Market and Product Forecasts: Disease Modification in Rheumatoid Arthritis - Novel Therapies Plus Reformulations Poised to Enter the Market
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The launch of novel oral drugs and reformulations of current brands are expected to fuel growth across the seven major markets, rising from $12bn in 2010 to $18bn by 2020. TNF inhibitors will remain dominant market players, but the growing enthusiasm for non-TNF biologics at earlier lines of therapy is predicted to continue over the next decade and serves as an additional growth driver.Gain insight into the RA competitive landscape and assess commercial opportunity using 10-year patient-based forecasts with clear methodology.Access current and future patient-numbers and expand knowledge on potential future events that may impact these.Evaluate existing and potential future brand dynamics by line of therapy; from first- through to fourth-line and beyond.Enhance understanding of future product potential, with key opinion leader views of late stage kinase inhibitors, such as tofacitinib and FosD.Gauge the anticipated impact of reformulations on patient switching and the subsequent effect on total brands sales.With two novel kinase inhibitors forecast to launch for rheumatoid arthritis and key brand reformulations set to enter the market over the next decade, Datamonitor's patient-based forecast shows that the market will grow to reach $18bn in 2020.Despite news of deaths in a Phase III trial of Pfizer's tofacitinib, physicians remain upbeat on this potential game-changer, stating that while safety is a concern for new drugs, the deaths mirror those seen in the era prior to biologics. Datamonitor forecasts favorable uptake of tofacitinib, reaching sales of $1.2bn by 2020 in the major markets.Opinion leaders verify rising interest to adopt non-TNF biologics earlier in the algorithm, due to familiarity and more experience of their side-effects. With Bristol-Myers Squibb gaining US approval of subcutaneous Orencia (abatacept) in July 2011, this reformulation adds positively to its lifecycle and it will benefit from this projected trend.What impact has the deaths in a Phase III trial of tofactinib had on its potential future uptake across the seven major rheumatoid arthritis markets?What is the future outlook in terms of patients and sales for 2009 market entrants Cimzia and Simponi and how does this compare to older TNF brands?How will the launch of subcutaneous formulations of marketed intravenous drugs Orencia and Actemra change their usage and impact future brand sales?How will first-, second-, third- and fourth-line and beyond biologic brand dynamics change in the rheumatoid arthritis markets over the coming decade?How will each of the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) evolve in terms of patients from 2010 to 2020?
OVERVIEW
•Catalyst
•Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
•Strategic scoping and focus
•Datamonitor key findings
•Related reports
MARKET DEFINITION
•Market definition for rheumatoid arthritis
•Forecast methodology and assumptions
- Methodology flow
- Patent expiries
- New product launches
•Additional forecast methodology
SEVEN MAJOR MARKETS OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
•Current and future market dynamics overview
- US market bolstered by reformulations and new product launches in the near-term
- Launch of additional biologics and uptake of existing brands will grow the Japanese rheumatoid arthritis market
- EU austerity measures including price cuts will dampen growth across these rheumatoid arthritis markets
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- UK
BRAND FORECASTS
•Enbrel rheumatoid arthritis (etanercept; Amgen/Pfizer/Takeda)
- Forecast assumptions
- Enbrel forecast 2010–20
•Humira rheumatoid arthritis (adalimumab; Abbott/Eisai)
- Forecast assumptions
- Humira forecast 2010–20
•Remicade rheumatoid arthritis (infliximab; Janssen Biotech/Johnson & Johnson/Merck & Co./Mitsubishi Tanabe)
- Forecast assumptions
- Remicade forecast 2010–20
•Simponi rheumatoid arthritis (golimumab; Janssen Biotech/Johnson & Johnson/Merck & Co./Mitsubishi Tanabe)
- Forecast assumptions
- Simponi forecast 2010–20
•Cimzia rheumatoid arthritis (certolizumab; UCB/Otsuka Pharmaceuticals)
- Forecast assumptions
- Cimzia forecast 2010–20
•Actemra/RoActemra rheumatoid arthritis (tocilizumab; Chugai/Roche)
- Forecast assumptions
- Actemra/RoActemra forecast 2010–20
•Orencia rheumatoid arthritis (abatacept; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- Forecast assumptions
- Orencia forecast 2010–20
•Rituxan/MabThera rheumatoid arthritis (rituximab; /Roche/Chugai/Biogen Idec)
- Forecast assumptions
- Rituxan/MabThera forecast 2010–20
•Tofacitinib rheumatoid arthritis (formerly tasocitinib, CP-690,550; Pfizer)
- Forecast assumptions
- Tofacitinib forecast 2010–20
