MoonFox Data: JD.com Q3 profits exceeded expectations and the "low prices & supply chain" combo approach showed initial effectiveness

CHENGDU, China, Dec. 12, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- About us: Aurora Mobile (NASDAQ: JG) established in 2011, is a leading customer engagement and marketing technology service provider in China. Its business includes notification services, marketing growth, development tools, and data products. As its sub-brand, MoonFox Data is a leading expert in data insights and analysis services across all scenarios, aiming to help companies gain market insights and empower precise decision-making.

During the earnings season, the business performance of JD.com has been attracting widespread market attention. In Q3 2023, the company's retail business revenue reached 212.059 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.06% year-on-year and accounting for 85.6% of the group's overall businesses. The retail businesses encompass self-operated businesses, platform businesses, and advertising services, with self-operated businesses being the core contributors.

In terms of categories, 3C and home appliances remained the core business of JD.com, generating a total revenue of 119.316 billion yuan, while daily necessities recorded a revenue of 75.988 billion yuan. Overall, the company's quarterly performance continued to face challenges under the core low-price strategy, but it has experienced market growth and a significant increase in users behind the agonies.

I. JD.com adjusts the core approach to launch a low-price combo

JD.com MAU & MoM growth from January to October 2023

According to MoonFox iApp data, JD.com App's monthly active users (MAU) exceeded 521 million in October 2023, with a MoM growth of 3.8%. The steady growth of MAU has significantly contributed to the company's three low-price tactics related to business attraction, subsidies, and procurement.

Business attraction involves enabling and supporting third-party merchants to conduct business on this open platform, offering more appealing and competitively priced vertical categories and products. JD.com launched the "Spring Dawn" initiative in early 2023, stipulating that the platform will not distinguish between self-operated and POP (third party) products and will adjust the algorithm to direct traffic to low-priced items. As a result, the number of new merchants on JD.com surged by 417% year-on-year in Q2. At present, the initiative has been further upgraded to provide additional support and benefits related to traffic and services for stores, thus assisting third-party merchants in enhancing product sales and conversion rates.

Subsidies constitute a crucial aspect of the 10 billion large-scale profit-sharing program, which is a key strategy for attracting new users and penetrating lower-tier markets.

JD.com App and WeChat mini-program users by city in October 2023

According to MoonFox iApp data, the user base of the JD.com App and mini-program is increasingly shifting towards lower-tier cities. Users from third-tier cities on these two platforms accounted for 20.3% and 21.1%, respectively, approaching the user concentration levels in new first-tier cities.

Firstly, in the "Spring Dawn" initiative mentioned above, the ten-billion subsidy program is an important part and aims to assist third-party merchants in increasing their earnings while offering products at competitive prices through financial support. The data indicates that the GMV contributions of current third-party merchandise subsidies exceed 50%. JD.com aims to attract more third-party merchants to reshape the platform ecosystem.

Secondly, from the users' perspective, the 10 billion subsidies truly enable consumers to purchase goods at lower prices, making them more appealing to users. According to official data from JD.com, the total number of 10 billion subsidized goods during the Double 11 period doubled compared to the 618 Shopping Festival, and the one-key price drop protection initiative saved users a total of 564 million yuan. Meanwhile, the turnover from the 9.9 free shipping and the flash sale channel campaigns saw a significant increase. Currently, JD.com's focus remains on 3C products, supplemented by low-priced and high-discount flash sale products such as daily necessities, providing a strategic guarantee for the platform to capture medium- and low-consumption user groups.

The third tactic around procurement made this year's Double 11 of JD.com slightly distinct from previous years.

This year, JD.com ventured into Procurement Personnel Livestreaming to explore new avenues. Unlike traditional e-commerce livestreaming, these livestreaming studios are simpler, more casual, and more authentic. The livestreaming covers a wider range of product categories (such as mobile phones and TV discount live broadcast rooms) and is primarily hosted by front-line procurement personnel. Examples of promotional language include no placement fees and recommender commissions, lower prices, and a 50% discount. Official data shows that as of 24:00 on Double 11, the number of audiences in JD Procurement Personnel Livestreaming studios exceeded 380 million, securing multiple-fold sales growth for many brands.

In summary, the low-price strategy has shown initial results, and JD.com achieved new highs in commodity turnover, order volume, and platform user numbers during 2023 Double 11. Compared with other e-commerce platforms, JD.com was able to firmly promote low-price strategy and maintain market competitiveness in the 3C categories, which are closely related to its strong supply chain capabilities.

II. Diving into supply chains to ensure continuous profitability in the logistics business

Data from the financial report indicates that in 2023 Q3, the revenue of JD Logistics reached 41.662 billion yuan, marking a YoY increase of 16.5%. JD Logistics has sustained profitability since achieving full-year profitability in 2022. Specifically, revenue from integrated supply chain customers amounted to 19.605 billion yuan, representing a YoY increase of 7.5%, while revenue from other customers totaled 22.06 billion yuan, reflecting a YoY increase of 25.7%.

