NEW YORK, Jan. 17, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
http://www.reportlinker.com/p0178048/India-Autos-Report-Q1-2013.html#utm_source=prnewswire&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=Passenger_Car
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI believes new forecasts released by the Society of Indian Automotive Manufacturers (SIAM) in
October 2012 are too bearish. SIAM now expects passenger car sales to grow by 1-3% for FY2013 from a
previous forecast of 10%. According to S Sandilya, the President of SIAM, the slowdown in economic
growth coupled with high interest rates will further decelerate growth.
However, we agree with the headwinds seen by SIAM for the Indian auto market and are also revising
our FY2013 forecasts for the overall passenger vehicle sales market downwards to come in at 2.86mn
units, a growth rate of 6.8% from 9.1% previously. On the whole though, we are more bullish on India's
auto industry than SIAM.
While SIAM citied the recent diesel price hike as one of the reasons to downgrade growth in passenger
car sales to 1-3%, we do not believe that the hike will have such a huge negative impact on this segment.
We do not expect the spread between diesel and petrol to narrow much further going forward due to
political pressures to maintain diesel subsidies. Although the price of diesel has increased, it is still much
cheaper than petrol. Therefore, the strong demand for diesel vehicles is expected to continue.
Moreover, while sales of passenger cars and vans have stagnated recently, utility vehicles (UVs) such as
MUVs have enjoyed very strong year-on-year (y-o-y) growth for the past few months. It is our view that
this segment will outperform the overall passenger vehicle market going forward and we expect this
strong growth in UV sales to continue and provide an additional boost to overall passenger vehicle sales
for FY2013.
BMI also believes that SIAM's commercial vehicle (CV) forecast revisions are overly bearish and we are
taking a more bullish stance. We are revising our CV sales growth forecast to 7.1% from 12.9
%previously to hit 867,000 units by end FY2013. It was BMI's view last year that the CV segment would
easily outperform passenger car sales due to demand for construction and infrastructure projects and it
played out well for us. While we do not think such strong growth rates will continue, we see no reason to
be overly bearish on this segment.
Executive Summary
. 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
India Auto Industry SWOT . 6
India Political SWOT . 7
India Economic SWOT ... 8
India Business Environment SWOT ... 9
Global Overview . 10
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform ... 10
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12 ... 10
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On .. 10
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 15
Table: Business Environment Ratings -- Auto Industry Asia Pacific 18
Regional Overview . 19
Japanese Autos: Outlining The Bear Case Alternatives 19
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .. 25
Table: India - GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown 27
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 28
Production And Sales 28
Table: India Autos Sector - Sales And Production, 2009-2017 28
Trade 29
Table: India Autos - Trade, 2009-2017 29
Industry Developments.. 30
Passenger Vehicles - Forecast and Analysis . 32
Production And Sales 32
Table: India Autos Sector - Passenger Cars, 2009-2017 . 32
Company Developments 32
Commercial Vehicles - Forecast and Analysis ... 37
Production And Sales 37
Table: India Autos Sector - Commercial Vehicles, 2009-2017 37
Company Developments 38
Motorcycles - Forecast and Analysis .. 42
Production And Sales 42
Table: India Autos Sector - Motorcycles, 2009-2017 ... 42
Company Developments 42
Automotive Suppliers - Analysis . 46
Segment Developments . 46
Company Developments 47
Company Monitor ... 49
Mercedes Takes Knocked-Down Route To Asia ... 49
Company Profiles ... 51
Hyundai ... 51
Maruti Suzuki ... 52
Tata Motors . 53
Mahindra and Mahindra.. 54
Bajaj Auto 55
Demographic Outlook 57
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 58
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ... 59
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ... 60
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 60
BMI Methodology ... 61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 61
Automobile Industry . 62
Sources 62
To order this report:
Passenger_Car Industry: India Autos Report Q1 2013
Nicolas Bombourg
Reportlinker
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