NEW YORK, April 21, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
http://www.reportlinker.com/p0170054/Asia---Telecom-Forecasts.html
Publication Overview
This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. The report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 23 countries across Asia. It is noted that our report has mainly focused on developing economies in the region where the main segments of the markets are more often than not in their early subscriber growth phases.
The countries covered in this report include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
Executive Summary
No stopping mobile subscriber growth and internet connectivity
The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are summarised in a series of tables.
Our scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.
A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Vietnam. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts are for the years 2015 and 2020.
Vietnam – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Vietnam – Forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Vietnam – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Background notes to market forecasts
Mobile markets in Asia have continued experiencing strong growth during 2010. A total of more than 2.6 billion mobile subscribers in early 2011 and an average annual growth of over 25% (excluding the most highly penetrated markets) have combined to see the Asia region with the fastest growing telecommunications markets in the world. With difficult economic conditions and some markets saturating it is not surprising that the growth rate has slowed somewhat over the last year or so. This is after a period where annual mobile subscriber growth rates in Asia had been well in excess of 50%. Overall regional penetration had reached an estimated 65% by end-2010, suggesting that there was still more room for subscriber growth across the region. Coming into 2011 there were more than 12 countries in Asia with mobile penetration levels in excess of 100%. Not surprisingly, the global financial crisis had caused some caution in mobile markets across the region for a while, mainly in 2009; after a pause the momentum has quickly begun to pick up again.
Particularly relevant in the context of rapidly growing markets that still have some further room for expansion are India and China where monthly net additions have regularly been close to 10 million subscribers. These two countries combined account for around 60% of overall market share in the Asia-Pacific region. There is still room for substantial growth throughout the region and we can expect markets with large populations and relatively low penetration rates such as India, China, Philippines, Pakistan and Indonesia will continue to grow at a healthy pace. Growth is being driven by various factors, including government investment to drive the economy; infrastructure building or fixing the after-effects of war as well as major foreign investment projects.
In terms of growth rates, not surprisingly it is the smaller and generally less-developed markets that have been expanding rapidly. More recently, the rate of growth has clearly been much cooler than back in 2007, however; in that year there were seven countries in Asia with annual growth rates in excess of 90%. By 2010 there were no markets with growth rates in excess of 100% (North Korea came in at around 96%). In the developing economies, quick and easy mobile uptake has for a long time been the preferred, and often the only, option for subscribers, given the low levels of fixed-line deployments. In order to prevent ARPU slide in these markets, operators are offering value added mobile services such as mobile banking, remittance payments and mobile health services that take advantage of lack of access by the poor to social infrastructure such as banks and hospitals.
Market competition has driven handset prices and airtime tariffs downward, thus opening up mobile services to wider adoption. The rate of adoption of wireless Internet has started to rise with the overall increase in mobile penetration together with networks being progressively upgraded to next generation platforms. While 3G licensing and the ongoing launch of 3G services in Asia has certainly been promoting the growth of wireless data services, 3G has also been providing opportunities for both wireless access and content providers in domestic markets. In South Asia, in particular, more people own a mobile phone than a PC, giving the delivery of mobile data services huge potential there.
The growth of mobile Internet across Asia is being largely driven by competition in the market place and has been boosted by the advent of 3G+ services. Market competition has been driving handset prices and airtime tariffs downward, thus opening up mobile services to wider adoption. The rate of adoption of wireless Internet was expected to rise with the overall increase in mobile penetration and as networks are upgraded. LTE is also rolling out in the more mature markets such as Japan which already has close to 100% 3G penetration.
Asia makes a strong claim to be leading the world when it comes to the development of broadband Internet. In fact, after the mobile market, broadband has been the fastest growing telecom market segment in Asia. The energetic expansion of broadband has been more of a phenomenon in the developed economies, with narrowband access continuing to be the norm in most of the poorer developing countries of the region. This is changing, however. With DSL dominating the world market, Asia has become the leading region with about 35% of the global DSL subscribers. More recently, we have seen FttX as an alternative platform for broadband access in Asia. In the leading technology markets of Japan and South Korea and Taiwan in 2011, FttX has been displacing other forms of high speed Internet access. Asia accounts for around 85% of global FttX subscriptions and China dominates the lead with over 30 million subscribers.
Although there are broad market commonalities, there are trends that are specific to each country in Asia Pacific depending on the level of technology adoption and the presence of government intervention and competition.
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.
