Mounting stress on lower-income Americans signals darkening consumer prospects going into crucial US holiday trading season--Bain/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes

BOSTON, Nov. 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Prospects for the US consumer are darkening as mounting signs of financial and economic stress for lower-income Americans intensify risks of a downturn ahead for consumer demand, November findings from the Bain & Company/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes (CHI) indicate.

In the latest adverse signals for US consumers' prospects from the CHI data, this month's readings show a continuing steep deterioration in conditions for lower-income consumers (earning below $50,000 per year). Growing signs of strain among this less well-off group of Americans include a protracted five-month-long slide in the CHI outlook gauge for the group, in parallel with an abrupt plunge in their spending intentions this month, as well as a sharp fall in their intent to save.

The souring of conditions for lower-income earners was the key driver of a drop in the CHI's headline outlook gauge of consumer prospects across all US income groups, which fell by 0.8 points in October, to 99.4, taking it into negative territory below the indexes' neutral level of 100.

The CHI outlook gauge for the lower-income group extended a slide that began during the summer, dropping by 0.5 points to a reading of 95.6 for this month, casting a further shadow over the consumer. The current downward trend is the worst for any period, except for that following the onset of COVID-19, and points to worsening labor market conditions for these earners, the Bain/Dynata report concludes. The latest signals of a weakening job market from the CHI numbers follow the steep downward revisions to official US payrolls data announced before the recent government shutdown.

Alongside the continuing slide in the outlook scores for lower-income households, the group's spending intentions have also dropped sharply, with the CHI gauge of these tumbling 5.6 points this month, to 94.7 – well below the neutral 100 level. The further sign of increased consumer fragility also pushes the CHI lower-income spending intent score towards lows not seen since the pandemic: a further fall in spending intent of the magnitude seen this month would match the pullback in the reading seen during the pandemic.

Sudden declines in the CHI measure of spending intentions for lower-income consumers have been seen before and have often subsequently corrected back to prior levels, the report observes. But it warns that the November fall in spending intent is more alarming since it coincides with the sharp drop in the group's savings intentions. The CHI intent to save score for lower-income Americans fell by 3.1 points this month, to 88.8, taking it to its lowest in the last two years – and to a level just 4 points above COVID-era all-time lows for the data series.

"The concurrent declines in both spending intent and saving intent readings for this month among lower-income households provide a stronger warning sign for conditions faced by this group. Savings intent is falling off a cliff for these earners. This confirms that the labor market concerns that emerged early in the summer are resulting in significant changes in economic behaviors," Brian Stobie, vice president at Bain & Company's Macro Trends Group, said.

"Coupled with warnings over less well-off consumers' situation in recent high-profile earnings calls by US companies, our data suggests that when the government begins releasing official data series again the news will not be good. While upper-income consumers and, to an extent, middle-income consumers are holding up, the readings for lower-income earners are in serious decline. Lower-income Americans are clearly facing stiff challenges in the job market."

The Bain/Dynata report also warns that the divergence in prospects across US income groups could trigger more challenging conditions for some consumer-facing businesses going into the crucial holiday trading season. Today's CHI report includes Bain analysis based on credit-card transaction data, showing how US retailers' relative reliance on different income groups varies widely by segment. "Upper-income households may well ensure that many companies experience largely normal demand in this holiday season. But other businesses may find conditions deteriorating. This divergence increases the importance for businesses to know the source of their revenue and demand," Stobie added.

For more details and the full report (PDF), please click here  or get in touch with the media contacts below.

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About Dynata

Dynata is the world's largest first-party data company for insights, activation, and measurement. With a reach that encompasses 70 million consumers and business professionals globally and an extensive library of individual profile attributes collected through surveys, Dynata is the cornerstone for precise, trustworthy quality data. The company has built innovative data services and solutions around its robust first-party data offering to bring the voice of the customer to the entire marketing continuum — from uncovering insights to activating campaigns and measuring cross-channel marketing return on investment. Dynata serves more than 6,000 market research, media and advertising agencies, publishers, consulting and investment firms, and corporate customers in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Learn more at www.dynata.com

SOURCE Bain & Company