NEW YORK, June 29 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
China's sugar industry had performed violent fluctuations last year, and therefore was under the spotlight of domestic commodity market. "An Industry Research White Paper - China Sugar Industry Annual Outlook for 2010 and Beyond" (hereinafter referred to as the White Paper) offers comprehensive and in-depth analysis on problems and plights that China's sugar market is facing, based on considerable quantities of survey and model simulation. It will be of great help to enterprises' operation, management and investment decisions.
Key points covered in the White Paper include:
- Cultivation of sugar cane and beet in China in 2010; forecast of sugar output in 2010/2011 crop year
- Analysis and forecast of sugar price trends on spot and futures market, 2010/2011, using economic model simulation
- In-depth research of this international sugar bull market; how can China use it for reference
- Consumption of the down-stream sugar industry; current and future demand for sugar by food and beverage industry
- Analysis and forecast on international sugar price trends in 2010/2011, using economic model simulation
- Theory and practice of hedging for sugar companies: case studies in 2009/2010 crop year
- Sugar purchases and sales policies by the state reserve: the influence on sugar price; quantitative analysis
- Sugar is not demon: survival strategies on sugar futures market
- Association between China's and international sugar market trends
- Financial attribute of sugar: analysis and forecast of CTA's influence on sugar price
Major research results of the White Paper:
- Based on comprehensive analysis, we believe that the average sugar price in China in 2010/2011 would be RMB 4890/ton, and that the price will fall below RMB 4890 /ton, maybe even lower than RMB 4000/ton.
- The sugar price in China will increase 4.92% in every ton of sugar that Chinese State Reserve Bureau (CSRB) purchases. According to historical datas, CSRB is supposed to purchase when the sugar price goes below RMB 4000/ton in 2010/2011 for the purpose of regulating the sugar price. State reserved sugar might depend on imports.
- According to periodicity, the sugar production in China is likely to increase in 2010/2011, topping about 12.5 million tons, up more than 10%.
- International average sugar price is 11.76 cent/pound in 2010/2011 crop year, and the model predicts that sugar price will fall below 12 cent/pound.
- Sugar manufacturers should be aware of cyclical fluctuations of the sugar industry and lock in profits through hedging, selecting the hedging point scientifically instead of impulsively.
- Chinese sugar manufacturers are ranked based on three main indicators, i.e. productivity, profitability, social forces, and six other indicators, i.e. capacity, output, total revenue, total profits, brand and benefits for peasants.
As an in-depth special research report of the sugar industry, the White Paper is the fruit of hard work and intelligence of many experts, put forward by Bric Global Agricultural Consultants Ltd., Beijing and Huachu.com of China Merchandise Reserve Management Center (CMRMC). The White Paper is based on critical issues of much concern within the sugar industry, referring to domestic and international condition, historical and current issues, production and trade, export and import, production and consumption, situation now and in the future. Theories and practices are closely combined, as well as demonstration and deduction. According to authorized datas and statistics and models, the White Paper puts forward and demonstrates many issues, conducts analysis and makes forecast of the sugar industry. The 2009's White Paper earned high reputation after published, whose forecast results were proved by the market afterwards. The White Paper of 2010 is expected to achieve more.
Major research results and viewpoints of the 2009 Sugar White Paper (Released on May 16th, 2009)
- Based on comprehensive analysis, we believe that the price of sugar will rise to over RMB4700/ton in 2009/10.
- The sugar price in China will increase 4.92% in every ton of sugar that Chinese State Reserve Bureau (CSRB) purchases. According to historical datas, the state-reserved sugar would be sold above the level of RMB4700/ton in 2009/10 (after the price of sugar reaches more than RMB4700/ton).
- According to periodicity, the sugar production in China is likely to decline in 2009/10, coming to about 11 million tons.
- The sugar consumption for industry use took 70% of the total sugar consumption in 2007/08, while that for private use took 30%. Beverage, candy and bakery are three major consumers, counting for 66% of the sugar consumption for industry use. The model predicted that China's food and beverage industry would continue to develop at the rate of 20% in 2009.
Review: Forecast of market trends of the sugar industry, 2008-2010
- On the first sugar forum of 30 in September, 2008, we predicted that the average sugar price would be RMB 4000/ton in 2008/2010 crop year, and that the sugar price would surpass RMB 4000/ton.
- On the press release of the sugar white paper on May 16th, 2009, we predicted that the average sugar price would be RMB 4700/ton in 2009/2010 crop year, and that the sugar price would surpass RMB 5000/ton. We forecast that the total sugar output of China would be about 11 million tons in 2009/2010 crop year. The state reserve would sell sugar when the price goes above RMB 4700/ton.