Table of Contents
1. Afghanistan
1.1 Overview
1.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
1.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
1.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
2. Azerbaijan
2.1 Overview
2.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
2.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2010; 2015; 2020
2.4 Forecasts –mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
3. Bangladesh
3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
3.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
3.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
4. Cambodia
4.1 Overview
4.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
4.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
4.4 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
5. China
5.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2010 - 2011; 2015
5.2 Forecast Internet users – 2010 - 2011; 2014
5.3 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2010 - 2011; 2015
5.4 Forecast FttX subscribers – 2010 - 2011; 2015
5.5 IPTV forecasts
5.6 Cable TV market forecasts – 2010 - 2011; 2015
5.7 Digital cable TV market forecasts – 2010 - 2011; 2015
5.8 Forecast: Total mobile subscribers 2010 - 2011; 2015
5.9 Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers 2010 - 2011; 2015
6. Georgia
6.1 Overview
6.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
6.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
6.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
7. Hong Kong
7.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2010; 2015; 2020
7.2 Forecast mobile subscribers – 2010; 2015; 2020
8. India
8.1 Overview
8.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
8.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
8.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
9. Indonesia
9.1 Overview
9.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020
9.3 Forecasts – Internet services 2015; 2020
9.4 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020
10. Japan
10.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2011 - 2012; 2016
10.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: 2010 - 2011; 2016
10.3 Forecast FttX subscribers: 2010 - 2011; 2016
10.4 Forecast Mobile subscribers: 2010 - 2012; 2016
11. Kazakhstan
11.1 Overview
11.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
11.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
11.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
12. Laos
12.1 Overview
12.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
12.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
12.4 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
13. Macau
13.1 Forecast mobile subscribers – 2010; 2015; 2020
14. Malaysia
14.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
14.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
14.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
15. Nepal
15.1 Overview
15.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
15.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
15.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
16. Pakistan
16.1 Overview
16.2 Forecast – fixed line market – 2015; 2020
16.3 Forecasts – Internet market – 2015; 2020
16.4 Forecast – mobile market – 2015; 2020
17. Philippines
17.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
17.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
17.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
18. South Korea
18.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2010 - 2011; 2015
18.2 Forecast internet users – 2010 - 2011; 2015
18.3 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2010 - 2011; 2015
18.4 Forecast: Mobile subscribers: 2010 - 2011; 2015
19. Sri Lanka
19.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
19.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
19.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
20. Taiwan
20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2011; 2016
20.2 Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – 2011; 2016
20.3 Forecast FttX subscribers – 2011; 2016
20.4 Forecast total mobile subscribers – 2011; 2016
20.5 Forecast 3G mobile subscribers – 2011; 2016
21. Thailand
21.1 Overview
21.2 Forecasts – fixed lines – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
21.3 Forecasts - Internet subscribers – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
21.4 Forecasts - mobile subscribers – 2000 - 2008; 2013; 2018
22. Uzbekistan
22.1 Overview
22.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
22.3 Forecasts – Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
22.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
23. Vietnam
23.1 Overview
23.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
23.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
23.4 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
24. Glossary of Abbreviations
List of Tables
Table 1 – Afghanistan – forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 2 – Afghanistan – forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 3 – Afghanistan – forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 4 – Azerbaijan – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 5 – Azerbaijan – forecast Internet subscribers – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 6 – Azerbaijan – forecast mobile subscribers – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 7 – Bangladesh – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 8 – Bangladesh – forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 9 – Bangladesh – forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 10 – Cambodia – forecast fixed-line growth – 2015; 2020
Table 11 – Cambodia – forecast Internet subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
Table 12 – Cambodia – forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
Table 13 – China – forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 14 – China – forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 15 – China – forecast Internet users and penetration – lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2014
Table 16 – China – forecast Internet users and penetration – higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2014
Table 17 – China – forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 18 – China – forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 19 – China – forecast FttX subscribers and penetration: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 20 – China – forecast cable TV subscribers and household penetration: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 21 – China – forecast digital cable TV subscribers and percentage of cable TV subscribers: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 22 – China – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 23 – China – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 24 – China – forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile market – 2010 - 2011, 2015
Table 25 – Georgia – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 26 – Georgia – forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 27 – Georgia – forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 28 – Hong Kong – forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – lower band – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 29 – Hong Kong – forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – higher band – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 30 – Hong Kong – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 31 – Hong Kong – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 32 – India – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 33 – India – forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 34 – India – forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 35 – Indonesia – forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 36 – Indonesia – forecast of Internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 37 – Indonesia – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 38 – Japan – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2010 - 2012; 2016
Table 39 – Japan – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2010 - 2012; 2016
Table 40 – Japan – forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2009 - 2011; 2016
Table 41 – Japan – forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2009 - 2011; 2016
Table 42 – Japan – forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2009 - 2011; 2016
Table 43 – Japan – forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2009 - 2011; 2016
Table 44 – Japan – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2010 - 2012; 2016
Table 45 – Japan – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2010 - 2012; 2016
Table 46 – Kazakhstan – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 47 – Kazakhstan – forecast Internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 48 – Kazakhstan – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 49 – Laos – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 50 – Laos – forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 51 – Laos – forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 52 – Macau – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate– 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 53 – Malaysia – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 54 – Malaysia – forecast broadband Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 55 – Malaysia – forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 56 – Nepal's GDP growth – 2005 - 2010
Table 57 – Nepal – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 58 – Nepal – forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 59 – Nepal – forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 60 – Pakistan – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 61 – Pakistan – forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 62 – Pakistan – forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 63 – Philippines – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 64 – Philippines – forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 65 – Philippines – forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 66 – South Korea – forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 67 – South Korea – forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 68 – South Korea – forecast internet users and penetration - lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 69 – South Korea – forecast internet users and penetration - higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 70 – South Korea – forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 71 – South Korea – forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 72 – South Korea – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 73 – South Korea – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2010 - 2011; 2015
Table 74 – Sri Lanka – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 75 – Sri Lanka – forecast Internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 76 – Sri Lanka – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 77 – Taiwan – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 78 – Taiwan – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 79 – Taiwan – forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 80 – Taiwan – forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 81 – Taiwan – forecast FttX subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 82 – Taiwan – forecast FttX subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 83 – Taiwan – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 84 – Taiwan – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 85 – Taiwan – forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 86 – Taiwan – forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2010 - 2011; 2016
Table 87 – Thailand – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 88 – Thailand – forecast Internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 89 – Thailand – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 90 – Uzbekistan – forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 91 – Uzbekistan – forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 92 – Uzbekistan – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 93 – Vietnam – forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 94 – Vietnam – forecast Internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 95 – Vietnam – forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
To order this report:
Check our Company Profile, SWOT and Revenue Analysis!
Nicolas Bombourg
Reportlinker
Email: [email protected]
US: (805)652-2626
Intl: +1 805-652-2626
SOURCE Reportlinker
Share this article