Populism Is Here to Stay, But Elections May Alleviate Political Frustration, Ipsos Analysis Shows

Though, polling shows that there are limits to what elections can do when trust with the public is broken

WASHINGTON, Jan. 30, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The latest analysis of Ipsos' Broken System Index uncovers how elections may help take the edge off some of the more hard-lined populist attitudes around the world. The Broken System Index, run by Ipsos for six years across more than 25 countries worldwide, explores how fair people feel their country's social, political, and economic systems are. The latest version of this survey, released at the end of 2022, shows a promising dip in anti-system belief—even as majorities are still skeptical of the rich and powerful.

The new analysis also finds that corruption and other forms of social disorganization can fuel populist ideals and political violence, like that seen recently in Brazil.

On average, across 28 countries represented in the study, 64% feel the economy of their country is rigged to the advantage of the rich and powerful and 63% say that traditional parties and politicians don't care about people like them.

"For the short-to-mid-term future, anti-establishment politics and candidates will be with us," said Clifford Young, President, Ipsos, U.S. Public Affairs. "To date, this crop of anti-establishment politicians and parties around the world has reshaped countries, geopolitics, and the economy in their image. We can expect more to come."

While elections may take the edge off some of the more hard-lined anti-system beliefs, it doesn't make populist sentiment disappear. Concerns about election legitimacy and trust in the election process may still be compromised if important actors, like government officials and politicians, act on the public's underlying mistrust in the system, according to Ipsos polling and analysis. Recent attacks on government buildings in Brazil and the U.S. by people who don't believe their candidate lost legitimately demonstrate the limits to what elections can do in places where trust with the public is broken.

Here are some important takeaways from the Ipsos team and authors of the new analysis — which include Young; Chris Jackson, Senior Vice President; Sarah Feldman, Senior Data Journalist; and Bernard Mendez, Data Journalist — on the recent Broken System Index and its connection to the populist movement:

The "system is broken" belief is not a fringe idea

Underpinning the belief that the "system is broken" is a strong feeling around the world that the government, politics, and the economy are not fair. In countries like Romania, Turkey, and Thailand, people are shown to be more likely to feel their system is broken. On the other hand, people in countries such as Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands are the least likely to feel that their system is broken. The United States ranks just above the world average, around the middle of the pack among the 28 countries surveyed.

Corruption fuels "system is broken" beliefs

A general lack of trust in public institutions precedes the belief that a country's system is broken. But what leads to this lack of trust? Countries where the public feels that their leaders are corrupt also tend to register high on the System Is Broken Index, giving rise to support for populist leaders bent on "taking back the country" from the rich and powerful who also may be willing to bend the rules to accomplish what they want.

"System is broken" attitudes have softened slightly since 2016

Since Ipsos began tracking this sentiment in 2016, the world experienced a pandemic, war in Europe, record inflation, and general political turmoil. But despite all this, the System Is Broken Index has actually softened over the past six years. Latin America has seen the steepest decline in this sentiment, while, after a short increase in broken system sentiment, the Asian-Pacific area is back to levels of System Is Broken sentiment it was experiencing in 2016. 

Elections are a pressure valve for populist attitudes

Ipsos analysis indicates elections may be one avenue for alleviating the belief that the "system is broken." Since 2016, in countries where a national election occurred, the Broken System Index on average dropped slightly, while the index rose in countries that didn't have a national election. This doesn't mean elections are the absolute cure for this type of disillusionment. Despite these modest drops, most people around the world still feel that their local institutions are not working.

Elite behavior influences trust in elections

The actions of elite players, like politicians and government officials, impact whether the public trusts elections. Ipsos tracking of the two most recent elections in the U.S. offer examples of how the actions and words of politicians can influence the public's trust in elections.

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SOURCE Ipsos Public Affairs