New AARP New York Poll: Mamdani Maintains Double-Digit Lead in NYC Mayoral Race, Undecided 50+ Voters Could Decide Outcome

Nearly 8 in 10 undecided voters are age 50-plus, putting older voters in a position to decide this election

NEW YORK, Oct. 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani continues to lead the race for New York City mayor, according to a new poll of likely general election voters conducted by AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics. Mamdani holds 43.2% support, followed by former Governor Andrew Cuomo (28.9%), Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa (19.4%), and 8.4% undecided or preferring another candidate. However, in a head-to-head matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani's lead falls within the margin of error, with the vast majority of undecided voters age 50 or older.

Undecided voters 50+ are the key to the stretch run of the race. Voters 50+ are undecided at much higher rates than younger voters, with 49% of voters 65+ still undecided. And among older voters, cost of living and cost of health care issues are top of mind.

"Once again, New York's older voters are poised to decide this election," said Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director. "Voters age 50 and older make up the vast majority of those still undecided, and as the most reliable voting bloc, they will determine who leads this city. Older New Yorkers are feeling the strain of rising costs and limited housing options and their priorities are clear: affordability, safety, and leadership that restores confidence in New York's direction. These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation."

The findings build on the August AARP/Gotham Poll and capture voter sentiment following Mayor Eric Adams's withdrawal from the race. Support that previously went to Adams — who polled near 9–10% — has shifted mainly to Cuomo, with smaller gains for Sliwa and Mamdani.

Undecided Older Voters Hold the Balance

While Mamdani maintains a steady lead, the poll reveals that nearly eight in ten undecided voters (78%) are age 50 or older, mirroring trends seen in the August poll. These older undecided voters are split along party lines, with many identifying as Independents or moderate Democrats, making them a potentially decisive swing bloc.

In a head-to-head scenario between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani leads 44.6% to 40.7%, with nearly 15% undecided — a group dominated by voters 50-plus. Cuomo's support among these older voters has increased nine points since August, signaling growing competitiveness in a possible one-on-one race. If Cuomo were to drop out instead, Sliwa's support would jump ten points from August, reaching 31.5%.

Cost of Living Still Dominates Voter Concerns

Across all age groups, affordability remains the dominant issue. Cost of living topped the list for nearly two-thirds of respondents and increased by two points since August. Public safety and housing affordability follow closely behind.

This poll finds a modest rise in optimism about New York City's future despite continued concern about its current trajectory. The share of voters saying the city is on the "wrong track" increased three points since August (55.7% from 52.7%), but more respondents now say they are "very optimistic" about improvement under new leadership.

"The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven't yet made up their minds," said Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling & Analytics. "If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate—by far the most reliable voting bloc—will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City."

This survey was conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics in collaboration with AARP New York between October 14–15, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,040 likely general election voters in New York City. Data were collected using a text-to-web methodology. Results were weighted to reflect the demographic composition of the likely November electorate by age, gender, race/ethnicity, borough, party registration, income, and education. The margin of sampling error is ±4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

Click here for the full methodology, report, crosstabs, and annotated questionnaire.

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About AARP
AARP is the nation's largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 125 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name. As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation's largest circulation publications, AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/ , www.aarp.org/español or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.

SOURCE AARP New York