The extensive coverage and high goods turnover are critical in creating competition barriers for JD Logistics.

Firstly, in terms of coverage, data from the financial report demonstrate that as of the end of September 2023, JD.com's warehouse network had covered the vast majority of districts and counties in China, including over 1,600 warehouses operated by JD.com and more than 2,000 cloud warehouses operated by third-party owners on the cloud warehouse ecological platform. Secondly, JD Logistics' special warehouse allocation mode ensures high turnover. By employing the regional and forward-looking warehouse mode, the platform can predict the demands for 3C categories and other goods in different regions through the decision system and proactively ship the goods to the warehouses nearest to consumers, significantly reducing shipping and delivery time for both merchants and users.

The combination of extensive coverage and a forward-looking warehouse enables JD Logistics to achieve impressive turnover for large customers. Meanwhile, JD.com is highly concerned with the business needs of merchants and is dedicated to empowering their capabilities on the solution side. According to the financial report, JD.com built the first-ever forward and reverse logistics integrated warehouse for Panasonic in August 2023. The warehouse takes charge of inspecting and recovering returned goods and directly shipping or reselling the qualified goods, thereby significantly shortening the handling time of returned goods and cutting transportation and other logistics-related costs for cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.

JD.com has set up a competitive and industry-recognized barrier to serve brand customers. Moreover, it is also building a brand fortress based on the rapid service system.

JD Express mini-program MAU & MoM growth from January to October 2023

According to MoonFox iApp data, the monthly active users (MAU) of JD Express's mini-program exceeded 17.75 million in October 2023. The comprehensively upgraded service system ensures the continuous growth of active users and the industry penetration rate of JD Express.

The upgrade of JD Express service is primarily reflected in three aspects:

First, there will be mandatory compensation for failure to collect packages within one hour. The courier will contact the consumer within 10 minutes of placing an order and will pick up the order at the doorstep within one hour upon confirmation. Rapid response can effectively enhance consumer trust in the platform, alleviate shopping pressure, and increase purchase desire. Second, on-time delivery is ensured. Any delayed deliveries will be compensated by the platform. The requirements for some business segments are even stricter. For example, in the case of Express Delivery and Fresh Food Express Delivery, if goods are delivered late due to reasons beyond the consumer's control, the platform will offer coupons or actively refund money to consumers depending on the circumstances. Third, door-to-door delivery options are available for both shipping and delivery services. The platform will offer corresponding compensation if it is confirmed that goods were not delivered to consumers' doorsteps.

The service system built around compensation approaches is recognized by consumers. According to 2023 Q3 survey data from the Chinese State Post Bureau, the top three express services in the satisfaction ranking are JD Express, SF Express, and EMS. The company outperforms the industry average in addressing complaints related to poor services, illegal charges, package loss, and delayed delivery. JD Express has currently further upgraded its services in Hong Kong and Macao to strengthen the interconnection with mainland China. We believe that the steady growth in revenue and active user scale of JD Express assure the group's overall business development and implementation of the low-price strategy.

III. Short-term operations are under pressure with a positive outlook for long-term strategies

On the whole, the current development of JD.com is transforming. Initiatives such as the introduction of third-party merchants and attempts to venture into livestreaming and multiple subcategories will bring both opportunities and challenges for the company. Looking ahead, we believe:

First, JD.com's short-term revenue may face pressure, but the profit margins are considerable under the cost reduction and efficiency enhancement approaches. In Q3 2023, JD. achieved a net profit of 10.6 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 5.9%, and the net profit margin was 3.2%, marking an increase of 0.8%. While the low-price strategy has some impact on overall revenue, the company is still able to maintain overall profit growth by relying on supply chain advantages and several cost control measures. We believe that the net profit result has proven the feasibility of JD.com's strategic transformation, and the low-price strategy will steadily be advanced with the support of the aforementioned business strengths.

Second, while exploring the low-tier market remains worthwhile, the priority should remain on fulfilling the 3C demands of core users. In the eyes of some consumers, genuineness and low prices are inherently contradictory. But for the core users of JD.com, product quality and after-sales service hold greater importance. The business focus should be on ensuring access to third-party merchants while upholding product quality. In the future, JD.com is expected to continue developing the low-tier markets, particularly focusing on daily necessities and livestreaming, while imposing stricter selection and control on merchants in the 3C categories. It is anticipated that JD.com will further integrate its supply chain advantages and low-price strategy to offer more cost-effective products and services to consumers.

Aurora-Moonfox consistently monitors industry development and regularly tracks corporate performance. The following is our research report on industry hotspots:

• 《Image-Text Content, Hot Items, and Seeding Drive the Rapid Growth of RED Community》；
• 《Tencent focuses on the WeChat ecosystem and leverages mini-programs to create the second growth curve》；
• 《NetEase Q3 Financial Report Game-driven Multi-segment Growth》；

If you need a report, please contact us to obtain it.

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