Rubio Holds 20-Point Lead, 56% Say He Will Win, Including 40% of Democrats, while Crist is Tied with Meek and is Favorite 2nd Choice, United Faculty of Miami Dade College Poll Finds

MIAMI, Oct. 4 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Republican Marco Rubio not only holds a commanding 20-point lead over Gov. Charlie Crist and a 21-point edge over Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek among most likely voters, 56 percent of voters — including 40 percent of Democrats — say the former speaker of the Florida House will win the race for U.S. Senate, according to a United Faculty of Miami Dade College (UFMDC) poll released today.

The poll, conducted by live interviewers, shows that Rubio is comfortably ahead with 46.3 percent. Crist, the Independent candidate, is still in second, but essentially tied with Meek at 26.6 — 25.7 percent, with only 1.4 percent undecided (leaners are included in trial heat totals).

What's more, 56 percent believe Rubio will win, including 40 percent of Democrats, 76 percent of Republicans and 50 percent of Independent and other voters.

Crist is believed to be the eventual winner by 29 percent of voters, including 36 — 17 — 41 percent of Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Only 11 percent said Meek will win, including only 22 percent of Democrats, 3 percent of Republicans and 6 percent of everyone else.

Rubio also has the highest favorable-unfavorable rating, 60 — 28, compared to Crist's 51 — 47. Meek is upside down at 35 — 44, the likely result of his bruising primary.

A super majority, 66 percent, say they believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction, while President Obama's job performance also is net negative at 43 — 57 approve/disapprove.

Dr. Barry Greenberg, who supervised the poll for UFMDC, noted that Rubio has the wind to his back for the remaining weeks before the election.

"Rubio is riding the current state of deep discontent among voters. He has become well known and well liked by his followers," said Greenberg, professor emeritus of educational and psychological studies at Florida International University in Miami.

Also helping Rubio is that a majority of voters now perceive Rubio as the candidate to beat, he said.

"It can become a self-fulfilling prophesy if you are viewed as the likely winner. Conversely, it's hard to gain momentum when voters don't think you can win," he said.

Rubio's garnering 68 percent of his vote from Republicans, and leads among Independents with 46 percent, while receiving 23 percent from Democrats. Meek is leading among Democrats with 44 percent, while he gets 7 and 23 percent among Republicans and Independents.

Crist, meanwhile, remains stuck in a partisan no man's land — his support is strongest among Democrats at 32 percent, while receiving 21 and 26 percent from Republicans and Independents, respectively.

Crist, however, is still positioned to make up some ground. Rubio and Meek are still unknown to 13 and 22 percent of the electorate, respectively. More important, Crist is the second choice of 53 percent of voters, who are almost evenly distributed along party lines. Meek and Rubio are the second choices of 29 and 15 percent, respectively.

"Being the favorite second choice in a 3-way race provides Crist an opening. But it's still very much open to question whether he can actually peel off enough votes to win," Greenberg said.

The survey results do show that Meek and Crist supporters are potentially amenable to swapping candidates. Among Meek supporters, 62 percent have a favorable opinion of Crist. Only 39 percent of Crist voters share that favorable sentiment about Meek, but 55 percent of Democrats do.

"The opinion environment's there for voters to switch between Crist and Meek," Greenberg said. "They just need a good reason, something that makes sense to them."  

Meek also has an opening via strong Democratic turnout, he said.

"When Democrats turn out, Meek benefits the most," he said.

For UFMDC's poll, 511 most likely voters were interviewed Sept. 23-30, with a sampling margin of error of 4.4 percent. Respondents had the choice of being interviewed in English or Spanish. Only voters whose registration records indicated they had voted in the 2008 general election, and who also said they would "definitely" or "probably" vote in the 2010 general election, were interviewed. All results are presented unweighted.

United Faculty of Miami Dade College (www.ufmdcc.org) is the union that represents professors at Miami Dade College. Toplines are available on UFMDC's web site. The poll is part of UFMDC's Voters Action Project (votersactionproject.org), a non-partisan voter education and outreach program. UFMDC and the Voters Action Project are independent of Miami Dade College.

SOURCE United Faculty of Miami Dade College