Rabobank 2025 BBQ Index: Will a Trade War Burn the Summer BBQ

Grilling season is here, and Rabobank analysts dig into pricing of beloved BBQ essentials

NEW YORK, May 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Rabobank, a premier global food and agribusiness bank founded 125 years ago and a leading financier of the energy transition, today released the annual BBQ Index ahead of grilling season. Rabobank's analyst findings outline that the cherished summer ritual might be a welcome respite from tariffs and trade wars—prices are up, but mostly domestic supply chains mean mostly domestic reasons for those increases.

Rationale and Methodology 
The Rabobank BBQ Index assumes an average American BBQ situation—a mix of family and friends—ahead of summer grilling season. That includes 10 adults with each consuming the same amount of food and beverages. We assume each person will consume one cheeseburger with lettuce and tomato, one chicken sandwich with lettuce, tomato and a slice of cheese, two handfuls of chips, two beers, a soda and a few scoops of ice cream. As a means of comparison, the BBQ Index parallels the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a data source. We selected the monthly data series "average price index, U.S. city average."

"On the whole, Americans still spend less of our wallet on food than our counterparts in most other nations, but that gap is closing across the board," said Tom Bailey, Senior Consumer Foods Analyst, Rabobank.

For 2025 the BBQ Index highlights a 10-person BBQ is more expensive this year than last, 4.21 percent more expensive to be exact. 

Prices have risen for many ingredients found in a traditional summer BBQ. However, despite the increase, the essential items for summertime grilling have not been hit as hard by inflation as some other consumer goods. For instance, eggs, although a small component of the overall food basket used to determine the Consumer Price Index, have only recently begun to decrease in price after experiencing significant year-over-year price spikes. A strong domestic supply chain for many of the items on the table means that the price increases are due to other factors besides trade uncertainty. 

Beef is Beefing Up
Senior Beef Analyst for Rabobank, Lance Zimmerman stated, "Beef supply, especially the fresh product Americans like to grill, is mostly domestic. Prices are up, but the reasons include a continued strong demand for beef despite economic concerns coupled with a years-long downward trend in supply."

The beef cowherd size has been decreasing since 2019, leading to supply constraints. However, consumers have maintained their beef purchases despite economic difficulties, resulting in higher prices due to the combination of limited supply and robust demand.

Beer – the most American beverage? 
"Between relatively local supply chains and the ability of some multinational breweries to shift production of different brands from one location to another, beer prices for the BBQ will be less likely to be affected by tariffs, outside of some true imports," said Jim Watson, Beverage Analyst, Rabobank.

The beer supply chain typically operates on a local level, allowing major brewers to shift production of their 'imported' brands to US breweries in response to tariff changes. Over the years, the beer market has seen a trend towards 'premiumization,' favoring upscale brands over budget-friendly options, resulting in price hikes that have outpaced wines and spirits. Currently, consumer preferences are shifting towards hard seltzers and ready-to-drink cocktails, potentially leading brewers to grapple with an oversupply of inventory akin to challenges experienced by the competing wine and spirit producers.

The Takeaway
Prices for the backyard BBQ in 2025 are on the rise, driven by supply and demand dynamics and inflation rather than tariffs. The all-American summer BBQ experience is closely tied to an all-American supply chain, shielding backyard chefs from the uncertainties of trade wars. Digest more of the Rabobank 2025 BBQ Index featuring dairy, poultry, baking and produce here.

About Rabobank
Rabobank Group is a global financial services leader providing wholesale and retail banking, leasing, and real estate services in more than 37 countries worldwide. Founded over a century ago, Rabobank today is one of the world's largest banks with over $678 billion in assets.

In the Americas, Rabobank Wholesale Banking North America is a premier corporate and investment bank to the food, agribusiness, commodities and energy industries. For more information visit www.RabobankWholesaleBankingNA.com.

About RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness
RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness has about 80 analysts working in local teams across the worldwide Rabobank network. They generate knowledge, and develop views and insights on businesses, topics and developments in the food & agribusiness sectors across the globe. All analysts have their own sector specializations—ranging from meat and fish to dairy, vegetables, fruit and floriculture, coffee and cocoa.

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SOURCE Rabobank