New Mirror Image Gallup Poll Shows Romney Surges In Virginia Among Likely Voters

Oct 16, 2012, 15:37 ET from Kimball Political Consulting

BOSTON, Oct. 16, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new poll (using Gallups' party affiliation in Virginia) reveals that Romney now holds a commanding 11 point advantage over President Obama (54% to 43%) according to Kimball Political Consulting. The earlier Gallup poll revealed that Virginia's demographics are 35% Republican, 34% Democrat and 30% Independent.

The pollster, Spencer Kimball, said that "Governor Romney's lead has to do with the deficit being the most important issue to likely voters (32%) coupled with the fact that 81% of these voters will vote for Romney." Among Independents, Romney holds a 53% to 42% advantage.  Among women, Romney holds a 51% to 47% advantage.  Voters were split over federal funding of PBS with 42% supporting and 39% opposing.

Kimball thought in order for Obama to win the state he must switch the main issue of the race to either jobs, where voters are statistically split on who to vote for (52% for Romney to 45% for Obama), or to healthcare where Obama receives 68% of the vote.  Based on these numbers Kimball said, "due to Obama's high numbers on healthcare, I expect Virginia will see an increase in ads attacking Romney on his Medicare plan." Kimball also believes the Obama campaign will start to use healthcare as the cornerstone of their Virginia campaign.

In the U.S. Senate race, George Allen receives 50% of the vote and Tim Kaine has 43% (7% undecided). Presidential coattails looks to be a factor in the Senate race according to Kimball, as voters are not splitting their tickets, with Romney voters voting for Allen (90%) and Obama voters voting for Kaine (94%). Allen leads amongst Independents 48% to 43%.

The Statewide survey of 696 likely voters was conducted October 12 and 13, 2012, using automated telephone interviews. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. Methodology, Analysis, Frequencies and full cross-tabulation data are available on the link below.

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SOURCE Kimball Political Consulting