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The main factor that will impact the job market over the forecast period will be the pace of economic recovery. Job creation lags economic growth, so unemployment is likely to get worse before it gets better.
There were early signs of economic recovery by mid-2009, fuelled by government stimulus packages and central bank policies. However, the effects of the crisis will be felt for many years to come, as government budget deficits and debt levels have soared to record levels.
As the financial crisis has caused companies to cut costs more quickly than they might have in an ordinary recession, the loss in value of assets and the excess of debt means that eventual recovery is likely to be too weak to create jobs rapidly.
When demand does pick up again, the structure of the job market will be different. Export-orientated economies, such as China and Germany, will have to rely more on domestic spending, and employees will need to find very different lines of work.
In most countries, unemployment is expected to peak in 2010, and although it may remain high for some years, it will begin to come down towards the end of the forecast period.
In the long term, governments will need to make their labour markets more flexible. This will mean abolishing job subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers' privileges and making it easier for businesses to restructure by laying people off.
As the global population continues to age and life expectancy increases, the workforce will age too. The pensions crisis and changing legislation will force many people to work for longer, while many retirees will want to supplement meagre pensions with part-time work.
Several governments are in the process of incrementally increasing the age at which both men and women can receive public pensions, in some cases to as high as 68 over the longer term.
Migration will play an increasingly important part in the global economic landscape in the long term, as labour markets become more flexible and some countries with low population growth and ageing populations will rely on immigration to replenish the workforce.
In the short term, migration is likely to slow, due to more restrictive immigration policies and poor job prospects, which are deterring would-be migrants from entering countries that were previously considered lands of opportunity, such as the US, the UK and Spain.
Having risen strongly over the long term, it is unlikely that the women's participation rate in the workforce will increase to a much greater extent over the forecast period. However, women may see their incomes rise due to stricter discrimination laws.
Workers will continue to strive for a better work-life balance, and will be aided by the efforts of governments and employers to introduce more flexible working arrangements, including flexi-hours, part-time jobs, childcare facilities and the opportunity to work more from home.
The concept of teleworking will be facilitated by continuous improvements in information and telecommunications technology, which will enable people to network from anywhere and at any time.
Euromonitor International's Changing Face of the Household: Global Trends and Forecasts to 2015 Strategy Briefings is a series of reports that alert you to global trends predicted to influence consumer markets. They offer insight to changing market conditions and the opportunities and challenges companies need to consider to maintain a competitive advantage.
List of Contents and Tables
Executive Summary.... 1
The Labour Market . 1
Chart 1 Economically Active Population by Region: % Breakdown 2008. 1
Working Conditions 2
Employment Trends 2
Summary 1 Impact of Changing Work Patterns: Opportunities and Threats ... 4
Key Trends in Unemployment .... 5
Economically active population . 6
Employed population ... 6
Employment rate 7
Labour force participation rate . 7
Employed male/female population .. 7
Family workers ... 7
Average working week in non-agricultural activities .... 7
The Labour Market ... 7
Economically Active Population 7
Table 1 Economically Active Population by Region 2003/2008 . 8
Table 2 Economically Active Population as % Total Population by Region 2003-2008 .... 8
Table 3 Economically Active Population in Major Markets 2003/2008 .... 9
Table 4 Labour Force Participation Rates in Selected Countries 2003-2008 10
Age Profile of Work Force ... 10
Table 5 Economically Active Population by Country and by Age 2008 .. 12
Working Conditions . 12
Labour Market Regulation .. 12
Workplace Discrimination .. 14
Working Hours . 14
Table 6 Average Working Week in Manufacturing: Major Markets 2003-2008 .... 16
Leave Entitlements 17
Chart 2 Paid Holiday Allowance in Major Markets 2008 18
Maternity Benefits . 19
Chart 3 Length of Maternity Leave in Selected Countries 2008 20
Informal Employment 20
Wage Trends 21
Chart 4 Average Wage in Non-agricultural Activities in Selected Markets 2008 ... 22
Table 7 Index of Wage Growth Versus CPI in Selected Markets 2003-2008 .... 23
The Gender Pay Gap.. 24
Employment Trends . 25
Shift from Industry to Services . 25
Table 8 Employment in Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing in Selected Countries 2003/2008 ... 27
Table 9 Employment in Manufacturing in Selected Countries 2003/2008 .... 27
Table 10 Employment in Construction in Selected Countries 2003/2008 .. 27 Strategy Briefings: The Changing Face of the
Table 11 Employment in Community, Education, Health, Social, Personal Services, Public Admin and Defence in Selected Countries 2003/2008 28
Table 12 Employment in Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services in Selected Countries 2003/2008 ... 28
Table 13 Employment in Trade; Motor Vehicles, and Personal and Household Goods Repair; Hotels and Restaurants in Selected Countries 2003/2008 ... 29
Ageing of the Workforce . 29
Table 14 Economically Active Population by Country and by Age: % Growth 2003/2008 31
Shrinking Pension Pot .... 32
Generational Differences in Work Attitudes . 35
Rise in Female Employment 36
Chart 5 Women's Share of the Workforce in Selected Countries 2003/2008 .... 38
Chart 6 Women's Share of the Part-Time Workforce in Selected Countries 2003/2008 . 38
Shift Towards Part-time Employment .. 39
Table 15 Part-Time Employees as a % of the Total Economically Active Population in Selected Markets 2003-2008 . 41
Self-employment .... 42
Table 16 The Share of Self-Employed People in Selected Markets 2003-2008 ... 43
Striving for Work-Life Balance 44
Working from Home ... 45
Table 17 Telecommuter Profile in the US 2006/2008 .. 46
Labour Mobility .... 46
Chart 7 Leading Recipients of Migrant Remittances Among Developing Countries 2008 ... 50
Unemployment Trends .. 51
The Good Years: 2003-2008 .... 51
Table 18 Unemployment Rates in Selected Markets 2003-2008 . 52
The Crisis: 2009.... 52
Unemployment by Age .... 53
Table 19 Unemployment by Age in Selected Countries 2008 55
Government Responses to Unemployment 56
Implications for Marketers .. 57
Trends in Key Markets . 58
Brazil . 58
Table 20 Brazil: Key Data 2008-2010 . 60
China . 60
Table 21 China: Key Data 2008-2010.. 61
Table 22 France: Key Data 2008-2010 62
Germany . 63
Table 23 Germany: Key Data 2008-2010 . 63
Japan . 64
Table 24 Japan: Key Data 2008-2010 .. 64
UK . 65
Table 25 UK: Key Data 2008-2010 66
US . 66
Table 26 US: Key Data 2008-2010 . 67
Outlook .. 68
Table 27 Forecast Unemployment Rates in Selected Markets 2008-2013 . 69
Workforce will Continue to Age .... 69
Migration will Slow ... 70
Table 28 Forecast Remittance Flows to Developing Countries 2008-2010 .... 70
Female Workforce Participation Reaches its Peak . 71
Table 29 Forecast Share of Women in the Economically Active Population 2008/2013.... 71
Workers Continue to Strive for Work-Life Balance 71
Part-time Employment will Continue to Rise 72
Table 30 Forecast Share of Part-Time Employment 2008/2013 . 72
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