Negative Equity Falls in Second Quarter, But National Home Values Continue to Decline

Double Tax Credits Buoy Most California Markets As Home Values Continue Dramatic Declines in Florida and Arizona According to Q2 2010 Zillow® Real Estate Market Reports

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Zillow.com

Aug 09, 2010, 08:00 ET

SEATTLE, Aug. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- Home values in the United States continued to decline in the second quarter of 2010, with the Zillow Home Value Index(1) falling 3.2 percent year-over-year and 0.6 percent from the first quarter to $182,500. The national rate of decline decelerated from the first quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of slowing declines, and negative equity(2) fell to 21.5 percent, according to the second quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports(3).

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Negative equity, which refers to the percentage of single-family homeowners with mortgages who are underwater, fell from 23.3 percent in the first quarter, and from 23 percent one year ago.

Conditions varied among individual markets across the country. In California, where both federal and state tax credits are available to some homebuyers, more than a quarter (27.8 percent) of markets tracked by Zillow saw increases in home values in the past year. Home values in five California markets have increased for the past five quarters, and four of those have increased by more than 5 percent since the second quarter of 2009. The Zillow Home Value Index was up 7.3 percent year-over-year in the San Diego metropolitan statistical area (MSA); up 5.9 percent in the San Francisco MSA; up 5.6 percent in the San Jose MSA; and up 5.5 percent in the Los Angeles MSA.

Meanwhile, home values in Florida and Arizona continued to show dramatic declines, with home values in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA falling 15.2 percent year-over-year and home values in the Phoenix MSA falling 11.8 percent.

"As the national housing market limps toward stabilization, individual markets are a mixed bag," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "The double tax credits for some California homebuyers have certainly stimulated housing demand there and are partly responsible for the rapid – and likely unsustainable – rates of appreciation in many markets across the state. While there is some uncertainty about how home values will respond in those markets once all incentives are removed, it's certain they can't continue at their current rates of appreciation, but is unlikely they will re-test the low points reached in 2009.

"Markets in other parts of the country, like Miami and Phoenix, are not yet showing signs of reaching a bottom in home values. High supply continues to be a challenge in states like Florida and Arizona.

"Nationally, home values are moving in the right direction as rates of decline continue to slow. There is a large unknown on the horizon, however, as these second quarter numbers are still heavily influenced by the federal homebuyer tax credits, which were available for homes under contract by the end of April. Home sales are declining significantly in the post-tax credits environment, but the impact of falling home sales on already-declining home values is yet to be seen. Recent trends in home values suggest the nation could reach a bottom in the latter half of 2010, but we continue to be cautious about the impact of declining home sales."

Foreclosures(4) again reached a new peak in June, with more than one out of every 1,000 (0.11 percent) U.S. homes being foreclosed upon during the month.

Foreclosure re-sales(5) fell in June, making up 16.9 percent of all U.S. home sales during the month, down from a 2010 high of 19.8 percent in February. Foreclosure re-sales continued to be high in most markets hit hardest by value declines. For example, they made up 55.8 percent of June sales in the El Centro, Calif. MSA, 54.6 percent in the Madera, Calif. MSA and 53.6 percent in the Merced, Calif. MSA. Additionally, more than one-fourth (26 percent) of home sales nationwide sold for less than what the seller originally paid.


