Mitt Romney Leads Republican Pack, but One-Quarter of Republicans Not Sure Who Their Primary Pick Would Be

Rudy Giuliani only possible Republican to beat President Obama, but Romney makes it a 2-point race

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May 23, 2011, 10:44 ET

NEW YORK, May 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The 2012 Republican primary field is an ever changing and fluid one. The first primary is less than ten months away and there is clearly still no front-runner. Some who could have claimed that mantle, such as Mike Huckabee, have made the decision to not move forward with a run this year. Others who were grabbing a lot of the spotlight thanks to media attention, such as Donald Trump, also have decided not to run. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney is the "front runner" right now with 14% of his party saying they would vote for him in the primary followed by Mike Huckabee (12%) and Newt Gingrich (10%). Even among Republicans, no other candidate garners over 8% of the vote and one-quarter (23%) are not at all sure.

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,184 adults surveyed online between May 9 and 16, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Three in ten Conservatives (29%) are also not at all sure who they would vote for, while Romney and Huckabee each get 12% of the Conservative vote. No other potential Republican candidate gets above 9%. Among Independents, a different person leads the pack – Ron Paul garners 10% of Independents' votes in the GOP primary followed by Mitt Romney (9%); two in four Independents (39%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary. Among those who support the Tea Party, 12% would vote for Mitt Romney and 11% for Mike Huckabee while 22% are not at all sure.

On the flip side, there are certain possible Republican candidates who people would never vote for in a primary. It may be a good thing he decided not to run as two in four Republicans say they would never vote for Donald Trump (39%). Three in ten Republicans would never vote for Sarah Palin, while almost one-quarter (22%) would never vote for Ron Paul. Just under one in five Republicans say they would never vote for Michele Bachmann (18%), Newt Gingrich (18%) and Jon Huntsman (17%). Among Independents, three in five say they would never vote for Sarah Palin (60%) and Donald Trump (59%), while two in five would never vote for Newt Gingrich (40%).

Republicans versus President Obama

Looking at possible Republican candidates, two do well against President Obama but only one possible Republican candidate would beat the President right now. In a head to head match up, 51% of Americans would vote for Rudy Giuliani while 49% would vote to re-elect President Obama. Mitt Romney is on the other side of those numbers as 49% would vote for the former Massachusetts governor while 51% would vote to re-elect the President. Among other declared or potential Republican candidates, Ron Paul does next best (45% vs. 55% for the President), then Newt Gingrich (44% vs. 56%), Mitch Daniels (43% vs. 57%), Gary Johnson (43% vs. 57%), and Rick Santorum (43% vs. 57%). Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin would each get 42% of the vote and Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman and Donald Trump would each get 41%.

So What?

Almost half of Americans say they are not likely to vote to re-elect President Obama if the election were held today. However, it is clear that among his possible challengers, there is clearly no one candidate who is ahead of the others. While voters may be slightly disenchanted with the President right now, if at least a few Republicans fail to pull ahead of the pack soon, there may not be enough time for them to make the case why they are the better candidate for next November. At least the media is done with the Donald and his potential run.

TABLE 1 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION "If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?" Base: All adults
	Total March 2011	Total May 2011	Party ID			Philosophy			Tea Party Support
	Total March 2011	Total May 2011	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	Tea Party Support
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Mitt Romney	10	10	14	9	9	12	10	6	12
Mike Huckabee	8	8	12	4	8	12	6	4	11
Rudy Giuliani	8	8	7	7	8	4	9	8	7
Donald Trump	10	7	8	6	8	7	7	7	7
Ron Paul	NA	6	4	7	10	6	5	9	7
Sarah Palin	7	5	8	4	3	7	3	4	7
Newt Gingrich	5	4	10	1	3	9	2	1	9
Herman Cain	NA	2	3	1	3	5	*	2	5
Mitch Daniels	2	2	5	1	2	3	2	2	5
Tim Pawlenty	2	2	2	1	3	3	2	1	4
Michele Bachmann	2	2	2	1	1	3	1	2	3
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	NA	1	1	1	1	*	1	3	1
Gary Johnson	NA	1	*	1	2	*	1	1	1
Rick Santorum	1	*	*	*	1	*	*	*	*
Not at all sure	45	42	23	56	39	29	49	48	22
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.

TABLE 2A 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?" Base: All adults
	Would vote for
	President Obama	The Republican nominee
	%	%
Donald Trump	59	41
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	59	41
Herman Cain	59	41
Sarah Palin	58	42
Tim Pawlenty	58	42
Michele Bachmann	58	42
Rick Santorum	57	43
Gary Johnson	57	43
Mitch Daniels	57	43
Newt Gingrich	56	44
Ron Paul	55	45
Mike Huckabee	52	48
Mitt Romney	51	49
Rudy Giuliani	49	51
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2B 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?" Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee Base: All adults
	Total March 2011	Total May 2011	Party ID			Philosophy			Tea Party Support
	Total March 2011	Total May 2011	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	Tea Party Support
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani	51	51	86	19	54	81	45	15	86
Mitt Romney	49	49	87	16	52	82	42	9	85
Mike Huckabee	48	48	87	15	49	80	40	14	85
Ron Paul	NA	45	78	14	49	78	36	10	79
Newt Gingrich	44	44	82	11	45	77	34	12	81
Mitch Daniels	44	43	78	11	45	74	34	12	81
Gary Johnson	NA	43	78	11	44	76	32	12	78
Rick Santorum	43	43	78	12	43	75	33	10	79
Michele Bachmann	41	42	78	10	43	75	32	12	78
Tim Pawlenty	44	42	78	12	42	76	32	10	77
Sarah Palin	42	42	78	13	38	77	30	11	76
Herman Cain	NA	41	78	11	40	75	31	10	77
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	NA	41	77	11	41	74	32	9	76
Donald Trump	45	41	72	15	39	69	32	13	73
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.

TABLE 3 NEVER VOTE FOR "Assuming these were candidates in the 2012 presidential election, who would you never vote for?" Base: All adults
	Total May 2011	Party ID			Philosophy			Tea Party Support
	Total May 2011	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	Tea Party Support
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Donald Trump	58	39	74	59	49	59	74	40
Sarah Palin	57	30	78	60	32	64	82	28
Newt Gingrich	41	18	61	40	22	43	68	23
Michele Bachmann	34	18	52	31	18	37	58	20
Ron Paul	31	22	43	26	20	32	48	21
Rick Santorum	27	15	42	24	16	26	52	16
Herman Cain	26	16	37	25	18	26	42	19
Rudy Giuliani	26	13	35	26	19	22	47	17
Mike Huckabee	25	9	42	21	10	27	49	12
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	25	17	34	21	17	24	41	20
Gary Johnson	25	16	36	21	17	25	40	19
Tim Pawlenty	24	12	38	19	13	25	43	15
Mitch Daniels	24	14	34	21	15	24	40	17
Mitt Romney	23	9	38	19	11	24	43	12
Note: Multiple responses accepted

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between May 9 to 16, 2011 among 2,184 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

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Q1225, 1226, 1228

The Harris Poll® #61, May 23, 2011

By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

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SOURCE Harris Interactive