Services PMI® at 61.9%; September 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 62.3%; New Orders Index at 63.5%; Employment Index at 53%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 68.8%

TEMPE, Ariz., Oct. 5, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector grew in September for the 16th month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: "The Services PMI^® registered 61.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 61.7 percent in August. The September reading indicates the 16th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 140 months.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 68.8 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from August's reading of 69.6 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Prices Index registered 77.5 percent, up 2.1 percentage points from the August figure of 75.4 percent."

Nieves continues, "According to the Services PMI^®, 17 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 16th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. The slight uptick in the rate of expansion in the month of September continued the current period of strong growth for the services sector. However, ongoing challenges with labor resources, logistics, and materials are affecting the continuity of supply."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 17 services industries reporting growth in September — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; and Finance & Insurance. The only industry to report a decrease is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• "Transportation bottlenecks are increasing, resulting in longer lead times and missed appointments." [Accommodation & Food Services]
• "Constraints on logistics from a cost and availability standpoint continue to be an issue." [Construction]
• "Lead times on electronics and computer chips have greatly increased. Outlook for higher education remains flat for most colleges, not including elite and Ivy League institutions." [Educational Services]
• "International and domestic demand remains very strong." [Finance & Insurance]
• "Retaining clinical and temporary staffing is critical at this time. With the Delta variant's spread, we continue to see increased (COVID-19) cases, but not as bad as January 2021. Vaccinations are clearly working. Most inpatient hospitalizations are of unvaccinated patients. The supply chain is still being impacted significantly by increased lead times for equipment and supplies." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• "The semiconductor (shortage is) impacting server delivery. Alternate parts and engineering efforts are being used to create workaround solutions." [Information]
• "Both domestic and international logistics are increasing lead times about six weeks for ocean freight and two weeks for domestic freight." [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• "Inventories shrinking due to global shipping logistics being a seller's/provider's market, with primary focus on yield versus market expansion." [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• "Lead times have improved slightly over the last period, but still remain lengthy relative to pre-pandemic levels. We continue to see rising costs for both supply and service inputs. The effects of these price increases have the potential to significantly impact our operations through the end of the year, especially if seasonal trends prove exceptionally strong." [Public Administration]
• "Business volumes remain remarkably high, although material shortages persist." [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
• "Still experiencing very strong demand. Supply chain is still a challenge." [Retail Trade]
• "Demand far outweighs supply for goods and services." [Transportation & Warehousing]
• "We continue to deal with extended delivery lead times and high costs. Stress on the supply chain beginning to be reflected in the quality of products offered and delivered. Current buying strategy is to wait — except with equipment, as (price) increases are expected." [Utilities]
• "Continued constrained supply of many key product groups. Also, inflationary pressures in most areas of the business keep driving costs higher. Inconsistent COVID-19 restrictions throughout the country are creating unstable business conditions that are concerning. However, business continues to be strong overall." [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (3); Aluminum Products; Bacon; Beef; Chemicals; Chicken; Construction Contractors (3); Copper Products (3); Corrugated Products; Diesel (10); Electrical Components (8); Electronics; Food; Food and Beverages (2); Freight (5); Fuel (9); Gasoline (10); Hardware; Labor (10); Labor — Construction (2); Labor — Temporary (9); Logistics Services; Ocean Freight; Paper Products (2); Plastic Products (2); Poly Film Products; Polyvinyl Chloride Products (PVC); Postage; Printing; Resin-Based Products (3); Steel — Stainless (2); and Steel Products (9).  

Commodities Down in Price

Lumber (3); Oriented Strand Board (OSB); and Rental Cars.

