine; cases of wine sold jumped from 410 million per year to 445 million but has since steadily declined to 377 million cases last year. However, based on an analysis of historical data and survey results, the market should go through a stabilization, and even a growth period, this year.

• The stabilization of the industry should see a return to total market volume of between 400 to 415 million cases by next year as market destocking stabilizes and the market returns to pre-pandemic levels
• 71% of wineries expect 2024 revenue to increase compared with 2023, though 22% expect revenue will be flat and 6% expect a decline
• Among the largest wineries, 26% predict growth of more than 10%

Premiumization of Wine

Though wineries experienced total market volume declines, the sale of 'premium' wines have remained steady. Retail sales for wines that are priced at more than $10 per 750ml bottle are likely to grow through the end of 2024 and into next year.

• 40% of smaller, premium wineries producing between 1,000 and 5,000 cases are expecting growth of more than 10%, and 34% of wineries with an average price of more than $50 have similar expectations
• In 2023, sales of all wines in food stores priced more than $10 rose to $4.8 billion – 34% more than in 2019
• Nearly 30% of wine consumers purchase a wine priced more than $20 monthly, if not more often

Great Minds Drink Alike

The demographic of wine drinkers is beginning to diversify, both by ethnicity and age.

Millennial, Gen Z and Gen X now comprise 61% of all wine drinkers, while Baby Boomers are still a significant portion of wine drinkers.

• Hispanics are the fastest growing ethnic segment of wine drinkers in the U.S accounting for 13% of all wine drinkers in 2015 and 15% in 2023
• 52% of U.S. consumers 18-34 years old say they think moderate drinking is detrimental to health compared to 39% of all U.S. consumers

Join the Club

According to the BMO Wine Market Report survey, most wineries are looking to focus on growing sales in direct-to-consumer channels, with a specific focus on increasing wine club sales and wine club memberships.

• Nearly a quarter of all wineries (24%) are planning to increase wine club sales and expand wine club memberships
• 15% of wineries plan on increasing direct-to-consumer sales as a portion of their total revenue
• Wineries at the lower end of the price spectrum (<$10) are looking to focus on growth through increased wholesale sales or distribution while those that are at the higher end of the price spectrum ($50+) are turning to their wine club businesses to increase sales

Through its Wine & Spirits group, BMO provides a comprehensive suite of financial support for wineries throughout the U.S. To find out more, please visit: Wine & Spirits | BMO Commercial

BMO Financial Group is the eighth largest bank in North America by assets, with total assets of $1.3 trillion as of January 31, 2024. Serving customers for 200 years and counting, BMO is a diverse team of highly engaged employees providing a broad range of personal and commercial banking, wealth management, global markets and investment banking products and services to 13 million customers across Canada, the United States, and in select markets globally. Driven by a single purpose, to Boldly Grow the Good in business and life, BMO is committed to driving positive change in the world, and making progress for a thriving economy, sustainable future, and inclusive society.

BW166 LLC provides advisory services and data intelligence to the beverage alcohol industry. The company is also a partner in the Gomberg Fredrikson Report. The Gomberg Fredrikson report has been reporting on the US Wine Market since 1948.  BW166 also produces the Total Beverage Alcohol Report that provides data across Beer, Wine, and Spirits. Both reports use government tax paid data for volume reporting which is the most complete view of the US market. In addition, the company uses data from other government entities such as the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Census Department to add macro information on economics and demographics regarding the Beverage Alcohol Market.

WineBusiness Analytics maintains the wine industry's most accurate databases and provides data-driven analysis, data, insights and reports to help clients grow and manage their businesses. In addition to databases, the analytics group also publishes the monthly Wine Analytics Report. WineBusiness Analytics is part of the WineBusiness company that publishes the leading B2B magazine for the wine industry, Wine Business Monthly, maintains the industry's No. 1 jobs board at winejobs.com, is the leading source of daily wine news at winebusiness.com and hosts several conferences and tradeshows.

SOURCE BMO Financial Group