Republicans Lead in Generic Ballot 44% to Democrats' 43%

Among the small 2% who have already voted, Republicans lead 53% to 41%

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Oct 22, 2010, 07:02 ET

NEW YORK, Oct. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- If the election for the House of Representatives were held today, among those who say they are absolutely or very certain to vote, it would be a close race, with 44% saying they would vote for the Republican candidate and 43% voting for the Democratic candidate. Among the very small percentage (2%) who had already voted by October 18th, over half (53%) said they voted for the Republican candidate and 41% said they voted for the Democratic candidate.

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Even after being pushed, one in ten Americans who are at least probably certain to vote (11%) are still not sure who they would vote for in this upcoming election. Among those who say they are absolutely or very certain to vote, 6% are still not sure.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 3,084 adults surveyed online between October 11 and 18, 2010 by Harris Interactive.

Likely vote by party

Looking at this by party, partisan bases are mostly holding. Over four in five Democrats (85%) say they are voting for the Democratic candidate and over four in five Republicans (86%) say they are voting for the Republican candidate. Among those who say they are a supporter of the Tea Party movement, almost three-quarters (72%) say they are voting for the Republican candidate while 12% are voting for the Democratic candidate and 12% are voting for another candidate. Independents are leaning Republican – four in ten (41%) are voting for the Republican candidate, 31% are voting for the Democratic candidate, 16% are voting another party's candidate and 13% are not sure.

Enthusiasm

In terms of likelihood to vote, Republicans still hold an edge over Democrats. Three in five Republicans (61%) say they are absolutely certain to vote while 7% say they will not vote. Among Democrats, just over half (54%) say they are absolutely certain to vote and 11% will not vote. Independents fall in the middle with 57% saying they are absolutely certain to vote. The 2% who say they have already voted is split evenly – that is, 2% of Republicans, Democrats and Independents say they have already voted.

So What?

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, there is still enough uncertainty to make the Get-Out-The-Vote effort by both parties very important. It's always true that it all comes down to turnout. This year is no different, but with one in ten likely voters still unsure about which party's candidate will get their vote, the party who talks to them last or most often may prevail.

TABLE 1 Voting Likelihood "An election for the House of Representatives will be held on November 2nd. How certain are you that you will vote?" Base: All U.S. adults
	Total	Political Party			Tea Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Supporter
	%	%	%	%	%
Will Vote	77	86	79	78	89
Absolutely certain I will vote	53	61	54	57	66
Very certain I will vote	12	12	14	10	12
I probably will vote	12	13	12	10	11
Will Not Vote	13	7	11	13	5
I probably will not vote	6	3	6	7	2
I am certain I will not vote	7	4	5	6	3
I have already voted	2	2	2	2	2
Not sure if I will vote	8	5	8	7	3
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding "*" indicates less than 0.5%; "- " indicates no response

TABLE 2A VOTING OPTIONS "We'd like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the House of Representatives election on November 2nd, 2010. If the House of Representatives election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote? [ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED: For which candidate for the House of Representatives did you vote?]?" Base: All U.S. adults excluding those who say they are certain that they will not vote
	Total	Political Party			Tea Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Supporter
	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	39	4	79	28	11
Republican candidate	36	83	5	35	68
Other	7	4	2	13	11
Not sure	19	10	13	24	10
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2B VOTING OPTIONS "We'd like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the House of Representatives election on November 2nd, 2010. If the House of Representatives election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote? [ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED: For which candidate for the House of Representatives did you vote?]?" Base: All U.S. adults excluding those who say they are certain that they will not vote
	Total	Voting Intention
		Absolutely or Very certain to vote	Probably will vote	Already voted	Will not vote
	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	39	40	40	41	40
Republican candidate	36	40	39	53	18
Other	7	7	7	6	10
Not sure	19	12	14	-	32
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3A LEANER VOTES "Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for the House of Representatives? Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is." Base: U.S. adults not sure who they will vote for
	Total	Political Party			Tea Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Supporter
	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	19	8	42	13	8
Republican candidate	17	36	7	24	43
Other	6	2	2	10	15
Not sure	58	55	49	54	34
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3B LEANER VOTES "Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for the House of Representatives? Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is." Base: U.S. adults not sure who they will vote for
	Total	Voting Intention
	Total	Absolutely or Very certain to vote	Probably will vote	Already voted	Will not vote
	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	19	22	23	-	18
Republican candidate	17	26	23	-	7
Other	6	5	5	-	15
Not sure	58	47	49	-	59
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 4A COMBINED PLANNED VOTES AND LEANER VOTES "We'd like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the House of Representatives election on November 2nd, 2010. If the House of Representatives election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote? [ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED: For which candidate for the House of Representatives did you vote?][ASKED OF THOSE NOT SURE: Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for the House of Representatives? Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is.]" Base: All U.S. adults excluding those who say they are certain that they will not vote
	Total	Political Party			Tea Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Supporter
	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	42	5	85	31	12
Republican candidate	39	86	6	41	72
Other	8	4	3	16	12
Not sure	11	5	7	13	4
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 4B COMBINED PLANNED VOTES AND LEANER VOTES "We'd like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the House of Representatives election on November 2nd, 2010. If the House of Representatives election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote? [ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED: For which candidate for the House of Representatives did you vote?][ASKED OF THOSE NOT SURE: Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for the House of Representatives? Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is.]" Base: All U.S. adults excluding those who say they are certain that they will not vote
	Total	Voting Intention
	Total	Absolutely or Very certain to vote	Probably will vote	Already voted	Will not vote
	%	%	%	%	%
Democratic candidate	42	43	43	41	46
Republican candidate	39	44	42	53	20
Other	8	8	8	6	15
Not sure	11	6	7	-	19
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between October 11 to 18, 2010 among 3,084 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

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Q1245, 1255, 1256

The Harris Poll® #126, October 22, 2010

By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.