Metropolitan Statistical Areas	Zillow Home Value Index
Metropolitan Statistical Areas	June 2010	QoQ Change	YoY Change	Change from Peak	Negative Equity*
United States	$182,460	-0.6%	-3.2%	-23.9%	21.5%
Akron, OH	$117,213	0.4%	-2.7%	-14.1%	26.1%
Albany, NY	$188,323	1.5%	-1.1%	-5.8%	10.7%
Allentown, PA	$191,234	-0.3%	-1.7%	-16.0%	16.8%
Anderson, SC	$99,300	1.5%	2.4%	-9.6%	n/a
Ann Arbor, MI	$157,432	-1.2%	-10.6%	-32.2%	33.0%
Atlanta, GA	$142,461	-1.9%	-6.0%	-22.2%	31.5%
Atlantic City, NJ	$200,906	-0.3%	-5.0%	-27.2%	20.2%
Augusta, GA	$107,414	1.1%	-6.4%	-8.3%	14.5%
Bakersfield, CA	$136,554	1.9%	-1.4%	-50.5%	44.6%
Baltimore, MD	$238,527	-1.1%	-5.1%	-19.2%	19.0%
Bellingham, WA	$255,500	0.6%	-1.3%	-10.1%	n/a
Bend, OR	$167,531	-2.7%	-21.8%	-52.6%	40.3%
Boston, MA	$331,568	3.2%	3.4%	-16.8%	8.3%
Boulder, CO	$312,583	2.1%	-0.4%	-1.9%	9.9%
Bremerton, WA	$249,020	-1.0%	-4.3%	-19.0%	18.6%
Canton, OH	$102,763	-0.2%	-1.7%	-13.6%	23.6%
Cape Cod, MA	$318,026	0.4%	-2.8%	-22.7%	6.9%
Champaign-Urbana, IL	$131,512	0.7%	-2.2%	-3.9%	11.1%
Charleston, SC	$170,039	0.0%	-5.1%	-15.7%	22.0%
Charlotte, NC	$148,985	0.1%	-4.0%	-10.4%	27.3%
Chattanooga, TN	$126,967	-2.6%	-2.1%	-4.7%	n/a
Chicago, IL	$196,987	1.6%	-4.4%	-27.2%	28.9%
Chico, CA	$203,749	2.9%	-0.4%	-32.1%	24.7%
Cleveland, OH	$119,716	1.5%	-1.3%	-16.4%	28.8%
Cleveland, TN	$123,000	2.8%	0.5%	-6.0%	n/a
Colorado Springs, CO	$189,793	-0.0%	-2.0%	-7.4%	28.4%
Columbia, SC	$122,065	0.0%	-2.1%	-5.7%	17.3%
Columbus, OH	$137,578	-0.3%	-2.8%	-8.4%	26.4%
Corvallis, OR	$244,300	0.8%	-4.4%	-9.6%	n/a
Cumberland, MD	$83,500	3.57%	2.10%	0.0%	n/a
Dayton, OH	$102,713	-0.2%	-3.1%	-12.9%	22.6%
Daytona Beach, FL	$108,300	-1.7%	-12.8%	-51.4%	n/a
Denver, CO	$215,969	1.0%	2.5%	-7.4%	29.1%
Des Moines, IA	$144,550	2.3%	-0.1%	-2.8%	18.6%
Destin, FL	$159,290	0.3%	-3.8%	-37.3%	37.8%
Detroit, MI	$87,147	-1.6%	-14.3%	-46.0%	31.4%
Durham, NC	$180,886	2.3%	3.6%	0.0%	8.4%
El Centro, CA	$112,086	-2.2%	-11.3%	-56.3%	57.5%
Eugene, OR	$193,793	-1.8%	-6.3%	-16.8%	12.8%
Fayetteville, NC	$114,036	-0.7%	-7.0%	-7.0%	11.5%
Flagstaff, AZ	$254,385	-3.4%	-9.8%	-29.5%	19.9%
Fort Collins, CO	$219,522	1.2%	1.2%	-3.1%	13.0%
Fort Myers, FL	$120,479	-0.1%	-6.5%	-60.2%	51.9%
Fresno, CA	$153,117	-0.4%	-4.7%	-47.8%	38.5%
Gainesville, FL	$146,253	1.8%	-7.8%	-23.2%	22.6%
Grand Junction, CO	$177,344	-4.2%	-12.6%	-20.8%	31.2%
Grand Rapids, MI	$116,111	-0.6%	-0.4%	-18.3%	33.0%
Green Bay, WI	$142,896	0.2%	-0.7%	-5.2%	15.7%
Greensboro, NC	$125,125	-0.4%	-5.3%	-12.1%	11.7%
Greenville, SC	$132,853	2.3%	-0.4%	-1.8%	11.6%
Hanford, CA	$118,400	1.1%	-14.7%	-45.4%	n/a
Hartford, CT	$224,393	2.2%	1.4%	-9.9%	8.3%
Jackson, TN	$95,800	2.1%	0.7%	-3.4%	n/a
Jacksonville, FL	$136,265	-3.2%	-10.7%	-34.6%	49.8%
Jacksonville, NC	$140,700	-0.4%	0.5%	-0.5%	n/a
Johnson City, TN	$110,100	2.6%	-3.6%	-14.3%	n/a
Knoxville, TN	$134,741	1.7%	-4.4%	-6.3%	9.4%
Lakeland, FL	$99,695	-5.3%	-13.9%	-47.1%	55.7%
Lancaster, PA	$178,064	1.1%	-3.2%	-7.2%	8.0%
Las Vegas, NV	$128,183	-0.4%	-12.4%	-58.1%	73.9%
Lincoln, NE	$134,914	-0.4%	-0.1%	-5.5%	12.7%
Little Rock, AR	$128,012	4.0%	4.4%	0.0%	9.6%
Los Angeles, CA	$425,425	2.2%	5.5%	-29.7%	16.9%
Madera, CA	$151,759	7.8%	-0.5%	-51.6%	38.4%
Madison, WI	$203,332	-0.7%	-3.6%	-14.8%	12.2%
Medford, OR	$179,433	-0.5%	-7.7%	-37.9%	37.4%
Melbourne, FL	$112,654	-4.5%	-9.6%	-51.6%	43.0%
Memphis, TN	$105,058	-0.7%	-4.2%	-14.3%	33.7%
Merced, CA	$110,719	1.2%	1.4%	-67.9%	40.0%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL	$146,458	-6.6%	-15.2%	-52.4%	44.0%
Milwaukee, WI	$178,517	1.9%	-6.0%	-13.0%	22.0%
