IRVINE, Calif., April 27, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 4 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.51 million units in April 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.5 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. April 2016 sales could report the highest April volume ever, surpassing the previous record of 1.5 million units in April 2005.
"Following a disappointing March, we expect sales to get back on track in April with SAAR in the mid-17 million range," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Increased fleet sales and rising incentive spending among automakers remain the factors to watch, but retail demand appears to be holding steady, signaling the industry's strong run isn't over quite yet."
Key Highlights for Estimated April 2016 Sales Forecast:
In April 2016, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,510,000 units, up 4 percent from April 2015 and down 5 percent from March 2016.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for April 2016 is estimated to be 17.5 million, up from 16.7 million in April 2015 and up from 16.5 million in March 2016.
Retail sales are expected to account for 80.3 percent of volume in April 2016, down from 80.9 percent in April 2015.
Nissan, Honda Benefit from Car Lineups, Not SUV Models
Following a month above 10 percent market share, Nissan North America is poised to maintain momentum in April with projected double-digit sales volume gains. Helping enable this growth, and in contrast to most automakers, Nissan's car lineup has driven more sales growth than its SUVs this year, led by the redesigned Maxima and the refreshed Sentra. Both models should show solid improvement in April 2016.
"American Honda is another manufacturer with sales lifted by its car models more than utility vehicles," said Fleming. "In particular, the all-new Civic continues to do well and is positioned to break 30,000 sales in April, a figure made all the more impressive considering Civic has one of the lowest incentive levels in the compact car segment."
Sales Volume 1
Market Share 2
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)
Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)
American Honda (Acura, Honda)
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)
Subaru of America
1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements
2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
3 Includes brands not shown
Mid-Size Cars to Report Decent Showing in April
Although still expected to slightly lose overall market share, mid-size cars are likely to have a decent showing in April, boosted by the all-new Chevrolet Malibu, the refreshed Nissan Altima, and a push from the Hyundai Sonata. Sales in this segment have been weak this year, down 2 percent year-to-date, as consumers opt for similarly priced crossover SUVs.
With only 5 percent projected growth, sales in the compact SUV and crossover segment may appear to have cooled in April, but this is due to some vehicle categorization shifts in Kelley Blue Book's data, particularly the recognition of the subcompact SUV and crossover segment that emerged last year. This segment grew rapidly to nearly 2 percent of the market, and will continue to grow as consumers gain awareness of these new models.
Sales Volume 1
Full-Size Pickup Truck
1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
2 Includes segments not shown
There are 27 sales days in April 2016, compared to 26 sales days in April 2015. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.
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About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com) Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2015 Harris Poll EquiTrend® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for four consecutive years. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive™ brand.
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