Summer's Not Clocking Out Yet: Warmer Fall Forecast Could Extend Pest Activity Across the U.S.

The National Pest Management Association's Bug Barometer® predicts elevated pest activity as warm temperatures linger into fall

FAIRFAX, Va., Aug. 26, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The National Pest Management Association (NPMA) today released its Fall & Winter 2026 Bug Barometer®. Twice a year, NPMA's board-certified entomologists examine recent weather history along with long-term weather and drought forecasts and pest biology to provide a region-by-region look at the pest activity.

This year's outlook points to warmer-than-average fall temperatures across much of the continental U.S., which could give pests like ants, mosquitoes and ticks more time to forage and reproduce before cooler temperatures eventually prompt others, like cockroaches and rodents, to seek shelter indoors.

"Weather is one of several important pieces in forecasting pest activity, and with summer-like temperatures forecasted to continue, pests are going to take advantage of the extra time," said Dr. Jim Fredericks, senior vice president of public affairs for NPMA. "Americans should follow smart prevention tips, like wearing EPA-registered repellent and working with a qualified pest control professional if you spot a pest problem in your home or yard."

NPMA's Fall & Winter 2026 Bug Barometer® predictions include:

Mid-Atlantic & New England (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, D.C., Virginia):

Hot summer-like temperatures lasting into fall could keep ticks and ants active later than usual. If warm and dry conditions persist into fall, pressure from cooler-season pests like rodents, Asian lady beetles and boxelder bugs may be delayed.

Southeast (North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Florida): 

Warm, wet conditions may extend mosquito and cockroach activity. Prolonged rain could boost food availability for rodents, setting the stage for increased encounters as temperatures cool.

Great Lakes, Ohio Valley & Midwest (West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota):

Above-average temperatures may lead to a longer season for stinging insects and ticks as they take advantage of the favorable conditions.

North Central (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Wyoming):

Predictions of warm fall temperatures and increased rainfall could mean more ant, tick and mosquito activity. 

South Central (Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas): 

Warm, wet conditions well into the fall could allow cockroaches, ants and mosquitoes to remain active later in the season than usual.

Intermountain & Southwest (New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, California):

Heavier rainfall could push scorpions and spiders indoors in search of drier conditions. Continued heat and moisture may increase mosquito activity.

Northwest (Idaho, Washington, Oregon):

Unseasonably warm temperatures combined with drier fall conditions may extend ant and stinging insect activity. Rodent encounters could increase as temperatures cool.

Expert Tips to Protect Your Home
NPMA recommends these steps to reduce the risk of pest infestations:

• Seal entry points: Check the exterior of your home for gaps or cracks and seal them with caulk or weatherstripping. Replace damaged screens and add door sweeps as needed.
• Remove standing water: Mosquitoes can breed in as little as a bottle cap of water. Empty birdbaths, gutters, flowerpots and other containers regularly.
• Maintain your yard: Keep grass trimmed and shrubs pruned away from your home's exterior. Remove leaf litter where pests can hide.
• Store food properly: Keep food in airtight containers and promptly clean up crumbs and spills.
• Fix moisture issues: Repair leaky pipes and clogged drains. Ensure proper ventilation in basements, attics and crawl spaces.
• Call in a professional: A qualified pest control professional can inspect your home, spot potential problem areas and recommend a prevention plan tailored to your property.

"The best time to address a pest problem is before it gets out of control," added Dr. Fredericks. "A professional pest inspection can help catch potential risks and early activity, helping protect your health and property."

For more information and to find a trusted pest control professional near you, visit www.pestworld.org.

About the National Pest Management Association
The National Pest Management Association (NPMA), a non-profit organization with more than 4,000 members, was established in 1933 to support the pest management industry's commitment to the protection of public health, food and property from the diseases and dangers of pests. For more information, visit PestWorld.org or follow @PestWorld on Facebook, Pinterest, TikTok and YouTube and @PestWorldOfficial on Instagram. 

SOURCE National Pest Management Association