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN	$185,783	-0.2%	-3.1%	-24.3%	36.6%
Mobile, AL	$105,480	-4.1%	-11.7%	-20.2%	13.3%
Modesto, CA	$146,391	2.2%	0.4%	-60.0%	57.5%
Morristown, TN	$98,700	0.8%	-6.6%	-20.7%	n/a
Mount Vernon, WA	$211,100	-2.7%	-13.4%	-23.4%	n/a
Napa, CA	$360,562	0.9%	-5.1%	-41.1%	37.2%
Naples, FL	$216,628	0.5%	-3.7%	-52.0%	38.5%
Nashville, TN	$150,378	-1.6%	-6.2%	-9.6%	18.1%
New Haven, CT	$231,106	2.1%	0.5%	-15.9%	10.5%
New London, CT	$225,420	2.2%	1.8%	-13.1%	10.6%
New York, NY	$363,239	-0.5%	-2.1%	-20.9%	13.5%
Ocala, FL	$101,072	-4.1%	-15.2%	-42.8%	37.7%
Oklahoma City, OK	$119,257	4.6%	5.0%	0.0%	6.1%
Olympia, WA	$232,744	0.2%	-4.2%	-10.8%	20.8%
Omaha, NE	$139,666	-4.8%	-7.0%	-8.2%	13.6%
Orlando, FL	$124,483	-1.3%	-13.8%	-51.7%	64.6%
Panama City, FL	$150,500	-0.3%	-4.9%	-42.5%	31.1%
Pensacola, FL	$123,252	-2.2%	-3.7%	-24.5%	32.1%
Philadelphia, PA	$208,639	-0.3%	0.0%	-11.0%	10.6%
Phoenix, AZ	$137,113	-3.6%	-11.8%	-51.1%	66.8%
Pittsburgh, PA	$107,164	1.1%	-2.8%	-5.1%	5.6%
Pittsfield, MA	$194,900	2.5%	1.7%	-11.2%	n/a
Port St. Lucie, FL	$111,812	-4.9%	-9.7%	-55.9%	55.0%
Portland, OR	$230,165	-0.9%	-7.1%	-22.3%	22.6%
Poughkeepsie, NY	$232,640	-2.2%	-8.6%	-26.1%	12.5%
Prescott, AZ	$189,774	-1.7%	-6.7%	-38.6%	28.2%
Providence, RI	$219,102	-1.2%	-4.3%	-28.0%	n/a
Pueblo, CO	$108,010	-1.1%	-1.7%	-13.0%	29.3%
Punta Gorda, FL	$121,989	-1.4%	1.4%	-48.2%	38.3%
Raleigh, NC	$182,578	0.0%	-6.8%	-11.8%	20.1%
Reading, PA	$163,441	0.9%	0.7%	-9.0%	9.4%
Reno, NV	$181,576	-1.1%	-9.0%	-49.4%	61.9%
Richmond, VA	$200,111	1.6%	-2.5%	-11.4%	17.4%
Riverside, CA	$194,562	1.5%	-0.8%	-51.7%	49.0%
Rochester, NY	$123,158	2.1%	2.8%	0.0%	9.3%
Rockford, IL	$109,214	1.2%	-2.1%	-11.6%	16.3%
Sacramento, CA	$234,655	1.0%	-2.0%	-43.2%	38.1%
Salem, OR	$178,122	0.8%	-4.5%	-16.2%	20.4%
Salinas, CA	$303,697	-0.1%	0.6%	-56.0%	33.6%
Salisbury, MD	$143,900	-3.2%	-9.8%	-21.1%	n/a
San Diego, CA	$378,798	2.9%	7.3%	-29.7%	20.4%
San Francisco, CA	$528,861	2.0%	5.9%	-25.1%	19.6%
San Jose, CA	$590,686	3.2%	5.6%	-20.7%	13.8%
San Luis Obispo, CA	$400,845	-0.8%	-4.0%	-33.3%	17.7%
Santa Barbara, CA	$449,368	1.0%	4.2%	-33.1%	22.9%
Santa Cruz, CA	$507,115	-0.3%	-4.1%	-30.6%	16.9%
Santa Rosa, CA	$374,313	3.6%	1.9%	-36.8%	15.8%
Sarasota, FL	$150,175	-0.6%	-4.4%	-51.2%	45.4%
Seattle, WA	$288,942	-1.3%	-5.9%	-24.3%	25.0%
Spartanburg, SC	$105,521	0.6%	-2.7%	-2.9%	12.7%
Spokane, WA	$158,933	1.4%	-2.6%	-15.5%	20.0%
Springfield, OH	$91,800	-1.59%	-3.52%	-10.6%	n/a
Springfield, MA	$190,256	0.7%	-2.3%	-12.0%	7.2%
St. Louis, MO	$141,073	1.6%	-3.3%	-10.5%	18.3%
Stamford, CT	$393,151	1.6%	-0.2%	-21.1%	9.6%
Stockton, CA	$163,039	2.6%	-0.3%	-60.3%	53.5%
Sumter, SC	$100,500	1.9%	-1.7%	-14.2%	n/a
Tallahassee, FL	$149,118	-3.4%	-7.2%	-18.3%	32.9%
Tampa, FL	$118,670	-0.1%	-8.2%	-45.1%	45.3%
Toledo, OH	$93,489	-0.3%	-4.7%	-23.2%	26.5%
Tucson, AZ	$160,341	-0.5%	-6.4%	-31.7%	41.4%
Tulsa, OK	$117,135	0.9%	2.6%	0.0%	6.1%
Utica, NY	$99,710	2.8%	1.7%	-5.0%	8.4%
Vallejo, CA	$217,225	3.9%	-2.6%	-54.1%	49.7%
Ventura, CA	$418,875	1.2%	3.7%	-33.3%	18.9%
Vero Beach, FL	$121,439	-1.1%	-8.5%	-48.6%	42.5%
Visalia, CA	$136,442	-1.7%	-6.7%	-44.1%	37.5%
Washington, DC	$330,573	1.0%	1.8%	-24.2%	25.0%
Winston-Salem, NC	$134,546	2.4%	1.6%	-2.9%	10.1%
Worcester, MA	$214,437	1.2%	-0.8%	-24.6%	20.2%
Yakima, WA	$137,586	-0.3%	-2.3%	-3.7%	7.2%
York, PA	$154,688	-0.3%	-2.6%	-13.5%	15.1%
Yuba City, CA	$153,200	1.4%	-5.2%	-51.3%	n/a
Yuma, AZ	$124,500	-1.0%	-10.3%	-33.2%	n/a
*Negative equity refers to the percent of single-family homeowners with mortgages

