ISR Foundation: Park Geun-hye Becomes South Korea's First Female President with 50.8% of Majority Popular Vote, the Largest Share Since 1971
19 Dec, 2012, 04:35 ET
"Ms. Park's Presidential Victory by the Slimmest of Margins" is Forecasted by the ISR Foundation, an Asian-American Think Tank
WASHINGTON, Dec. 19, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The International Strategy and Reconciliation Foundation, an Asian-American think tank, forecasts a "presidential election victory" by Park Geun-hye, the leader of a conservative party, winning a popular vote majority of 50.8 percent over the progressive candidate Moon Jae-in. She becomes the first female president in South Korean history by capturing such a majority vote since the 1971 presidential election, blazing a new trail for women in a deeply patriarchal country in East Asia.
Dr. Asaph Chun, who developed the ISR election forecasting model in 2003 and proved its viability in the past four US elections as well as South Korean elections, identifies Ms. Park's winning formula is grounded on "decisively winning the 4 of 7 battleground provinces mostly in Southeast, East coast, Mideast, and Southern Island that tended to follow conservative-line in past South Korean presidential elections. The ISR G3 model predicts the human-rights lawyer Moon would reap 48.3 percent of popular vote by sweeping voters in Southwest and winning the majority of voters in the capital Seoul by less than one percent over Ms. Park. The "ready female president effect" Ms. Park sustained has neutralized the "change effect" charismatic Moon demonstrated, erasing his 11th hour gains on the rise.
According to the ISR G3 forecasting model, designed to reduce "polling house effect" and make a viable voting prediction of "undecided voters," the strong-will Ms. Park who likens herself to Margaret Thatcher is expected to take an average lead of 10% to 50% among females, and the aged 50 or older whereas Moon's lead comes among the young aged 39 or younger, and independent voters. Among voters aged 40-49, Moon's lead over Ms. Park is expected to be over five percentage points, which is much smaller than he wished. Sampling error varies from 1.5 to 3.1 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence for different groups.
ISR G3 model has proved its forecasting viability by accurately predicting the last South Korean presidential election and the past three U.S. presidential election results since 2004 as well as the 2006 mid-term elections of the Senate and 2008 elections of the Senate and the House when most polling firms were not successful of forecasting competitive U.S. election outcomes. For additional information on the 2012 South Korean election forecasting of ISR, contact the ISR Foundation at [email protected].
ABOUT the ISR Foundation. The International Strategy and Reconciliation Foundation, a Washington-based Asian-American think tank, studies elections forecasting, runs international conflict and reconciliation management, and conducts education and public health programs with emphasis on the disadvantaged people. Leaders representing ISR Foundation include Honorary Chairman Chanmo Park, former President of Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH); International Chairman Syngman Rhee , former Moderator of Presbyterian Churches USA; Chairman Asaph Chun , a renowned survey methodologist; Professor John Yoon of Mercy College, NY; and Professor and Dean Jaechun Kim of Sogang Graduate School of International Studies.
SOURCE ISR Foundation
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