• Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • Log In
  • Sign Up
  • Data Privacy
  • Send a Release
Cision PR Newswire: news distribution, targeting and monitoring home
  • News
  • Products
    • Overview
    • Distribution by PR Newswire
    • Cision Communications Cloud®
    • Cision IR
    • All Products
  • Contact
    • General Inquiries
    • Request a Demo
    • Editorial Bureaus
    • Partnerships
    • Media Inquiries
    • Worldwide Offices

 

When typing in this field, a list of search results will appear and be automatically updated as you type.

Searching for your content...

No results found. Please change your search terms and try again.
  • News in Focus
      • Browse News Releases
      • All News Releases
      • All Public Company
      • English-only


      • News Releases Overview
      • Multimedia Gallery
      • All Multimedia
      • All Photos
      • All Videos


      • Multimedia Gallery Overview
      • Trending Topics
      • All Trending Topics


  • Business & Money
      • Auto & Transportation
      • All Automotive & Transportation
      • Aerospace, Defense
      • Air Freight
      • Airlines & Aviation
      • Automotive
      • Maritime & Shipbuilding
      • Railroads and Intermodal Transportation
      • Supply Chain/Logistics
      • Transportation, Trucking & Railroad
      • Travel
      • Trucking and Road Transportation


      • Auto & Transportation Overview
      • Business Technology
      • All Business Technology
      • Blockchain
      • Broadcast Tech
      • Computer & Electronics
      • Computer Hardware
      • Computer Software
      • Data Analytics
      • Electronic Commerce
      • Electronic Components
      • Electronic Design Automation
      • Financial Technology
      • High Tech Security
      • Internet Technology
      • Nanotechnology
      • Networks
      • Peripherals
      • Semiconductors


      • Business Technology Overview
      • Entertain­ment & Media
      • All Entertain­ment & Media
      • Advertising
      • Art
      • Books
      • Entertainment
      • Film and Motion Picture
      • Magazines
      • Music
      • Publishing & Information Services
      • Radio & Podcast
      • Television


      • Entertain­ment & Media Overview
      • Financial Services & Investing
      • All Financial Services & Investing
      • Accounting News & Issues
      • Acquisitions, Mergers and Takeovers
      • Banking & Financial Services
      • Bankruptcy
      • Bond & Stock Ratings
      • Conference Call Announcements
      • Contracts
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Dividends
      • Earnings
      • Earnings Forecasts & Projections
      • Financing Agreements
      • Insurance
      • Investments Opinions
      • Joint Ventures
      • Mutual Funds
      • Private Placement
      • Real Estate
      • Restructuring & Recapitalization
      • Sales Reports
      • Shareholder Activism
      • Stock Offering
      • Stock Split
      • Venture Capital


      • Financial Services & Investing Overview
      • General Business
      • All General Business
      • Awards
      • Commercial Real Estate
      • Corporate Expansion
      • Earnings
      • Human Resource & Workforce Management
      • Licensing
      • New Products & Services
      • Obituaries
      • Outsourcing Businesses
      • Overseas Real Estate (non-US)
      • Personnel Announcements
      • Real Estate Transactions
      • Residential Real Estate
      • Small Business Services
      • Socially Responsible Investing
      • Surveys, Polls and Research
      • Trade Show News


      • General Business Overview
  • Science & Tech
      • Consumer Technology
      • All Consumer Technology
      • Artificial Intelligence
      • Blockchain
      • Cloud Computing/Internet of Things
      • Computer Electronics
      • Computer Hardware
      • Computer Software
      • Consumer Electronics
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Data Analytics
      • Electronic Commerce
      • Electronic Gaming
      • Financial Technology
      • Mobile Entertainment
      • Multimedia & Internet
      • Peripherals
      • Social Media
      • STEM (Science, Tech, Engineering, Math)
      • Supply Chain/Logistics
      • Wireless Communications


      • Consumer Technology Overview
      • Energy & Natural Resources
      • All Energy
      • Alternative Energies
      • Chemical
      • Electrical Utilities
      • Gas
      • General Manufacturing
      • Mining
      • Mining & Metals
      • Oil & Energy
      • Oil and Gas Discoveries
      • Utilities
      • Water Utilities


