NEW YORK, Jan. 6, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Nuveen, the global investment manager of TIAA, unveils its annual investment insights and 2021 forecasts for markets and the economy from industry veteran Bob Doll on behalf of Nuveen's Equities Investment Council.
For over 30 years, Bob Doll has published a set of annual 10 predictions forecasting key themes and risks driving equity markets, monetary policy and the global economy. 2020 marked the first year in which a second "revised" set was developed in April to reflect the short and long-term impact of COVID-19.
"As we emerge out of the shortest but deepest economic recession in modern history sparked by the coronavirus pandemic, we enter 2021 with investor optimism running high," said Bob Doll, CFA, senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist at Nuveen. "The reopening of the economy combined with increasing consumer and business confidence should create a positive backdrop for equity markets in 2021, but the key question is how much of this good news has already been priced into the markets."
This year's 10 predictions reflect a somewhat divided outlook between global economy and Nuveen's market outlook, raising the question as to whether 2020 has already "borrowed" some of 2021's returns.
Ten Predictions for 2021 from Bob Doll on behalf of Nuveen's Equities Investment Council
U.S. real GDP increases at its fastest pace in twenty years.
Inflation approaches 2% as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 1.5%.
The U.S. dollar sinks to a five-year low.
Stocks reach a new high for the twelfth consecutive year, but fail to keep pace with strong earnings growth.
Stocks outperform cash, but cash outperforms Treasury bonds for the first time since 2013.
Value, small and non-U.S. stocks (especially EM) outperform growth, big and U.S. stocks.
Health care and financials outperform energy and utilities.
U.S. federal debt rises to more than 100% of GDP on its way to an all-time high.
The U.S./China cold war continues, but the conversation becomes quieter and more multilateral.
Despite polarization, President Biden, Sen. McConnell and moderate forces achieve some compromise legislation.
The Nuveen Equities Investment Council includes the firm's senior equity portfolio managers with 29 average years of investing experience. The group brings global expertise across different styles of equity investing and provides value-added insights to Nuveen's investment process by refining and delivering the firm's collective equity market outlook, including key risks and drivers, to clients.
Nuveen, the investment manager of TIAA, offers a comprehensive range of outcome-focused investment solutions designed to secure the long-term financial goals of institutional and individual investors. Nuveen has $1.1 trillion in assets under management as of 30 September 2020 and operations in 27 countries. Its investment specialists offer deep expertise across a comprehensive range of traditional and alternative investments through a wide array of vehicles and customized strategies. For more information, please visit www.nuveen.com.