Rabobank Poultry Quarterly Q3: Avian Flu Shuffles the Deck Chairs

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Sep 10, 2015, 01:00 ET

NEW YORK, Sept. 10, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The margin outlook for the global poultry industry is still strong. The industry is benefiting from ongoing bullish market fundamentals, according to Rabobank's latest Poultry Quarterly Q3 report. Supply is balanced in most regions, beef prices are high, feed costs are low. With China as the major exception, the industry is profitable in almost all major global regions.

Global poultry markets: avian influenza outbreak to hit regional markets.

Avian influenza (AI) remains a major concern for the global industry, with new outbreaks in most regions in the world, except Australia and South America. However, the number of outbreaks has been lower in the previous months, and this offers the industry in these regions some time to recover.

"The performance in most regions is currently improving, but the industry should have optimal biosecurity as its first priority, as avian influenza pressure is still significant. Any new case can have a big impact on regional and global trade streams, as we have seen in the past months, in which Brazil and Thailand have taken further market share in global poultry trade from the U.S. and China," says Nan-Dirk Mulder, animal protein analyst at Rabobank.

Rabobank believes the outlook for late 2015 and 2016 is bullish, as feed prices are still expected to remain at low pricing levels, and global breeding stock supply will be very low in regions with AI-related import restrictions, such as China and South-East Asia. The expectation that China will face a shortage in poultry and pork supply next year could especially become a major swing factor for the global poultry industry. The expected further spread of AI to key U.S. chicken production areas is a major wild card for the industry outlook in the second half of this year.

Regional outlook for the poultry industry

EU: Strong market conditions with healthy market balance and restrictive supply growth.
U.S.: Strong margins despite avian influenza trade bans.
Brazil: Weak local economy leads to trading-down effect, lifting poultry consumption.
China: Some improvement in poultry markets due to increasing pork prices.
Russia: Improved performance due to lower feed costs and price support from high beef and pork supply.

About Rabobank
Rabobank Group is a global financial services leader providing wholesale and retail banking, leasing, and real estate services in more than 40 countries worldwide. Founded over a century ago, Rabobank today is one of the largest banks in the world, with nearly $1 trillion in assets, and ranks among the 10 safest banks globally. In the Americas, Rabobank is a premier bank to the food, agribusiness and beverage industry, providing sector expertise, strategic counsel and tailored financial solutions to clients across the entire food value chain.

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