      • Energy & Natural Resources Overview
      • Environ­ment
      • All Environ­ment
      • Conservation & Recycling
      • Environmental Issues
      • Environmental Policy
      • Environmental Products & Services
      • Green Technology
      • Natural Disasters


      • Environ­ment Overview
      • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing
      • All Heavy Industry & Manufacturing
      • Aerospace & Defense
      • Agriculture
      • Chemical
      • Construction & Building
      • General Manufacturing
      • HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air-Conditioning)
      • Machinery
      • Machine Tools, Metalworking and Metallurgy
      • Mining
      • Mining & Metals
      • Paper, Forest Products & Containers
      • Precious Metals
      • Textiles
      • Tobacco


      • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing Overview
      • Telecomm­unications
      • All Telecomm­unications
      • Carriers and Services
      • Mobile Entertainment
      • Networks
      • Peripherals
      • Telecommunications Equipment
      • Telecommunications Industry
      • VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
      • Wireless Communications


      • Telecomm­unications Overview
  • Lifestyle & Health
      • Consumer Products & Retail
      • All Consumer Products & Retail
      • Animals & Pets
      • Beers, Wines and Spirits
      • Beverages
      • Bridal Services
      • Cannabis
      • Cosmetics and Personal Care
      • Fashion
      • Food & Beverages
      • Furniture and Furnishings
      • Home Improvement
      • Household, Consumer & Cosmetics
      • Household Products
      • Jewelry
      • Non-Alcoholic Beverages
      • Office Products
      • Organic Food
      • Product Recalls
      • Restaurants
      • Retail
      • Supermarkets
      • Toys


      • Consumer Products & Retail Overview
      • Entertain­ment & Media
      • All Entertain­ment & Media
      • Advertising
      • Art
      • Books
      • Entertainment
      • Film and Motion Picture
      • Magazines
      • Music
      • Publishing & Information Services
      • Radio & Podcast
      • Television


      • Entertain­ment & Media Overview
      • Health
      • All Health
      • Biometrics
      • Biotechnology
      • Clinical Trials & Medical Discoveries
      • Dentistry
      • FDA Approval
      • Fitness/Wellness
      • Health Care & Hospitals
      • Health Insurance
      • Infection Control
      • International Medical Approval
      • Medical Equipment
      • Medical Pharmaceuticals
      • Mental Health
      • Pharmaceuticals
      • Supplementary Medicine


      • Health Overview
      • Sports
      • All Sports
      • General Sports
      • Outdoors, Camping & Hiking
      • Sporting Events
      • Sports Equipment & Accessories


      • Sports Overview
      • Travel
      • All Travel
      • Amusement Parks and Tourist Attractions
      • Gambling & Casinos
      • Hotels and Resorts
      • Leisure & Tourism
      • Outdoors, Camping & Hiking
      • Passenger Aviation
      • Travel Industry


      • Travel Overview
  • Policy & Public Interest
      • Policy & Public Interest
      • All Policy & Public Interest
      • Advocacy Group Opinion
      • Animal Welfare
      • Congressional & Presidential Campaigns
      • Corporate Social Responsibility
      • Domestic Policy
      • Economic News, Trends, Analysis
      • Education
      • Environmental
      • European Government
      • FDA Approval
      • Federal and State Legislation
      • Federal Executive Branch & Agency
      • Foreign Policy & International Affairs
      • Homeland Security
      • Labor & Union
      • Legal Issues
      • Natural Disasters
      • Not For Profit
      • Patent Law
      • Public Safety
      • Trade Policy
      • U.S. State Policy


      • Policy & Public Interest Overview
  • People & Culture
      • People & Culture
      • All People & Culture
      • Aboriginal, First Nations & Native American
      • African American
      • Asian American
      • Children
      • Diversity, Equity & Inclusion
      • Hispanic
      • Lesbian, Gay & Bisexual
      • Men's Interest
      • People with Disabilities
      • Religion
      • Senior Citizens
      • Veterans
      • Women