- On the second sugar forum of 30 on August 31st, 2009, we held that the sugar price was not likely to top the 2006 level, based on the storage-consumption ratio.
- In September, 2009, we put forward that sugar manufacturers should sell hedge on the futures market with the price escalation to above RMB 4700/ton.
- Bric warned at October 18th, 2009 that people could buy a dip within 2-3 weeks and lock in gains when the third week started. The expansion in the futures market would be more than RMB 250/ton.
- On December 31st, 2009, Bric held that there existed high risk in the sugar price. Companies should definitely hedge in batches when the price goes above RMB?5700/ton. If not, they would regret, because the sugar price was about to go below RMB 4000/ton.
- On February 10th, 2010, three factors on the sugar market are favourable for the decline of stock price: Brazil's early crushing might lead to an international price drop to below 20 cents; there might be adjustment in macro-economy; the state reserve might sell sugar again after the Spring Festival.
- In March, 2010, the sugar price might rebound. Therefore, selling hedge was not recommended.
Preface (Executive summary, definition, methodologies, models and data notes of the present paper)
1.1 Executive summary of the white paper
1.2 Definitions in the white paper
1.2.1 The definition of the sugar industry
1.2.2 The definition of sugar-related industries
1.3 General statement: methodologies, models and data notes
1.4 Main points of 2009's sugar white paper and the review of market movements
1.5 Main contents of study in 2010's sugar white paper
Development environment of China's sugar industry
2.1 Domestic development environment of the sugar industry, 2006-2009
2.1.1 Global economy after the financial crisis
2.1.2 Chinese macro-economy, 2006-2009
2.1.3 Development trends of Chinese macro-economy, 2010-2012
2.1.4 Related policies and the influence on the sugar industry, 2009-2010
2.2 International environment of China's sugar industry, 2006-2009
2.2.1 Traits of the development of global sugar industry in recent years
2.2.2 The development of major sugar-producing countries, 2006-2009
2.2.3 Review and analysis of the bull-market of international sugar 009-2010
Analysis and outlook of the international sugar market, 2009/2010
3.1 Charts and analysis: the supply and demand of sugar in the world, 2009
3.1.1 The collection of datas of the global sugar industry
3.1.2 The supply and demand of sugar in the world, 2010
3.1.3 The estimation of sugar production in the world
3.1.4 The estimation of sugar consumption in the world
3.1.5 Changes in the supply and demand of sugar in the world: the gap and its variation
3.2 Analysis and outlook of changes in the supply and demand of the global sugar industry
(quantitative analysis, a key point of the paper)
3.2.1 General statement of prediction methods
3.2.2 Prediction: the sugar production in the global sugar industry
3.2.3 Prediction: the demand for sugar in the global sugar industry
3.2.4 Prediction: exports and imports of the global sugar industry
3.3 Analysis and outlook of the international sugar price trend, 2010
3.3.1 Influence factors of international sugar price trends, 2009 (price forecasting technology)
3.3.2 Forecast: the international sugar price trend, 2010/2011 (quantitative analysis, a
key point of the paper)
3.4 Current situation of the international sugar trade and development trends
3.4.1 Current situation of the global sugar industry
3.4.2 How will the weak dollar be in the future, and how will it affect the trade of sugar?
3.4.3 Development trends of the international sugar trade and its influence on China
3.5 Analysis of inventory strategies of big countries, considering the boom of India's sugar
Analysis and outlook of China's sugar market, 2009/2010
4.1 Review of China's sugar market in crop year 2008/2009-2009/2010
4.1.1 Review: prediction of the sugar production in two crop years
4.1.2 Review: prediction of the sugar price in two crop years
4.1.3 Review: main policies and spirits of conferences in the sugar industry in two crop years
4.1.4 The influence of macro-economic trends on the sugar industry
4.2 Charts and analysis: the supply and demand of sugar in China, 2009
4.2.1 The collection and compilation of datas in China's sugar industry
4.2.2 Charts: the supply and demand of sugar in China, 2009/2010
4.2.3 Estimation: domestic sugar production
4.2.4 Estimation: domestic sugar consumption
4.2.5 Changes in the supply and demand of sugar in China: the gap and its variation
4.3 Analysis and outlook: the supply and demand in China's sugar industry (quantitative
analysis, a key point of the paper)
4.3.1 General statement of prediction methods
4.3.2 Predicting the production of the sugar industry
4.3.3 Predicting the demand of the sugar industry
4.3.4 Predicting imports and exports of the sugar industry
4.4 Analysis and outlook: price trends of sugar in China
4.4.1 Influence factors of China's sugar price trends, 2009
4.4.2 Analysis and outlook: trends of the sugar price in the international market in
crop year 2008/2009
