Smartphone Growth Will Return in 2027 After Tariffs Cause a Decline in 2025-2026

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Jun 03, 2025, 08:33 ET

BELMONT, Mass., June 3, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the free availability of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2024-2029 Forecast Report, as well as an updated US Total Available Market 2024-2029 Forecast.

Most credible recognized economists are of the opinion that the Trump administration's stated economic and domestic policies will lead to inflation, significant unemployment, and a recession. The unknown is the degree to which Trump will actually attempt to execute his plans, and the degree to which the legislature, the courts, and other economic actors can mitigate or block those plans. If Trump's final across the board tariffs average 15% above the current level, then employment growth will slow significantly and the number of businesses will decrease.

Our forecasts assume that the final Trump Tariffs applied to Personal Computing and Communications Devices will raise prices by approximately 10% in 2025 and 15% in 2026. This will lengthen replacement rates, reducing demand starting in Q3 2025 and all of 2026. However, demand delayed in 2025 and 2026 will return starting in 2027.

Market Overview

United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M)
		2024	2025	*AGR*	2029	*CAGR '24-'29*
Desktop PCs
	Desktop PCs	13.4	12.0	-10.6 %	12.6	-1.1 %
Mobile PCs
	Traditional	45.4	39.3	-13.5 %	49.6	1.8 %
	Convertible	7.4	6.3	-14.4 %	8.0	1.7 %
Total Mobile PCs		52.7	45.6	-13.6 %	57.6	1.8 %

Total PCs		66.1	57.5	-13.0 %	70.2	1.2 %
Tablets
	Detachable	20.7	23.1	11.7 %	28.9	6.9 %
	Slate	19.2	14.0	-26.8 %	11.1	-10.3 %
Total Tablets		39.9	37.2	-6.8 %	40.0	0.1 %

Total PCs and Tablets		106.0	94.7	-10.7 %	110.3
Mobile Phones
	Standard Phones	4.6	3.7	-18.6 %	3.8	-3.8 %
	Smartphones	128.1	115.2	-10.0 %	127.6	-0.1 %
Total Mobile Phones		132.6	118.9	-10.3 %	131.3	-0.2 %
Total
Total Personal Devices		238.6	213.6	-10.5 %	241.6	0.2 %
∞∫∆ Daniel Research Group © (2025)

Our two most current forecast reports are freely available from our web site.
DRG's United States PC, Tablet and Mobile Phone Market Size and Forecast to 2029.

The models utilize DRG's EquilibriumSolver (EQS), a forecasting methodology and application that utilizes a combination of long-term market trends, current unit shipments and revenue data, as well as analyst assessments of influencing economic, demographic, and market factors. In addition to Unit Shipments, the model forecasts, Prices, Revenues, Installed Bases, Replacement Rates, and Market Penetration and Densities, by product, form factor and segment.

DRG's United States Business Demographic Total Available Market Forecast to 2029

DRG's BEDD is a Total Available Market (TAM) database. It counts and forecasts employees, businesses, establishments, and payroll by Sector (Private and Public), Sub-Sector, Industry, and business size by employment. BEDD was designed to help clients size and forecast the total available market for their products and services. It provides the answer to three fundamental planning questions.

How big is the market for your product or service?
How fast or slow is it growing?
How is it segmented by Sector, Sub-Sector, Industry and Business Size?

For more information about our forecasts, methodology, or custom engagement, please call or email DRG.

About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 35 years, as well as traditional market research methodologies.

Contact
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 – 6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com

SOURCE Daniel Research Group