Platts: China's August Oil Demand Dips to Lowest Daily Average in 10 Months

Sep 21, 2011, 12:14 ET from Platts

SINGAPORE, Sept. 21, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- China's apparent* oil demand was 38.02 million metric tons (mt) in August, or an average of 8.98 million barrels per day (b/d), the lowest level since October 2010, according to a Platts analysis based on statistics recently released by the Chinese government. But on a year-over-year basis, the August rate was up seven percent.

This marks the first time in 10 months that apparent oil demand has dipped below nine million b/d and reflects a softening in refined product consumption, compounded by a shrinking of crude oil use due to refinery repairs and incidents. The last time China's apparent oil demand was less than nine million b/d was in October 2010, when it reached 8.95 million b/d.

"The biggest contributor to the pullback in apparent oil demand in August was low crude throughput at refineries during the month," said Calvin Lee, Platts senior writer, China. "In addition, the growth momentum in domestic oil product consumption appears to be slowing, adding further drag to overall demand."

In August, though China's refinery crude throughput climbed 5.9% year on year to 36.78 million mt, or an average of 8.7 million b/d, the daily refinery run rate was just marginally more than the year's lowest crude processing rate of 8.69 million b/d in June.

Crude runs were curtailed last month, with several refineries cutting back production due to scheduled maintenance and an unplanned shutdown at PetroChina's Dalian refinery in northeast China following two separate incidents. The Dalian refinery produces 20.5 million metric tons per year, or 411,685 barrels per day.

During August, the country imported 3.41 million mt of refined products, up 33.2% from this same time a year ago. Oil product exports showed a 4.8% climb year on year to 2.17 million metric tons.

Meanwhile, net product imports for August, at 1.24 million mt or 290,000 b/d, were both 53% greater than those of August 2010 and 55% more than the net product imports in July of 800,000 mt or 180,000 b/d.

Still, the growth momentum in local oil product consumption appeared to be slowing, with usage of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel slipping in August to 19.43 million mt from 20.99 million mt in July, according to recent data published by the country's economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

The NDRC data showed that gasoline consumption during August grew 4.6% year over year, while diesel demand increased 1.2% from the prior year. The agency didn't provide actual consumption figures.

In comparison, diesel consumption expanded by 5.9% year on year in the first seven months of 2011 to 87.81 million metric tons. Gasoline demand increased 8.1% to 41.54 million mt during the January-July period.

"Some analysts view the set of data in August as clear signals of a slowdown," said Lee. "Several analysts have even predicted that China's oil demand will decelerate further in the third and fourth quarters due to a combination of weak economic outlook and a high base of comparison for the second half of 2010."

MONTHLY TRADE DATA IN MILLION METRIC TONS:



Aug'11

Aug'10

%Chg

Jul'11

Jun'11

May'11

Apr'11

Net crude imports

20.92

20.65

+1.31

19.23

19.43

21.50

21.25

Crude production

17.11

17.43

-1.84

17.3

17.15

17.43

16.96

Apparent demand

38.02

35.54

+6.98

38.29

36.92

39.40

38.36




*Platts calculates China's apparent or implied oil demand on the basis of crude throughput volumes at the domestic refineries and net oil product imports, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs.

The government releases data on imports, exports, domestic crude production and refinery throughput data, but does not give official data on the country's actual oil consumption figure and oil stockpiles. Official statistics on oil storage are released intermittently.

Platts releases its monthly calculation of China's apparent demand between the 18th and 26th of every month via press release and via its website. Any use of this information must be appropriately attributed to Platts.

For more information on crude oil, visit the Platts website at www.platts.com. For Chinese-language information on oil and the energy and metals markets, visit http://www.platts.cn/

About Platts: Founded in 1909, Platts is a leading global provider of energy, petrochemicals and metals information and a premier source of benchmark prices for the physical and futures markets.  Platts' news, pricing, analytics, commentary and conferences help customers make better-informed trading and business decisions and help the markets operate with greater transparency and efficiency.  Customers in more than 150 countries benefit from Platts' coverage of the carbon emissions, coal, electricity, oil, natural gas, metals, nuclear power, petrochemical, and shipping markets.  A division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), Platts is headquartered in New York with more than 900 employees in more than 15 offices worldwide. Additional information is available at http://www.platts.com.

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