•FosD rheumatoid arthritis (fostamatinib disodium; AstraZeneca/Rigel)
- Forecast assumptions
- FosD forecast 2010–20
BIBLIOGRAPHY
•Journal papers
•Websites
•Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX
•Contributing experts
•Forecast methodology
- Volume and value forecast methodology
- Price and compliance assumptions
- Physician sample breakdown
- Primary research questions
•Report methodology
TABLES
•Table: Summary of therapeutic classes in rheumatoid arthritis, by ATC code, 2011
•Table: Patent expiry dates for key marketed brands in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, out to 2020
•Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline products and marketed brands in rheumatoid arthritis in the seven major markets, 2010–20
•Table: Rheumatoid arthritis market sales across the seven major markets, by class ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen/Pfizer/Takeda) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Humira (adalimumab; Abbott/Eisai) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Remicade (infliximab; Janssen Biotech/Johnson & Johnson/Merck & Co./Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Simponi (golimumab; Janssen Biotech/Johnson & Johnson/Merck & Co./Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Cimzia (certolizumab; UCB/Otsuka Pharmaceuticals) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Actemra/RoActemra (tocilizumab; Chugai/Roche) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Orencia (abatacept; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Rituxan/MabThera (rituximab; /Roche/Chugai/Biogen Idec) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis in the US and five major EU markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Tofacitinib (formerly tasocitinib, CP-690,550; Pfizer) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Table: FosD (fostamatinib disodium; AstraZeneca/Rigel) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis in the US and five major EU markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Table: Rheumatologists surveyed regarding rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, 2010
FIGURES
•Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for rheumatoid arthritis, 2011
•Figure: Rheumatoid arthritis market sales of key marketed and pipeline products across the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Rheumatoid-arthritis-specific sales in the US, by key marketed and pipeline products ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Rheumatoid-arthritis-specific sales in Japan, by key marketed and pipeline products ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Rheumatoid-arthritis-specific sales in the five major EU markets, by key marketed and pipeline products ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Rheumatoid-arthritis-specific sales in France, by key marketed and pipeline products ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Rheumatoid-arthritis-specific sales in Germany, by key marketed and pipeline products ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Rheumatoid-arthritis-specific sales in Italy, by key marketed and pipeline products ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Rheumatoid-arthritis-specific sales in Spain, by key marketed and pipeline products ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Rheumatoid-arthritis-specific sales in the UK, by key marketed and pipeline products ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen/Pfizer/Takeda) sales forecast in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, by country, ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Humira (adalimumab; Abbott/Eisai) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Remicade (infliximab; Janssen Biotech/Johnson & Johnson/Merck & Co./Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Simponi (golimumab; Janssen Biotech/Johnson & Johnson/Merck & Co./Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Cimzia (certolizumab; UCB/Otsuka Pharmaceuticals) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Actemra/RoActemra (tocilizumab; Chugai/Roche) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Orencia (abatacept; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Rituxan/MabThera (rituximab; Roche/Chugai/Biogen Idec) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis in the US and the five major EU markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: Tofacitinib (formerly tasocitinib, CP-690,550; Pfizer) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis across the seven major markets, ($m), 2010–20
•Figure: FosD (fostamatinib disodium; AstraZeneca/Rigel) sales forecasts in rheumatoid arthritis in the US and five major EU markets, ($m), 2010–20
Companies Mentioned
F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Hutchison 3G UK Limited, Johnson & Johnson
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