Republicans Lead in Generic Ballot 44% to Democrats' 43%

Among the small 2% who have already voted, Republicans lead 53% to 41%

Oct 22, 2010, 07:02 ET from Harris Interactive

NEW YORK, Oct. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- If the election for the House of Representatives were held today, among those who say they are absolutely or very certain to vote, it would be a close race, with 44% saying they would vote for the Republican candidate and 43% voting for the Democratic candidate. Among the very small percentage (2%) who had already voted by October 18th, over half (53%) said they voted for the Republican candidate and 41% said they voted for the Democratic candidate.

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Even after being pushed, one in ten Americans who are at least probably certain to vote (11%) are still not sure who they would vote for in this upcoming election. Among those who say they are absolutely or very certain to vote, 6% are still not sure.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 3,084 adults surveyed online between October 11 and 18, 2010 by Harris Interactive.

Likely vote by party

Looking at this by party, partisan bases are mostly holding. Over four in five Democrats (85%) say they are voting for the Democratic candidate and over four in five Republicans (86%) say they are voting for the Republican candidate. Among those who say they are a supporter of the Tea Party movement, almost three-quarters (72%) say they are voting for the Republican candidate while 12% are voting for the Democratic candidate and 12% are voting for another candidate. Independents are leaning Republican – four in ten (41%) are voting for the Republican candidate, 31% are voting for the Democratic candidate, 16% are voting another party's candidate and 13% are not sure.

Enthusiasm

In terms of likelihood to vote, Republicans still hold an edge over Democrats. Three in five Republicans (61%) say they are absolutely certain to vote while 7% say they will not vote. Among Democrats, just over half (54%) say they are absolutely certain to vote and 11% will not vote.  Independents fall in the middle with 57% saying they are absolutely certain to vote. The 2% who say they have already voted is split evenly – that is, 2% of Republicans, Democrats and Independents say they have already voted.

So What?

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, there is still enough uncertainty to make the Get-Out-The-Vote effort by both parties very important. It's always true that it all comes down to turnout. This year is no different, but with one in ten likely voters still unsure about which party's candidate will get their vote, the party who talks to them last or most often may prevail.

TABLE 1
Voting Likelihood
"An election for the House of Representatives will be held on November 2nd.  How certain are you that you will vote?"


Base: All U.S. adults


Total

Political Party

Tea Party

Rep.

Dem.

Ind.

Supporter

%

%

%

%

%

Will Vote

77

86

79

78

89

    Absolutely certain I will vote

53

61

54

57

66

    Very certain I will vote

12

12

14

10

12

    I probably will vote

12

13

12

10

11

Will Not Vote

13

7

11

13

5

    I probably will not vote

6

3

6

7

2

    I am certain I will not vote

7

4

5

6

3

I have already voted

2

2

2

2

2

Not sure if I will vote

8

5

8

7

3


Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

"*" indicates less than 0.5%; "- " indicates no response



TABLE 2A
VOTING OPTIONS
"We'd like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the House of Representatives election on November 2nd, 2010.  If the House of Representatives election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote?  [ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED: For which candidate for the House of Representatives did you vote?]?"


Base: All U.S. adults excluding those who say they are certain that they will not vote


Total

Political Party

Tea Party

Rep.

Dem.

Ind.

Supporter

%

%

%

%

%

Democratic candidate

39

4

79

28

11

Republican candidate

36

83

5

35

68

Other

7

4

2

13

11

Not sure

19

10

13

24

10


Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding



TABLE 2B
VOTING OPTIONS
"We'd like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the House of Representatives election on November 2nd, 2010.  If the House of Representatives election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote?  [ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED: For which candidate for the House of Representatives did you vote?]?"


Base: All U.S. adults excluding those who say they are certain that they will not vote


Total

Voting Intention



Absolutely or Very certain to vote

Probably will vote

Already voted

Will not vote


%

%

%

%

%

Democratic candidate

39

40

40

41

40

Republican candidate

36

40

39

53

18

Other

7

7

7

6

10

Not sure

19

12

14

-

32


Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding



TABLE 3A
LEANER VOTES
"Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for the House of Representatives?  Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is."


Base: U.S. adults not sure who they will vote for


Total

Political Party

Tea Party

Rep.

Dem.

Ind.

Supporter

%

%

%

%

%

Democratic candidate

19

8

42

13

8

Republican candidate

17

36

7

24

43

Other

6

2

2

10

15

Not sure

58

55

49

54

34


Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding



TABLE 3B
LEANER VOTES
"Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for the House of Representatives?  Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is."


Base: U.S. adults not sure who they will vote for


Total

Voting Intention

Absolutely or Very certain to vote

Probably will vote

Already voted

Will not vote

%

%

%

%

%

Democratic candidate

19

22

23

-

18

Republican candidate

17

26

23

-

7

Other

6

5

5

-

15

Not sure

58

47

49

-

59


Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding



TABLE 4A
COMBINED PLANNED VOTES AND LEANER VOTES
"We'd like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the House of Representatives election on November 2nd, 2010.  If the House of Representatives election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote?  [ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED: For which candidate for the House of Representatives did you vote?][ASKED OF THOSE NOT SURE: Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for the House of Representatives?  Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is.]"


Base: All U.S. adults excluding those who say they are certain that they will not vote


Total

Political Party

Tea Party

Rep.

Dem.

Ind.

Supporter

%

%

%

%

%

Democratic candidate

42

5

85

31

12

Republican candidate

39

86

6

41

72

Other

8

4

3

16

12

Not sure

11

5

7

13

4


Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding



TABLE 4B
COMBINED PLANNED VOTES AND LEANER VOTES
"We'd like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the House of Representatives election on November 2nd, 2010.  If the House of Representatives election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote?  [ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED: For which candidate for the House of Representatives did you vote?][ASKED OF THOSE NOT SURE: Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for the House of Representatives?  Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is.]"


Base: All U.S. adults excluding those who say they are certain that they will not vote


Total

Voting Intention

Absolutely or Very certain to vote

Probably will vote

Already voted

Will not vote

%

%

%

%

%

Democratic candidate

42

43

43

41

46

Republican candidate

39

44

42

53

20

Other

8

8

8

6

15

Not sure

11

6

7

-

19


Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding



Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between October 11 to 18, 2010 among 3,084 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J38848

Q1245, 1255, 1256

The Harris Poll® #126, October 22, 2010

By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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press@harrisinteractive.net



SOURCE Harris Interactive



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