* The global solid oxide fuel cell market in 2011 will be worth more than $380 million, up from $360 million in 2010. This will result in a $530 million global market in 2016, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% between 2011 and 2016 under a consensus scenario.
* The market for CPUs is valued at $140 million in 2011 and is forecast to rise to almost $215 million by 2016, reflecting a CAGR of 9%.
* The total market for generators, remote and APUs is likely to increase from $135 million in 2011 to approximately $159 million in 2016, a CAGR of 3.3%.
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
Fuel cells are viewed as potential candidates for auxiliary power, mobile power, stationary distributed or central power, and portable product power. Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are among the most efficient and cost-effective. Although relatively high operating temperature limits the range of applications possible, stationary, mobile, and even portable product configurations are possible.
Advances in the technology have been made, but sometimes these advances reveal even more challenges to be met. Slowly, there is the realization that total dependency on hydrocarbon fuels is not a viable economic option. SOFCs have a part in securing energy security for the country, improving the environment, greatly reducing urban pollution, and creating jobs in manufacturing as the technology advances. They can also provide a cost-effective and performance-driven rival for other fuel cells, batteries, internal combustion engines, and coal- or oil-fired heat engines.
This study analyzes components of the SOFC, a technology offering the promise of greatly reduced environmental impact and excellent performance, price, and efficiency advantages. Recent historic developments and approaches are described along with recent commercial developments and the state of the art.
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
This report can also provide valuable information in terms of assessing investment in particular technologies and, therefore, should benefit investors directly or indirectly. Others may find the broad discussions of energy policy and environmental impact to be of considerable value in understanding the opportunities and problems in the near- to mid-term.
This report is intended to provide a unique analysis of the SOFC market and will be of interest to a variety of current and potential fuel cell users and integrators as well as competing battery, fuel cell, and conventional power generation makers.
BCC Research wishes to thank those companies, government agencies, and university researchers that contributed information for this report.
SCOPE OF REPORT
This report discusses the North American, European, Far Eastern, and Rest-of-World market value. Target markets are based on optimistic, pessimistic, and consensus alternatives. This is compared to the conventional power generation target and peak shifting opportunities. The current market is small, mainly limited to pilot projects or emerging niches. By 2016, these pilots will be expanding into commercial implementations. This 2016 market is also characterized in terms of optimistic, pessimistic, and consensus scenarios.
SOFC applications are described and analyzed. The following applications are considered:
* Combined heat and power (CHP)
* Portable product power
* Remote power and auxiliary power units (APUs)
SOFC companies are listed and detailed profiles prepared.
An in-depth analysis of technical and business literature and published dissertations; a review of the history of the technologies involved; and interviews with industry experts, company representatives, federal government researchers, and university scientists provide an assessment of the outlook for alternative electrical power storage. Other INFORMATION SOURCES include product literature from suppliers, scientific references, conferences, and patent searches.
Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this report, which is based on interviews with commercial and government sources, literature reviews, and patent examinations. Throughout the report, past market data is expressed in current dollars, and estimates and projections are in constant 2011 dollars. Historic markets (2006) and the projected market for 2016 are provided.
Most market summaries are based on a consensus scenario that assumes no unanticipated technical advances and no unexpected legislation. When appropriate, pessimistic, consensus, and optimistic market scenarios characterize several developmental markets. Totals are rounded to the nearest million dollars. When appropriate, information from previously published sources is identified to allow a more detailed examination by clients.
Market assumptions used in this report include those based on updates of material from an earlier version of this analysis, as well as from BCC Research studies. This report's author prepared these studies as well. He also edits the twice-monthly BCC Research newsletter, Fuel Cell Industry Report and Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Progress, which are uniquely valuable sources for this market. Although many segments of the industry are well documented, much of this information is based on estimates, not hard facts. The distinction between these estimates and hard facts can be vital, and wherever possible, sources are identified.
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION . 1
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES 1
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY .. 1
INTENDED AUDIENCE .... 1
SCOPE OF REPORT 2
INFORMATION SOURCES .... 3
ANALYST CREDENTIALS 3
RELATED REPORTS .... 3
BCC ONLINE SERVICES .. 4
DISCLAIMER . 4
CHAPTER TWO: SUMMARY . 5
SUMMARY . 5
SUMMARY TABLE GLOBAL SOFC MARKET SUMMARY BY
TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO ($
MILLIONS) . 6
SUMMARY FIGURE GLOBAL SOFC MARKET SUMMARY BY
TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO ($
MILLIONS) . 6
SUMMARY FIGURE (CONTINUED) 7
CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW 8
FUEL CELL BACKGROUND . 8
TABLE 1 SOFC COMPARED TO OTHER FUEL CELLS . 9
SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL BACKGROUND 9
SOFC MATERIALS 10
SOFC Electrodes, Electrolytes, and Interconnects 11
SOFC Glass Seals .. 12
SOFC Gaskets ... 13
TABLE 2 SOFC GASKET MATERIALS ... 13
TABLE 2 (CONTINUED) ... 14
Recent SOFC Material Developments 14
Georgia Tech SOFC Ceramic Material ... 14
Georgia Tech …Continued) .... 15
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science
and Technology and the Fine Ceramics
Research Association Electrode Compositions . 16
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Ceramic Microreactors ... 17
Cornell One-Pot Process . 17
West Virginia University Interconnect Coatings .. 18