LONDON, Dec. 31, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Bioradar UK Ltd. announced today that analysis of 35,529 sequences in two H1N1 Replikins genes, from 1918 to 2013, indicates that the risk of a third H1N1 (Swine Flu) pandemic has increased.
The second H1N1 Pandemic of 2009 was predicted and published by Replikins Ltd. one year in advance, in 2008, by the same Replikins gene FluForecast® analysis.
The current quantitative reproduction of the following three gene changes which were forerunners in the build up to the second H1N1 pandemic of 2009 is unprecedented and is the basis of the gene prediction of H1N1 pandemic #3. Two Replikins genes were analyzed, one for Infectivity and one for Lethality. The Replikin Count (number of Replikins per 100 amino acids) in the Replikins Infectivity Gene increased at p<0.001 in 2013 in H1N1 to 8.9+/-2.3. The FluForecast® Replikin Count increase to that of 2008, 6.3+/-2.3, was the basis of the prediction published in 2008 of the second H1N1 pandemic, which was realized in 2009.
In another index of risk of outbreaks, the percent of gene Replikin Counts greater than 4.0 in the H1N1 virus population Replikins Infectivity Gene reached 97% in 2013; in the second H1N1 pandemic of 2009 it reached 96.4%. Finally, the percent of gene Replikin Counts greater than 4.0 in the Replikins Lethality Gene increased from 6% in 2010 to 44% in 2012 (p<0.001); % gene Replikin Counts greater than 4.0 in the Lethality Gene had also peaked at 46.5% in 2007, two years in advance of the second H1N1 pandemic of 2009.
The advance notice provided by Replikins genes FluForecast® prediction, for the first time, gives time to adequately test vaccines and to institute public health measures in animals and humans to reduce morbidity, mortality, and cost, towards the goal of better control and eventual prevention of pandemics. Detailed data have been submitted for publication.
A completely synthetic Replikins Vaccine H1N1Pan3™, is now available from Replikins Ltd. Based on the 35,529 sequences, it is specific for the third H1N1 (Swine Flu) pandemic, which the virus gene FluForecast® indicates is developing.
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