India Autos Report Q1 2013

Jan 17, 2013, 06:20 ET from Reportlinker

NEW YORK, Jan. 17, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:


India Autos Report Q1 2013




Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI believes new forecasts released by the Society of Indian Automotive Manufacturers (SIAM) in

October 2012 are too bearish. SIAM now expects passenger car sales to grow by 1-3% for FY2013 from a

previous forecast of 10%. According to S Sandilya, the President of SIAM, the slowdown in economic

growth coupled with high interest rates will further decelerate growth.

However, we agree with the headwinds seen by SIAM for the Indian auto market and are also revising

our FY2013 forecasts for the overall passenger vehicle sales market downwards to come in at 2.86mn

units, a growth rate of 6.8% from 9.1% previously. On the whole though, we are more bullish on India's

auto industry than SIAM.


While SIAM citied the recent diesel price hike as one of the reasons to downgrade growth in passenger

car sales to 1-3%, we do not believe that the hike will have such a huge negative impact on this segment.

We do not expect the spread between diesel and petrol to narrow much further going forward due to

political pressures to maintain diesel subsidies. Although the price of diesel has increased, it is still much

cheaper than petrol. Therefore, the strong demand for diesel vehicles is expected to continue.

Moreover, while sales of passenger cars and vans have stagnated recently, utility vehicles (UVs) such as

MUVs have enjoyed very strong year-on-year (y-o-y) growth for the past few months. It is our view that

this segment will outperform the overall passenger vehicle market going forward and we expect this

strong growth in UV sales to continue and provide an additional boost to overall passenger vehicle sales

for FY2013.


BMI also believes that SIAM's commercial vehicle (CV) forecast revisions are overly bearish and we are

taking a more bullish stance. We are revising our CV sales growth forecast to 7.1% from 12.9

%previously to hit 867,000 units by end FY2013. It was BMI's view last year that the CV segment would

easily outperform passenger car sales due to demand for construction and infrastructure projects and it

played out well for us. While we do not think such strong growth rates will continue, we see no reason to

be overly bearish on this segment.




Executive Summary

. 5

SWOT Analysis . 6

India Auto Industry SWOT . 6

India Political SWOT . 7

India Economic SWOT ... 8

India Business Environment SWOT ... 9

Global Overview . 10

UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform ... 10

Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12 ... 10

Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On .. 10

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 15

Table: Business Environment Ratings -- Auto Industry Asia Pacific 18

Regional Overview . 19

Japanese Autos: Outlining The Bear Case Alternatives 19

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .. 25

Table: India - GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown 27

Industry Forecast Scenario ... 28

Production And Sales 28

Table: India Autos Sector - Sales And Production, 2009-2017 28

Trade 29

Table: India Autos - Trade, 2009-2017 29

Industry Developments.. 30

Passenger Vehicles - Forecast and Analysis . 32

Production And Sales 32

Table: India Autos Sector - Passenger Cars, 2009-2017 . 32

Company Developments 32

Commercial Vehicles - Forecast and Analysis ... 37

Production And Sales 37

Table: India Autos Sector - Commercial Vehicles, 2009-2017 37

Company Developments 38

Motorcycles - Forecast and Analysis .. 42

Production And Sales 42

Table: India Autos Sector - Motorcycles, 2009-2017 ... 42

Company Developments 42

Automotive Suppliers - Analysis . 46

Segment Developments . 46

Company Developments 47

Company Monitor ... 49

Mercedes Takes Knocked-Down Route To Asia ... 49

Company Profiles ... 51

Hyundai ... 51

Maruti Suzuki ... 52

Tata Motors . 53

Mahindra and Mahindra.. 54

Bajaj Auto 55

Demographic Outlook 57

Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 58

Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ... 59

Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ... 60

Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 60

BMI Methodology ... 61

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 61

Automobile Industry . 62

Sources 62




To order this report:

Passenger_Car Industry: India Autos Report Q1 2013


Nicolas Bombourg
US: (805)652-2626
Intl: +1 805-652-2626



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