Looking Elsewhere: External Searches in California's Hottest Markets More than Double the U.S. Average

SANTA CLARA, Calif., May 31, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- California's housing affordability crisis is prompting residents to look for homes in less expensive areas or outside of the state. New research from realtor.com^®, The Home of Home Search℠, reveals affordability issues are driving California residents to search for homes in Phoenix, Las Vegas and Prescott, Ariz., as well as in more affordable California counties. In 16 of California's hottest markets -- including Santa Clara, San Mateo and Los Angeles -- outbound home searches are two times greater than the U.S. average.

The analysis examines realtor.com^® home searches in the 16 California counties and American Community Survey migration estimates. Search data includes both outbound searches and the ratio of search traffic viewing pages outside of an area versus outside traffic coming in. The ACS data includes the domestic migration ratio, which is the ratio of net migration less international migration, relative to the population.

"Our research shows many California residents may have reached their breaking point," said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com.^® "Affordability is pricing them out of the California home market and many are searching for more affordable options in other areas. This exodus could help slow price appreciation in California, but potentially heat up prices and reduce inventory in surrounding markets. If this pattern continues, we could see Californians drive up home prices in parts of Phoenix, Las Vegas and Prescott, Ariz."

In addition to Santa Clara, San Mateo and Los Angeles, the top California counties where residents are leaving, according to ACS migration patterns, are split between the Northern and Southern areas of the state. In rank order, they include: Napa, Monterey, Alameda, Marin, Orange, Santa Barbara, San Diego, Imperial, Ventura, San Francisco, Santa Cruz, Tulare, and Sonoma.

California median list prices have increased 83 percent over the last six years, to $549,000 from $300,000, outpacing local income growth by three times. According to realtor.com^®'s analysis, 52 percent of residents looking outside their county are looking to move outside California to nearby states. The top 10 out of state destinations include, in rank order, Phoenix (Maricopa County, Ariz); Las Vegas (Clark County); Prescott (Yavapai County, Ariz.); Boise (Ada County, Idaho); Reno, (Washoe County, Nev.); Lake Havasu (Mohave County, Ariz.); Pima County, Ariz.; Coeur d'Alene (Kootenai County, Idaho); Austin (Travis County, Texas); and the Big Island (Hawaii County, Hawaii). Most of the counties on this list offer California residents relatively close proximity to California, dry and sunny weather, as well as more affordable home prices. On average, those searching out of state are looking at properties that are 43 percent more affordable than their current county.

Additionally, nearly half -- 48 percent -- of those searching outside their county are looking within California. The top 10 in state counties most searched by those looking to leave their county include: Riverside, San Bernardino, Los Angeles, Orange, Sacramento, San Diego, Placer, Contra Costa, El Dorado, and Ventura County. Those searching in other California counties are looking at properties that are on average 17 percent more affordable.

Top Destinations by California Market

1. Santa Clara County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Idaho
In state destinations: Alameda, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Santa Cruz and Placer counties

When looking out of state, shoppers from Santa Clara are looking at far more affordable properties in Maricopa, Ariz.; Clark, Nev.; Washoe, Nev.; Travis, Texas; and Ada, Idaho counties that are $750,000 to $965,000 less than the typical property in Santa Clara. Within California, they are looking at properties in nearby counties of Alameda, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Santa Cruz and Placer that are $509,000 - $894,000 less than the Santa Clara median.

2. San Mateo County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Washington
In state destinations: Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Sacramento, and San Francisco counties

San Mateo shoppers are looking at far more affordable counties when shopping out of state. The properties they look at in Maricopa, Ariz.; Clark, Nev.; Washoe, Nev.; Travis, Texas; and King, Wash. counties are $778,000 – $1.1 million less than the typical San Mateo property. Those looking in state are looking in nearby counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Sacramento, and San Francisco and considering properties $274,000 - $1.1 million less than the median price in San Mateo.

3. Los Angeles County
Out of state destinations: Nevada, Arizona, and Idaho
In state destinations: San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and Kern counties

Angelenos looking out of state are viewing homes priced well below the Los Angeles median. The typical home they view in Clark, Nev.; Maricopa, Ariz.; Yavapai, Ariz.; Mohave, Ariz.; and Ada, Idaho counties is $306,000 - $455,000 below the typical listing at home. Shoppers looking in state are generally looking at properties that are $22,000 - $446,000 less expensive than their current market price. However, homes viewed in nearby Orange County are $34,000 more expensive.

