Survey: As 2025 Begins, CEOs Are Most Worried About a Trade War and Recession

NEW YORK, Jan. 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- As the new year begins, what will keep the world's executives up at night?

CEOs globally rank intensified trade wars as the top geopolitical risk to their companies. They say tensions between the US, EU, and China will have the greatest geopolitical impact, according to a new survey from The Conference Board.  

When it comes to economic risks, leaders can't seem to kick the recession jitters. Concern of an economic downturn remains high: 46% of CEOs globally identify it as a high-impact issue in 2025—down modestly from 53% in 2024.  

Amid geopolitical and geoeconomic tumult, more CEOs are strengthening their supply chains. Among US CEOs, 71% plan to alter their supply chains over the next 3-5 years—an increase from 54% in the 2024 survey.

CEOs also weighed in on AI. They say the biggest benefit has been workforce productivity, demonstrating AI's ability to support workers rather than replace them…at least for now. However, many are struggling to integrate the technology because of talent concerns: 45% of CEOs globally say lack of expertise is the top challenge to implementing AI.

This year's survey reflects the views of more than 1,700 executives, including over 500 CEOs. The survey's participants—CEOs, C-suite leaders, and board directors—weighed in on the top business threats and opportunities in 2025. They were primarily from four regions: North America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

Highlights from C-Suite Outlook 2025 include:

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

CEOs say a global trade war and US-EU-China tensions are top geopolitical challenges in 2025

• Global instability and competition on the front burner: Amid talk of tougher trade policy, CEOs worldwide named US-EU-China tensions among the high-impact issues facing their business in 2025. That ranges from 34% of US CEOs to nearly 50% in Asia and Europe.
• Leaders remain focused on cyberattacks: 25% of CEOs and 36% of C-suite executives name it a high-impact issue in 2025. Fears of a foreign cyberattack rank high among risks CEOs fear most in the US (45%) and Europe (35%).
• Risks vary by region: Among economy-related geopolitical risks, CEOs cited higher energy prices (35%) as their top risk. That includes 47% of CEOs in Japan and Europe, and 36% of Europe's CEOs also fearing energy supply risks. 

RECESSION

Recession tops the economic worry list: CEOs say it's their #1 economic concern in 2025

• The fear of a downturn persists: Globally, 46% of CEOs identified a downturn/recession as a high-impact issue for 2025. That's down modestly from 53% in last year's survey.
• Recession is the top concern for all regions excluding Japan: Japan's CEOs top concern is labor shortages (66%).

DEBT in the US

A ticking time bomb: US CEOs remain deeply worried about the nation's debt

• Top concerns: An outsized 51% of US CEOs see US national debt and deficits, followed by decoupling or derisking from China, as the greatest external geopolitical concerns for their businesses.  
• Policy & globalization impacts: Regarding what they think will have the greatest impact, issues cited by US CEOs include US debt & deficits (38%), regulation (32%), protectionism (27%), corp. tax rates (22%), immigration (21%).

SUPPLY CHAINS

Supply chain resiliency gains momentum: More CEOs are planning to shake things up

• A big increase among US CEOs: 71% of US CEOs plan to alter their supply chains in the next 3-5 years. It's a significant increase from 54% in last year's survey.
• A big increase among Europe's CEOs: 77% plan to alter their supply chains, an increase from 61% in 2024.
• The how—top changes being made to supply chains: CEOs across most regions—excluding the US—are using digital technology/AI to improve performance tracking as a primary goal. US CEOs chose vendor diversification.
• The why—top reasons for altering supply chains: Among the roughly 80% of CEOs looking to alter supply chains, most are doing so to lower costs and risk of supply chain disruptions.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

CEOs are struggling to integrate AI…mainly because they don't have the right talent

• Lack of talent: Among CEOs globally, 45% say lack of expertise is the top challenge to implementing AI.
• Is worker resistance overblown? Only 9% of CEOs cite worker resistance as a top challenge to implementation.
• In what areas has AI made the biggest improvements? According to CEOs globally, workforce productivity (44%), customer satisfaction (25%), innovation (24%), operational resilience (18%), and ROI from marketing (12%).

ESG

As extreme weather events intensify, climate events are top of mind for CEOs globally

• Concerns/Risks: Among CEOs globally, 34% cite climate events as the top ESG factor impacting business. That's second to only sustainability, cited by 39%.
• Priorities: When it comes to environmental priorities, there are stark regional differences.
  • Among CEOs globally, renewable energy tops the list.
  • US CEOs are most focused on climate resilience/adaptation.
  • Europe and Japan's CEOs are most focused on carbon neutrality.
  • CEOs in other areas of Asia are most focused on renewable energy. 

PROFIT PLANS

Outside of Japan, few CEOs are looking to raise prices in 2025. Instead, the focus is on innovation, tech, and product development. 

• Innovation leads: Worldwide, 37% of CEOs say innovation is a top priority for growing profits, followed by introducing new products/services (29%) and investing in technology, including AI (26%).
  • Just 13% expect to increase prices. 
• Higher budgets for marketing tech: 37% of CEOs globally—including 57% in Europe and 31% in the US—say they plan to increase their marketing budgets by 10% or more on AI and data analytics to support the drive for profits. 

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.ConferenceBoard.org

SOURCE The Conference Board