4.4.3 Outlook of China's sugar price trends for 2009-2012 (quantitative analysis, a key
point of the paper)
4.5 Cost and benefit of the sugar industry
4.5.1 Yearly cost and benefit of beet sugar manufacture and of competitive crops
4.5.2 Yearly cost and benefit of cane sugar manufacture and of competitive crops
4.5.3 Yearly cost and benefit of corn starch sugar (sweetener) and of competitive crops
4.6 State reserve policies in China's sugar industry and the influence on sugar price
4.6.1 Review: purchase policies for national reserve and purchase events
4.6.2 Sales of national reserved sugar in the crop year of 2009/2010 and its influence
4.6.3 Empirical analysis: the pattern of purchases and sales of national reserved sugar
4.6.4 Macro control policies in China's sugar industry and strategic choices of sugar
4.7 Market research: the consumption of sugar in districts of China
4.7.1 Major consumers (industries) of sugar and latent demand in China (growth and
4.7.2 Empirical analysis: the influence of the growth of Chinese population on the
consumption of sugar
4.7.3 The demand for sugar by families in China
4.7.4 The demand for sugar by major industry segmentations in China
4.7.5 The sugar consumption in East, China (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui,
Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong)
4.7.6 The sugar consumption in South, China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan)
4.7.7 The sugar consumption in North, China (Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Inner
4.7.8 The sugar consumption in Central China (Hubei, Hunan, Henan)
4.7.9 The sugar consumption in Northeast, China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning)
4.7.10 The sugar consumption in Southwest, China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan,
4.7.11 The sugar consumption in Northwest, China (Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu,
4.8 Current situation and development trends of China's sugar exports and imports
4.8.1 Current situation of China's sugar exports and imports
4.8.2 The influence of riding trends of dollar on China's sugar exports and imports
4.8.3 Analysis and outlook: Changes in China's sugar trade, 2010-2015
4.9 Top ten enterprises in China's sugar industry, 2010
4.9.1 Yangpu Nanhua Sugar Group Ltd.
4.9.2 Donta Group
4.9.3 Nongken Sugar Group
4.9.4 Hengfu Group
4.9.5 Nanning Sugar Ltd.
4.9.6 Xinjiang Lvyuan
4.9.7 Yingmao Sugar
4.9.8 Botian Sugar Ltd.
4.9.9 COFCO Tunhe
4.9.10 Power Group
Sugar futures: the financial attribute of sugar
5.1 Introduction on sugar futures
5.1.1 What are sugar futures?
5.1.2 Star products in the futures market
5.1.3 The status of sugar futures in China's sugar industry
5.1.4 Raw sugar futures in New York, U.S.
5.2 Hedging theory and practice of sugar manufacturers: case studies in crop year 2009/2010
5.2.1 Hedging theory and practice of sugar manufacturers, 2009/2010
5.2.2 Case study: hedging in sugar manufacturer A
5.2.3 Guidance case studies: model forecasting of prices in hedging
5.2.4 Sugar hedging service system of Bric
5.3 Financial attribute of sugar: the influence of CTA's development on China's sugar futures
5.3.1 The influence of sugar futures on sugar price trends in China
5.3.2 Sugar is not demon: how to survive in the sugar futures market?
5.3.3 The influence of CTA's development on China's sugar futures
Expert opinion on sugar, assessing China's sugar industry
6.1 The dollar exchange rate is affected by Greece and E. U.; the global sugar market, by
India, Pakistan and Far East
6.2 The sugar market in 2010 and national reserved sugar having positive impact on the
6.3 American sugar and China's demand
Outlook of the sugar industry in China and the world
7.1 Outlook of China's sugar industry
7.1.1 Forecast of the production environment of the sugar industry
7.1.2 Forecast of export and import environment of the sugar industry
7.1.3 The development of the sugar industry in the future
7.2 Outlook of the global sugar industry
7.2.1 The development of cane sugar ethanol industry in Brazil
7.2.2 Forecast of the development of India's sugar industry
7.2.3 Forecast of the global sugar industry in the future
7.3 Summary of points contained in the present paper
1. The present paper is conducted by researchers of our company, with relevant research methods and public, legal information, offering corresponding assessments of research objects. Viewpoints contained in the paper solely represent our company, and are for reference only. No investment advice is given. Clients have to judge by themselves, considering their own conditions. Bric disclaims all responsibility for investments of its clients.
2. Bric strives for the integrity and accuracy of the information, yet cannot guarantee the total exactness of all information. The information offered by the paper, including but not limited to datas, viewpoints and words, does not constitute any evidence in law.
3. If there is any change in research objects of the paper, we are not going to give any further notification.
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