4. Napa County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Florida and Oregon
In state destinations: Solano, Sonoma, Sacramento, Lake and El Dorado counties

Napa's out of state searchers in Maricopa, Ariz; Ada, Idaho; Washoe, Nev.; Brevard, Fla.; and Deschutes, Ore. counties are looking at properties that are $170,000 to $450,000 less expensive than the market price in Napa. Those looking in nearby California counties of Solano, Sonoma, Sacramento, Lake and El Dorado counties are looking at properties priced $120,000 to $484,000 less than the market price in Napa.

5. Monterey County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho
In state destinations: San Luis Obispo, Fresno, Santa Cruz, Sacramento and San Diego counties

Monterey out of state shoppers are viewing homes in Maricopa, Ariz; Washoe, Nev.; Yuma, Ariz.; Ada, Idaho; and Clark, Nev. that are $494,000 - $749,000 less expensive than the typical listing at home. Those looking to stay in state are looking in counties like San Luis Obispo, Fresno, Santa Cruz, Sacramento and San Diego and specifically at properties that are $314,000 - $664,000 less than the market price in Monterey.

6. Alameda County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, and Hawaii
In state destinations: Contra Costa, San Joaquin, Sacramento, Placer, and El Dorado counties

Shoppers are viewing homes in Maricopa, Ariz. and Ada, Idaho well above the local market median which is still a $300,000 - $400,000 bargain compared to Alameda. In Clark and Washoe counties in Nevada and Hawaii, they are viewing homes priced below the local median listing price and between $300,000 and $500,000 below the typical Alameda listing. Within California, they are generally shopping for a home $160,000 - $415,000 below their current median in counties such as Contra Costa, San Joaquin, Sacramento, Placer and El Dorado.

7. Marin County
Out of state destinations: Nevada, Arizona, Oregon and Idaho
In state destinations: Sonoma, Contra Costa, Solano and San Francisco counties  

Out of state shoppers viewing homes in more affordable counties such as Washoe, Nev.; Maricopa, Ariz.; Pima, Ariz.; Deschutes, Ore.; and Ada, Idaho are looking at homes generally priced $621,000 - $1 million less than the typical listing in Marin. Shoppers looking within state are looking at properties in Sonoma, Contra Costa, Solano and San Francisco counties, priced $167,000 - $937,000 less than the market price in Marin.

8. Orange County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada and Idaho
In state destinations: Riverside, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego and San Luis Obispo

The typical Orange County out of state shopper is looking in Maricopa, Ariz.; Clark, Nev.; Yavapai, Ariz.; Ada, Idaho; and Mohave, Ariz. counties at properties that are $442,000 - $592,000 less than the typical property in Orange County. Those looking to stay in state are looking in nearby counties of Riverside, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego and San Luis Obispo at properties priced $192,000 - $527,000 less than the typical property in Orange County.

9. Santa Barbara County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada and Idaho
In state destinations: San Luis Obispo, Ventura, Los Angeles, Riverside and Kern counties

When looking out of state, shoppers from Santa Barbara are looking at far more affordable counties such as Maricopa, Ariz.; Clark, Nev; Yavapai, Ariz.; Kootenai, Idaho; and Mohave, Ariz and view properties that are $481,000 - $661,000 less than the typical property in Santa Barbara. Those looking nearby are interested in the counties of San Luis Obispo, Ventura, Los Angeles, Riverside and Kern and homes priced $47,000 - $667,000 less than the Santa Barbara median price.

10. San Diego County
Out of state destinations: Arizona and Nevada
In state destinations: Riverside, San Bernardino, Imperial, Orange County and Los Angeles

Out of state shoppers are looking at homes in Maricopa, Ariz.; Clark, Nev.; Yavapai, Ariz.; Mohave, Ariz.; and Pima, Ariz. counties that are priced $324,000 - $444,000 less than the typical property in San Diego. Shoppers viewing properties within state are looking at homes in Riverside, San Bernardino, Orange County, Los Angeles and Imperial counties. The properties they look at in Riverside, San Bernardino and Imperial are $289,000 - $429,000 less expensive than the typical property in San Diego, but in Orange County and Los Angeles, they are $86,000 - $106,000 more than the San Diego median list price.