      • People & Culture Overview
      • In-Language News

      • español
      • português
      • Česko
      • Danmark
      • Deutschland
      • España
      • France
      • Italia
      • Nederland
      • Norge
      • Polska
      • Portugal
      • Россия
      • Slovensko
      • Suomi
      • Sverige
  • Overview
  • Distribution by PR Newswire
  • Cision Communications Cloud®
  • Cision IR
  • All Products
  • General Inquiries
  • Request a Demo
  • Editorial Bureaus
  • Partnerships
  • Media Inquiries
  • Worldwide Offices
  • PR Newswire: news distribution, targeting and monitoring
  • Send a Release
    • ALL CONTACT INFO

      Contact Us

      888-776-0942
      from 8 AM - 10 PM ET

  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR
  • News in Focus
    • Browse All News
    • Multimedia Gallery
    • Trending Topics
    • Send a Release
    • Sign Up
    • Log In
    • Resources
    • Blog
    • Journalists
    • RSS
    • GDPR
  • Business & Money
    • Auto & Transportation
    • Business Technology
    • Entertain­ment & Media
    • Financial Services & Investing
    • General Business
    • Send a Release
    • Sign Up
    • Log In
    • Resources
    • Blog
    • Journalists
    • RSS
    • GDPR
  • Science & Tech
    • Consumer Technology
    • Energy & Natural Resources
    • Environ­ment
    • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing
    • Telecomm­unications
    • Send a Release
    • Sign Up
    • Log In
    • Resources
    • Blog
    • Journalists
    • RSS
    • GDPR
  • Lifestyle & Health
    • Consumer Products & Retail
    • Entertain­ment & Media
    • Health
    • Sports
    • Travel
    • Send a Release
    • Sign Up
    • Log In
    • Resources
    • Blog
    • Journalists
    • RSS
    • GDPR
  • Policy & Public Interest
    • Send a Release
    • Sign Up
    • Log In
    • Resources
    • Blog
    • Journalists
    • RSS
    • GDPR
  • People & Culture
    • People & Culture
    • Send a Release
    • Sign Up
    • Log In
    • Resources
    • Blog
    • Journalists
    • RSS
    • GDPR
  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR
  • Overview
  • Distribution by PR Newswire
  • Cision Communications Cloud®
  • Cision IR
  • All Products
  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR
  • General Inquiries
  • Request a Demo
  • Editorial Bureaus
  • Partnerships
  • Media Inquiries
  • Worldwide Offices
  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR

Odds of Living Very Long Life Lower Than Formerly Predicted


News provided by

NORC at the University of Chicago

Feb 06, 2012, 02:09 ET

Share this article

Share this article


CHICAGO, Feb. 6, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The chances to reach extreme old age are much lower than previously thought, new research shows.

Research just published by a team of demographers at the social science research organization NORC at the University of Chicago contradicts a long-held belief that the mortality rate of Americans flattens out above age 80.

It also explains why there are only half as many people in the U.S. age 100 and above than the Census Bureau predicted there would be as recently as six years ago.

The research is based on a new way of accurately measuring mortality of Americans who are 80 years of age and older, an issue that has proven remarkably elusive in the past. The work will be significant in arriving at more accurate cost projections for programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which are based in part on mortality rates.

The research, done by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova, and published in the current edition of the North American Actuarial Journal, is based on highly accurate information about the date of birth and the date of death of more than nine million Americans born between 1875 and 1895. The data is publicly available in the Social Security Administration Death Master File. "It is a remarkable resource that allowed us to build what is called an extinct birth cohort that corrects or explains a number of misunderstandings about the mortality rate of our oldest citizens," said Leonid Gavrilov.

A stark example of the problem of estimating the number of people over 100 came recently when the U.S. Census Bureau revised sharply downward the number of living centenarians. Six years ago, the bureau predicted that by 2010 there would be 114,000 people age 100 or older. The actual number turned out to be 53,364. The projection was wrong by a factor of two.

The newly published paper, titled "Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File," explains the discrepancy and is likely to make a difference in the way mortality projections for the very old are done in the future.

The key finding is straightforward—the rate of mortality growth with age of the oldest Americans is the same as that for those who are younger. The research reveals that mortality deceleration, the long-held belief that the mortality rate flattens out above age 80, does not take place.

Anne Zissu, chair of the Department of Business NYC College of Technology/CUNY, said the research provides "an essential tool" for developing models on seniors' financial assets. 