The full national report, in its interactive format, is available at www.zillow.com/local-info. Additionally, in most areas data is available at the state, metro, county, city, ZIP and neighborhood level.

About Zillow.com®

Zillow.com is an online real estate marketplace where homeowners, buyers, sellers, renters, real estate agents and mortgage professionals find and share vital information about homes and mortgages. Launched in early 2006 with Zestimate® home values and data on millions of U.S. homes, Zillow has since added homes for sale and homes for rent, a directory of real estate and lending professionals, Zillow Advice and Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. One of the most-visited U.S. real estate Web sites, with nearly 12 million unique visitors per month, Zillow's goal is to help people become smarter about homes and real estate in every stage of their lives -- home buying, selling, renting, remodeling and financing. The company is headquartered in Seattle and has raised $87 million in funding.

Zillow.com, Zillow and Zestimate are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc.

(1) The Zillow Home Value Index is the median Zestimate valuation for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. The Home Value Index at the national level is calculated using a weighted average of the median home value for each county and includes data from 440 metropolitan statistical areas. It is expressed in dollars and is for a particular geographic region.

(2) Negative equity is calculated of all single-family homes with mortgages. Zillow began calculating negative equity with this methodology in the first quarter of 2009.

(3) The data in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports is aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 124 Metropolitan Statistical Areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data is typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office.

(4) Foreclosures are defined as a Trustee's Deed Upon Sale or equivalent transaction.

(5) Foreclosure re-sales capture mostly sales of bank-owned (REO) homes. It measures sales of homes that were foreclosed on in the previous 12 months.

SOURCE Zillow.com