Commodities in Short Supply

Adhesives; Blood Collection Tubes; Chicken; Computer Equipment (2); Construction Contractors; Construction Subcontractors (2); COVID-19 Testing Kits; Drivers; Electrical Components; Fiber-Optic Cable (3); Generators; Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment; Labor (2); Labor — Temporary (9); Laptops and Desktop Computers (2); Media Supplies; Microchips (2); Needles and Syringes (2); Ocean Freight Containers; Pipette (7); Polypropylene; Resin-Based Products (2); Steel Products; Surgical Gloves; and Truck Drivers.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

SEPTEMBER 2021 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®

In September, the Services PMI^® registered 61.9 percent, a 0.2-percentage point increase compared to the August figure of 61.7 percent. This reading indicates the services sector grew for the 16th consecutive month after two months of contraction and 122 months of growth before that. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49.2 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Services PMI^® indicates expansion for a 16th straight month following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 127 months of growth. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for September (61.9 percent) corresponds to a 4.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity

ISM^®'s Business Activity Index registered 62.3 percent in September, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the August reading of 60.1 percent. This represents growth for the 16th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: "Business volume has increased slightly, and we are dealing with severe supply chain disruption" and "Taking on new contracts."

The 17 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of September — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Other Services; Construction; Mining; and Transportation & Warehousing. The one industry reporting a decrease in September is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

New Orders

ISM^®'s New Orders Index registered 63.5 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the August reading of 63.2 percent. New orders grew for the 16th consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: "New customers added, which has led to greater sales orders and business activity" and "New orders have increased due to pent-up demand coming online."

The 17 industries that reported growth of new orders in September — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; and Wholesale Trade. The one industry reporting a decrease in September is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

Employment

Employment activity in the services sector grew in September for the third consecutive month after contracting in June. ISM^®'s Services Employment Index registered 53 percent in September, down 0.7 percentage point from the August reading of 53.7 percent. Comments from respondents include: "Employee flight to better-paying jobs and lack of a pipeline to replace" and "Labor shortages experienced at all levels."

The 14 industries reporting an increase in employment in September — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Mining; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries that reported a reduction in employment in September are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Public Administration.

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 68.8 percent, which is 0.8 percentage point lower than the 69.6 percent reported in August. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Shortages of multiple products due to port backlog and shortage of long-haul truck drivers" and "Reports of suppliers being unable to staff their warehouses due to COVID-19 creating more backorders and longer lead times." Also, "Container deliveries are definitely slower; we do not expect this to improve for another 12 to 18 months."  

The 17 industries reporting slower deliveries in September — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Information; Educational Services; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Finance & Insurance. No industries reported faster supplier deliveries in September.

Inventories

The Inventories Index contracted in September for the fourth consecutive month. The reading of 46.1 percent was a 0.8-percentage point decrease from the 46.9 percent reported in August. Of the total respondents in September, 36 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Trying to build up stock due to supply chain issues" and "Burning through inventories and unable to replace."

The nine industries reporting an increase in inventories in September — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Educational Services; Utilities; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in September — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Other Services; Information; and Public Administration.

Prices

Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in September, with the index registering 77.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than August's reading of 75.4 percent.

All 18 services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of September, in the following order: Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Construction; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Educational Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders

The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in September for the 15th time in the last 16 months. The index registered 61.9 percent, a 0.6-percentage point increase compared to the 61.3 percent reported in August. Of the total respondents in September, 42 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The 13 industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in September — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; and Construction. The three industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in September are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in September for the eighth consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 59.5 percent in September, 1.1 percentage points lower than the 60.6 percent reported in August. Of the total respondents in September, 75 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The 11 industries reporting an increase in new export orders in September — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September are: Management of Companies & Support Services; and Other Services.

Imports

The Imports Index contracted for the second consecutive month in September, as it registered 47.7 percent, 1 percentage point lower than August's figure of 48.7 percent. Fifty-nine percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The four industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of September are: Information; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Wholesale Trade. The six industries reporting a decrease in imports in September — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Eight industries reported no change in imports in September.

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index contracted in September for the sixth consecutive month, registering 46.3 percent, 4.9 percentage points higher than August's figure of 41.4 percent. This indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too low when correlated to business activity levels.

The seven industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in September — listed in order — are: Mining; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Information. The eight industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in September — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade.

About This Report

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2021.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49.2 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.2 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.2 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®

Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Mastery Model^®. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring October 2021 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, November 3, 2021.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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