11. Imperial County
Out of state destinations: Arizona and Idaho
In state destinations: San Diego, Riverside, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Orange counties

Shoppers looking outside of Imperial are viewing significantly more expensive properties than the Imperial housing market. The typical home they are looking at in counties like San Diego, Riverside, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Orange is $32,000 - $705,000 more than the median price in Imperial. Out of state shoppers are looking at homes in Yuma, Ariz.; Maricopa, Ariz.; Ada, Idaho; and Coconino priced $15,000 - $179,000 below the typical listing in the Imperial, although the typical home looked at in Yavapai, Ariz. is $71,000 more.

12. Ventura County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho
In state destinations: Los Angeles, Kern, Riverside and San Bernardino counties

Out of state Ventura shoppers are looking at less expensive homes in Maricopa, Ariz.; Clark, Nev.; Yavapai, Ariz.; Ada, Idaho; and Mohave, Ariz. counties that are $298,000 - $507,000 less than the typical property in Ventura. Shoppers looking in state are searching in Los Angeles, Kern, Riverside and San Bernardino counties at homes that are $2,000 - $457,000 less than the median price in Ventura, but properties they look at in Santa Barbara County are $152,000 more.

13. San Francisco County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Oregon
In state destinations: Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo, Sonoma, and Sacramento

When looking out of state, shoppers from San Francisco are looking at properties in Maricopa, Ariz.; Clark, Nev.; Washoe, Nev.; Cook, Ill.; and Multnomah, Ore. counties that are $841,000 - $1.0 million less than the typical property in San Francisco. Those looking in state are typically searching in Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo, Sonoma, and Sacramento counties for properties that are $390,000 - $940,000 less than the San Francisco median list price.

14. Santa Cruz County
Out of state destinations: Nevada, Arizona, Hawaii, and Oregon
In state destinations: Monterey, Placer, El Dorado and San Luis Obispo

When looking out of state, shoppers from Santa Cruz are looking at properties in Washoe, Nev.; Maricopa, Ariz.; Hawaii, Hawaii; Douglas, Nev.; and Deschutes, Ore. counties that are $450,000 - $585,000 less than the typical property in Santa Cruz. Properties they look at in state in the nearby counties of Monterey, Placer, El Dorado and San Luis Obispo are typically $313,000 - $480,000 less expensive than the Santa Cruz median price. However, the properties they look at in Santa Clara are $184,000 more expensive than Santa Cruz.

15. Tulare County
Out of state destinations: Nevada, Arizona, Kansas and Idaho
In state destinations: Fresno, San Luis Obispo and Los Angeles

Very little of Tulare's demand flows out of state but top out of state locations include Nevada, Arizona, Kansas and Idaho. When looking out of state, shoppers from Tulare are looking at properties in Clark, Nev.; Maricopa, Ariz.; Johnson, Kan.; Ada, Idaho; and Yavapai, Ariz. counties that are $11,000 - $111,000 more expensive than the typical property in Tulare. Those looking to remain in state are viewing properties in Fresno, San Luis Obispo and Los Angeles that are $26,000 - $600,000 more expensive than Tulare, but properties in Kings and Kern County are $9,000 - $10,000 less expensive.

16. Sonoma County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Idaho, Oregon and Nevada
In state destinations: Lake, Mendocino, Placer, Sacramento and El Dorado counties

When looking out of state, shoppers from Sonoma are looking in Maricopa, Ariz.; Ada, Idaho; Pima, Ariz.; Jackson, Ore.; and Washoe, Nev. counties at properties that are $176,000 - $376,000 less than the typical property in Sonoma. Shoppers looking in state are typically looking in Lake, Mendocino, Placer, Sacramento and El Dorado counties at properties that are $186,000 - $458,000 less than the Sonoma median price.

For more California migration data, please visit realtor.com/research.

About realtor.com^®

Realtor.com^®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers the most comprehensive source of for-sale MLS-listed properties, among competing national sites, and access to the information, tools and professional expertise to help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com^® is operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS^®. For more information, visit realtor.com.

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Lexie Puckett Holbert: [email protected]

SOURCE realtor.com

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