Zissu said the research "will alter our financial approach to this valuation of mortality/longevity risk. Demographers and financiers need to work on this issue together, and their models must adapt to each other."

The mortality rate for people between the ages of 30 and 80 follows what is called the Gompertz Law, named for its founder, Benjamin Gompertz, who observed in 1825 that a person's risk of death in a given year doubles every eight years of age. It is a phenomenon that holds up across nations and over time and is an important part of the foundation of actuarial science.

For approximately 70 years, demographers have believed that above age 80 the Gompertz Law did not hold and that mortality rates flattened out. The work done by the Gavrilovs, a husband-and-wife team, reveals that the Gompertz Law holds at least through age 106, and probably higher, but the researchers say mortality data for those older than 106 is unreliable.

The Gavrilovs say the extinct birth cohort of people born between 1875 and 1895, which they built using the Social Security Administration Death Master File (SSA DMF), reveals beyond question that the mortality rate of people in that cohort aligns with the Gompertz Law.

"It amazes me that the Gompertz model fits so well nearly 200 years after he proposed it.  I like the approach of using extinct cohorts methods on SSA DMF data by month and the use of male-female ratios to test the quality of the data at advanced ages," said Tom Edwalds, Assistant Vice President Mortality Research, for the Munich American Reassurance Company.

Prior estimates of the number of centenarians in the United States were made in less direct ways that were subject to error. They depended, for example, on people self-reporting their age in the U.S. Census, which is less reliable than having actual birth and death data.

Gavrilov and Gavrilova work at the Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging, one of the Academic Research Centers of NORC. The study is supported by the National Institute on Aging.

The Chicago Actuarial Association (CAA) has invited the authors to present their new findings at the CAA annual meeting in Chicago on March 13.

About NORC
NORC at the University of Chicago is an independent research organization headquartered in downtown Chicago with additional offices on the University of Chicago's campus and in the D.C. Metro area. NORC also supports a nationwide field staff as well as international research operations. With clients throughout the world, NORC collaborates with government agencies, foundations, educational institutions, nonprofit organizations, and businesses to provide data and analysis that support informed decision making in key areas including health, education, economics, crime, justice, energy, security, and the environment. NORC's 70 years of leadership and experience in data collection, analysis, and dissemination—coupled with deep subject matter expertise—provides the foundation for effective solutions.

About the Study Authors
Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., is Principal Investigator of research project "Biodemography of Exceptional Longevity in the United States," awarded by 5-year grant from the National Institutes of Health, NIH.  For more information, visit: http://www.norc.org/Experts/Pages/leonid-a-gavrilov.aspx.

Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., is a Fellow of the Gerontological Society of America, and the author of over a hundred scientific publications. For more information, visit: http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilova.htm.

SOURCE NORC at the University of Chicago

Modal title

    Contact Cision

  • Cision Distribution 888-776-0942
    from 8 AM - 9 PM ET

  • Chat with an Expert
    • General Inquiries
    • Request a Demo
    • Editorial Bureaus
    • Partnerships
    • Media Inquiries
    • Worldwide Offices

    Products

  • Cision Communication Cloud®
  • For Marketers
  • For Public Relations
  • For IR & Compliance
  • For Agency
  • For Small Business
  • All Products

    About

  • About PR Newswire
  • About Cision
  • Become a Publishing Partner
  • Become a Channel Partner
  • Careers
  • COVID-19 Resources
  • Accessibility Statement

    • Asia
    • Brazil
    • Canada
    • Czech
    • Denmark
    • Finland
    • France
    • Germany
    • India
    • Israel
    • Italy
    • Mexico
    • Middle East
    • Netherlands
    • Norway
    • Poland
    • Portugal
    • Russia
    • Slovakia
    • Spain
    • Sweden
    • United Kingdom

    My Services

  • All New Releases
  • Online Member Center
  • ProfNet

Contact Cision


Products


About


My Services
  • All News Releases
  • Online Member Center
  • ProfNet℠
Cision Distribution Helpline
888-776-0942
  • Terms of Use
  • Privacy Policy
  • Information Security Policy
  • Site Map
  • RSS
  • Cookie Settings
Copyright © 2021 Cision US Inc.