This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the New Zealand telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends.
It also features the following:
Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
IoT Market Overview
Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and Infrastructure
Telco Infrastructure Review
Telco Transaction Database
New Zealand Telecommunications Market at a Glance
New Zealand has one of the most mature and competitive telecommunications markets in the world. New Zealand is a stable mobile market with 3 network operators, a nationwide full-fibre wholesale broadband network and the overall market underpinned by strong economic fundamentals.
This report forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2005, sliding down every year since then.
Mobile subscribers numbers and revenue are growing strongly and the back of population growth and market shift to postpaid.
The overall telecoms market is expected to grow through to 2025 after a marked slow down in 2017 and 2018 due to legacy voice revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.
The CapEx to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2018 but is expected to remain at the same level through to 2025. It is estimated that the ratio will settle back by 2023 peaking in 2020. Chorus is still investing heavily in fibre infrastructure until 2022 while Spark and Vodafone have more conservative investment profiles.
Mobile Subscribers and Revenue
Over the last five years, the market shifted to postpaid as subscribers move to Pay Monthly offerings (SIM-only plans) with increased data allowances. Overall, the number of prepaid subscribers decreased slightly. Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.
The report benchmarked mobile data pricing across 8 countries in the Asia Pacific region and found that the Philippines is lagging behind in terms of data download, but the country is expected to catch up as 4G coverage is accelerating and smartphone penetration is increasing especially in regional areas.
According to this benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. New Zealand has the highest pricing per GB and Kiwis downloaded the least amount of data over their mobile phones.
Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless
The Ultra-Fast Broadband initiative is a New Zealand Government program of building fibre-to-the-home networks covering 87% of the population by the end of 2022, FTTP will be deployed to 1.8 million households and businesses in 390 cities and towns. It is a public-private partnership of the government with four companies with a total government investment of NZ$1.7 billion.
The broadband market is now experiencing low growth mostly driven by new premises construction in greenfield developments or urban redevelopments. The UFB government project reached over 1.5m premises and connected 53% of them or 821,000 premises.
Households growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises, previously not able to connect now served by UFB2, will drive up the fixed-broadband subscribers.
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.
In 2019, Morrisson & Co (Infratil) and Brookfield, both infrastructure funds, bought Vodafone NZ for NZ$3.4 billion (EV/EBITDA of .c7). Globally, many infrastructure funds are investing in mobile towers, FTTH, data centres, submarine cables while that trend is likely to continue over time with more proactive transactions.
The next wave of transactions is likely to continue being about scale among small ISPs and largely about infrastructure for Spark, Vodafone and 2degrees.
The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.
Key Topics Covered
1 Key Statistics 1.1 New Zealand Population 1.2 KIWI Households 1.3 NEW Zealand's GDP
3 Telecommunications Operators Profile 3.1 Spark New Zealand Profile 3.1.1 Spark Revenue and EBITDA Mix 3.2 Vodafone New Zealand Profile 3.2.1 Vodafone New Zealand Revenue and EBITDA Mix 3.3 2Degrees 3.3.1 2degrees Revenue and EBITDA Mix 3.4 Chorus Profile 3.4.1 Chorus Revenue and EBITDA Mix 3.5 Other Players Profile 3.5.1 Vocus New Zealand 3.5.2 Trustpower
4 Mobile Market 4.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025 4.1.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019 4.1.2 Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019 4.1.3 New Zealand Smartphone Share, 2019 4.1.4 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2025 4.2 Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025 4.2.1 Historical Mobile Revenue, 2014-2018 4.2.1 Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2014-2019 4.2.2 Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025 4.2.3 Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019 4.3 Mobile Coverage 4.4 Spectrum Holdings 4.4.1 Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs 4.4.2 Upcoming 5G Auctions in 2022 4.4.3 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis 4.5 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends 4.6 Mobile Speed Tests 4.6.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests 4.7 Internet of Things (IoT)
6 Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments 6.1 Fixed Infrastructure 6.1.1 The Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) 6.1.2 Submarine Cables 6.2 Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape 6.2.1 Small Tightly Held Tower Market 6.3 Telco Infrastructure Comparative
7 Thematics / Opportunities 7.1 Going for Scale 7.2 Going for Scope 7.3 New Telco Operating Model 7.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples 7.4 5G versus Fixed 7.4.1 5G Overview 7.4.2 Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term