PVH, Kroger, Hovnanian Enterprises, Men's Wearhouse and Lululemon Athleticaare part of Zacks Earnings Preview:

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Sep 09, 2013, 09:30 ET

CHICAGO, Sept. 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week's list includes PVH Corp (NYSE:PVH-Free Report), Kroger (NYSE:KR-Free Report), Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV-Free Report), Men's Wearhouse (NYSE:MW-Free Report) and Lululemon Athletica (Nasdaq:LULU-Free Report).

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Closing the Books on Q2 Earnings

We are in-between earnings seasons at present, with the Q2 earnings close to the finish line and the Q3 reporting cycle still a few weeks away. Investors' attention lately has squarely been on economic data, with a focus on what each report means for the likelihood of a Fed Taper at this month's FOMC meeting.

The market's positive response to the tepid August jobs report likely indicates that many in the market still believe that Taper is far from guaranteed. I don't subscribe to that view as I see the totality of recent economic data, including the jobs report, as good enough to allow the Fed to start getting out of the QE business in the limited time available under Bernanke. With the next FOMC meeting just a week away, we will find out soon enough.

The earnings season may no longer be front and center, but it isn't (technically) over yet either, with 30 companies coming out with results this week, including 2 S&P 500 members. For all practical purposes, however, the Q2 earnings season is already over, with results from 497 S&P 500 companies already out (as of Friday, September 6th).

The remaining three reports are in the Retail and Consumer Discretionary sectors and this week's reports from PVH Corp (NYSE:PVH-Free Report) and Kroger (NYSE:KR-Free Report) take us very close to the finish line. Other notable reports this week include Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV-Free Report), Men's Wearhouse (NYSE:MW-Free Report) and Lululemon Athletica (Nasdaq:LULU-Free Report).

Most of the recent results have been from the Retail sector and they have broadly been on the weak side. The soft tone set by results from companies earlier in the sector's reporting cycle largely remained in place, with most of the apparel and other soft-line retailers failing to impress. The Q2 earnings and revenue growth numbers for the sector aren't bad; they are in fact better than what the sector produced in Q1 and the last few quarters.

But many more retailers came out short of expectations, with the earnings and revenue beat ratios for Q2 materially weaker than Q1 and the four-quarter average. The overall tone of guidance was on the weak side as well, prompting analysts to cut their estimates for the sector. Total earnings for the sector are expected to be up +3.9% in Q3 at present, down from +6.5% last week and +17.3% in mid-July.

The downward adjustment to Q3 expectations is fairly pronounced in Retail, but the issue is hardly confined this sector alone, as estimates have come down for all sectors. Total earnings in Q3 for the S&P 500 as a while are currently expected to up +1.4% from the same period last year, down from +1.9% last week and +5.2% in early July. Basic Materials, Industrials, and Technology are the other major sectors experiencing material negative estimate revisions.

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Since 1988, the Zacks Rank has proven that "Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices." Since inception in 1988, #1 Rank stocks have generated an average annual return of +28%. During the 2000-2002 bear market, Zacks #1 Rank stocks gained +43.8%, while the S&P 500 tumbled -37.6%. Also note that the Zacks Rank system has just as many Strong Sell recommendations (Rank #5) as Strong Buy recommendations (Rank #1). Since 1988, Zacks Rank #5 stocks have significantly underperformed the S&P 500 (+3% versus +10%). Thus, the Zacks Rank system allows investors to truly manage portfolio trading effectively.

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