New Vehicle Sales Expected to Lift Slightly in the Third Quarter, Edmunds Forecasts
Despite a dip in September sales, analysts forecast a year-over-year increase in quarterly sales for the first time in 2019
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 25, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Thanks to two fewer selling days and an early Labor Day holiday, the car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast September will be a down month for the auto industry, forecasting that 1,267,607 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.1 million. This reflects a 23% decrease in sales from August 2019 and an 11.6% decrease from September 2018.
"September auto sales look a little bleak on paper, but it's just a matter of a tough year-over-year comparison," explained Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' senior manager of industry analysis. "This is one of those times when you have to look at the full quarter to get a more accurate perspective of what's really happening in the market."
Edmunds experts forecast that 4,317,448 new cars and trucks will be sold in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting a 3.1% decrease from the second quarter of 2019, but a 0.8% increase from the third quarter of 2018. This would mark the first quarter this year that auto sales will be up on a quarterly basis compared to 2018.
"All year long we've been talking about high prices and rising interest rates keeping shoppers on the sidelines, but in the third quarter those pressures eased up just enough to get consumers back in a buying mood," Acevedo said. "If this momentum continues, we expect a solid finish to the year."
SEPTEMBER SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales |
September |
September |
August |
Change from |
Change from |
GM* |
223,746 |
236,000 |
290,000 |
-5.2% |
-22.8% |
Toyota |
180,595 |
203,098 |
248,334 |
-11.1% |
-27.3% |
Fiat |
174,302 |
199,819 |
214,000 |
-12.8% |
-18.6% |
Ford* |
170,179 |
196,496 |
209,000 |
-13.4% |
-18.6% |
Honda |
120,274 |
132,668 |
173,993 |
-9.3% |
-30.9% |
Hyundai/Kia |
98,654 |
108,862 |
123,994 |
-9.4% |
-20.4% |
Nissan |
98,299 |
122,819 |
127,230 |
-20.0% |
-22.7% |
VW/Audi |
42,334 |
49,874 |
56,943 |
-15.1% |
-25.7% |
Tesla |
13,762 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Industry |
1,267,607 |
1,433,664 |
1,646,395 |
-11.6% |
-23.0% |
*GM sales totals for September 2018 are estimated, FCA, Ford, and GM sales totals for August 2019 are estimated |
**NOTE: September 2019 had 23 selling days, September 2018 had 25 and August 2019 had 23. |
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.7 million vehicles in September 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.8% of total sales. An estimated 3.3 million used vehicles will be sold in September 2019, for a SAAR of 39.7 million (compared to 3.4 million — or a SAAR of 39.8 million — in August).
SEPTEMBER MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market |
September |
September |
August |
Change from |
Change from |
GM |
17.7% |
16.5% |
17.6% |
1.2% |
0.1% |
Toyota |
14.2% |
14.2% |
15.1% |
0.1% |
-0.8% |
Fiat |
13.8% |
13.9% |
13.0% |
-0.2% |
0.8% |
Ford |
13.4% |
13.7% |
12.8% |
-0.3% |
0.7% |
Honda |
9.5% |
9.3% |
10.6% |
0.2% |
-1.1% |
Hyundai/Kia |
7.8% |
7.6% |
7.5% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Nissan |
7.8% |
8.6% |
7.7% |
-0.8% |
0.0% |
VW/Audi |
3.3% |
3.5% |
3.5% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
Tesla |
1.1% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Q3 SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales |
Q3 2019 |
Q3 2018 |
Q2 2019 |
Change from Q3 |
Change from Q2 |
GM |
748,746 |
694,638 |
746,659 |
7.8% |
0.3% |
Toyota |
638,133 |
634,923 |
607,927 |
0.5% |
5.0% |
Fiat |
558,302 |
564,507 |
597,685 |
-1.1% |
-6.6% |
Ford |
570,179 |
606,939 |
643,000 |
-6.1% |
-11.3% |
Honda |
435,563 |
419,173 |
407,208 |
3.9% |
7.0% |
Hyundai/Kia |
335,359 |
325,132 |
359,796 |
3.1% |
-6.8% |
Nissan |
324,409 |
343,987 |
351,185 |
-5.7% |
-7.6% |
VW/Audi |
149,835 |
152,777 |
152,061 |
-1.9% |
-1.5% |
Industry |
4,317,448 |
4,284,576 |
4,454,299 |
0.8% |
-3.1% |
Q3 MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market |
Q3 2019 |
Q3 2018 |
Q2 2019 |
Change from Q3 |
Change from Q2 |
GM |
17.3% |
16.2% |
16.8% |
1.1% |
0.6% |
Toyota |
14.8% |
14.8% |
13.6% |
0.0% |
1.1% |
Fiat |
12.9% |
13.2% |
13.4% |
-0.2% |
-0.5% |
Ford |
13.2% |
14.2% |
14.4% |
-1.0% |
-1.2% |
Honda |
10.1% |
9.8% |
9.1% |
0.3% |
0.9% |
Hyundai/Kia |
7.8% |
7.6% |
8.1% |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
Nissan |
7.5% |
8.0% |
7.9% |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
VW/Audi |
3.5% |
3.6% |
3.4% |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
CONTACT:
Talia James-Armand
Senior Manager, Public Relations
[email protected]
310-309-4900
http://edmunds.com/about/press
SOURCE Edmunds
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