LONDON, Jan. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Bioradar UK Ltd this week reported that the H3N2 Lethality Gene Counts are approaching those of the highly lethal H3N2 pandemic of 1968 (1)(see Figure).
The severe flu outbreaks in 41 U.S. states in the first week of 2013 (CDC), predominately H3N2, further suggest that the State Fair 2012 H3N2 cases and the current outbreaks may be the opening salvos of an approaching H3N2 pandemic.
Bioradar UK Ltd reported in November 2012 that the Replikin Counts of the Replikins Infectivity Gene of H3N2 was rising. Between 2009 and 2011, the rising Count preceded the State Fair Swine Flu H3N2 Outbreak in children and pigs in the U.S. in 2012 (2).
The same Replikin technology measuring genomic H1N1 in Mexico in 2008 also correctly predicted the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic, one year before its emergence, and predicted the recent outbreaks of H5N1 in Cambodia, two years in advance (3-6).
In the present study of H3N2, 8,269 replikins lethality gene sequences were analyzed from 1968 to 2012. Virus "resting periods" with low levels of replication are correlated with Counts equal to and below 4.0 Replikins per 100 genomic amino acids; rising Counts above 4.0 to date invariably precede and predict major outbreaks and pandemics (p<0.001). All instances of statistically significant (p<0.001) increases or decreases in Replikin®Counts have correlated with outbreaks or clinical decreases respectively.
There have been no "false positives" or "false negatives" (2-5) in the replikin predictions: H1N1 (2008 prediction for the 2009 pandemic, 2010 for the 2010 outbreak, 2011 for 2012 outbreak); H5N1 (1996 for 1997, 2005 for 2006-07, 2009 for 2011 outbreak); three influenza pandemics of the past century- H1N1, H2N2, H3N2; SARS (2003 for 2004); Foot and Mouth Disease (2010 for 2011-12); E. Coli (2005-2010 for 2011); and malaria (for 1998-2006 decrease in mortality).
Because nine of nine trials indicate that a rising Replikin®Count is accurately predictive of specific strain outbreaks and their location, Bioradar UK Ltd has proposed the possibility of preventing or ameliorating the next flu pandemic (5). The risks of human as well as animal mortality are now predictable. The specific Replikin chemistry of the emerging pathogen's genome is now predictable. More time is now available, as early as one to two years in advance, to organize public health responses and to produce, to adequately test and to distribute vaccines and therapeutic agents well in advance of an outbreak.
The geographic site of an outbreak is also now predictable by Replikin Count, as shown by Bioradar in Mexico, Indonesia, Cambodia, and now in the U.S. (2-6). Production, testing and distribution of vaccine prior to the development of outbreaks and further escalation to pandemics in their local geographic site is now possible.
1. Ce'cile Viboud, et al , for the Multinational Inﬂuenza Seasonal Mortality Study Group.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 2005; 192:233–48
2. Report #52 <Replikins.com>website, 2006-2013.
3. Bogoch, S. and Bogoch, E.S. Genome Replikin Count™ Predicts Increased Infectivity/Lethality of Viruses. Nature Precedings npre20127144. O4April 2012.
4. Bogoch, S. and Bogoch, E.S. Prediction of specific virus outbreaks made from the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, replikins. Nature Precedings doi:10.1038/npre.2011.6279.1.23Aug 2011.
5. Bogoch,S. and Bogoch, ES. Bogoch Replikins Pandemic Prevention: Increase of Strain-Specific Influenza Genomic Replikin Counts, Having Predicted Outbreaks and their Location Seven Times Consecutively, Up to Two Years in Advance, Provides Time for Prevention of Pandemics. Nature Precedings.doi:10.1038/npre.2012.6952.1 01 March, 2012
6. UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) discussion of Replikins, DVM Newsmagazine, (Sept. 8, 2011). Reproduced in Report #42 , Replikins.com
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