President Obama's Ratings on the Rise Both Before and Since the State of the Union Address

NEW YORK, Jan. 27, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Around this time last week, an apparent ratings bump for President Obama was making all sorts of news. CBS News, the Washington Post, The Fiscal Times and a variety of other outlets all reported upswings for the President going into the State of the Union address, and results from two new Harris Poll surveys – one taken in the days leading up to the SOTU, another conducted in the days which followed – indicate that positive attitudes have continued to improve since the speech, not just for the President but for the direction of the country itself.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll® of 2,232 U.S. adults surveyed online between January 14 and 20, 2015 (prior to the State of the Union) and 2,057 adults surveyed online between January 21 and 23, 2015 (the three days following the address).  Full results, including data tables, are available here.

In the days leading up to the address, positive ratings for the overall job President Barack Obama was doing were already on the rise, standing at 39% (up six points over the previous month). Coming out of the address, the President's positive ratings stood at 42% – the highest level the overall approval rating has reached since December 2012, just after his re-election.

• While one might assume that this increase comes solely from Democrats, post-SOTU ratings showed a bump from both sides of the aisle: 7% of Republicans gave the President positive ratings before the address, while and admittedly-still-low 10% gave him positive ratings after; Democrats' positive ratings, meanwhile, grew from 69% to 74%, respectively. Independents' ratings were more stable, with 33% giving positive ratings before the address, 34% after.
• Just over half of those who watched the address gave the President positive ratings (53%), compared to just over a third of those who didn't watch (35%).

Positive ratings for President Obama's handling of the economy follow a similar path; 39% of Americans gave him positive ratings on this aspect of his job performance before the address – a 5-point improvement over the previous month – while positive ratings grew a further 3 points to 42% post-address. It's been a long time since the President has enjoyed such positive response to his handling of the economy; the last time this rating was in the 40's was in 2009.

• Findings again subvert the assumption some might have that this bump is coming only from the President's own party. In fact, Democrats' response on this question changed very little, from 70% positive ratings before the address to 71% after. The source of the improvement came more squarely, in this case, from Republicans (from 9% positive ratings before the address to 12% after) and Independents (from 32% to 35%, respectively).

Direction of the country

It's not just the President who saw attitudinal upswings both before and after the address; though the majority of Americans (62%) indicated before the address that things in the country have gotten off on the wrong track, 38% indicated that things are going in the right direction – the highest level seen for this attitude in over a year and a half. The positive sentiment grew further still after the SOTU, with 44% seeing things in the country as going in the right direction.

• Americans of all political leanings showed pre-to-post SOTU improvement in this positive attitude, be they Republicans (from 16% before the address to 19% after), Democrats (from 61% to 68%, respectively) or Independents (from 32% to 39%, respectively).
• The majority of SOTU viewers (57%) indicated believing that things in the country are going in the right direction, while just over a third of those who didn't watch (35%) indicated the same.

Even Congress gets (marginally) more love

Positive ratings for the overall job Congress is doing was also on the rise prior to the SOTU, with the 9% giving them positive ratings representing a 2-point improvement over the previous month. Positive ratings grew further – albeit marginally – after the address, to an admittedly-still-low 10%.

• Looking at political affiliations, positive ratings among Republicans grew by three points (from 7% before the address to 10% after), while Independents' positive ratings grew marginally (from 7% to 8%) and Democrats' positive ratings showed an equally marginal drop (from 14% to 13%).

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Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online, in English, within the United States between January 14 and 20, 2015 among 2,232 adults (aged 18 and over) and between January 21 and 23, 2015 among 2,057 adults. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Poll surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in our panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of The Harris Poll.

The Harris Poll^® #8, January 27, 2015
By Larry Shannon-Missal, Managing Editor, The Harris Poll

About The Harris Poll®
Begun in 1963, The Harris Poll is one of the longest running surveys measuring public opinion in the U.S. and is highly regarded throughout the world. The nationally representative polls, conducted primarily online, measure the knowledge, opinions, behaviors and motivations of the general public. New and trended polls on a wide variety of subjects including politics, the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, science and technology, sports and entertainment, and lifestyles are published weekly. For more information, or to see other recent polls, visit the Harris Poll News Room.

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SOURCE The Harris Poll

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