The 15th Launch of Forecasting & Prospects Research Reports on Energy Economy

BEIJING, Jan. 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- On January 12, 2025, the "The 15th Launch of Forecasting & Prospects Research Reports on Energy Economy" was held in Beijing. The conference was hosted by Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research of Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality. Eight research reports were released to the public.

The series of reports are from the targeted research results on specific topics based on changes in international and domestic energy economics and climate policy situations over the previous year, performed by the research team led by distinguished Professor Yi-Ming Wei. Since 2011, these reports have been published by Beijing Institute of Technology annually for 15 consecutive years, garnering widespread attention.

Professor Yi-Ming Wei, Director of Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality, presided over the meeting and introduced the attending experts. Professor Ben-Cong Wang, Vice President of Beijing Institute of Technology, also attended the meeting and delivered a speech. He pointed out that the series of forecasting and prospects research reports on energy economy closely align with the national strategic needs for energy and carbon emission reduction, accurately focusing on major cutting-edge issues such as energy security, energy markets, and low-carbon development. These reports have received enthusiastic responses and widespread acclaim from various sectors of society. Professor Hua Liao, Director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, introduced the overall situation about the release event, reviewed the energy economic situation of 2024, and forecasted the key development trends for energy economy in 2025. Subsequently, Professor Qiao-Mei Liang and Professor Bi-Ying Yu respectively chaired the other release of the research reports.

I. Macroeconomic Trends in Energy Economics

In 2025, the energy economics will act as a "stabilizer" for the new normal of macroeconomic development. Wind power and photovoltaic sectors will exhibit strong momentum, while biomass and hydropower will reveal new potential. Advancing clean, low-carbon initiatives and promoting coordinated industry development serve as the dual engines driving the rise of the energy economy.

II. Energy Market Development

In 2025, the growth in global crude oil demand lags behind supply, increasing downward pressure on oil prices. Geopolitical conflicts and major power rivalries continue to disrupt the market, leading to heightened short-term oil price volatility. The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are expected to range between $67–$77 per barrel and $62–$72 per barrel, respectively. Since 2011, the price index of key raw materials for the energy transition has shown fluctuating trends without a long-term upward trajectory or sustained high levels. Its volatility has been lower than that of the energy price index.

III. Energy Technology and Industrial Development

The carbon threshold regulations proposed by the EU's New Battery Law may cause huge economic losses and unemployment risks for both China and the EU. If the EU expands its lithium battery production and processing capacity to make up for the supply gap, it will also lead to great risks of capital and labor shortages, driving up battery production and usage costs, which would be detrimental to the development of both regions. Carbon capture technologies involve complex processes, diverse carbon sources, high technical intensity, and significant capital requirements, making them key factors in determining CCUS project investment and deployment. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is crucial to focus on low energy consumption, low costs, and high efficiency while advancing fundamental research, technology development, equipment manufacturing, integrated demonstration, and industrial cultivation to comprehensively enhance China's carbon capture technology and core competitiveness. Driven by the digital economy, the electricity consumption of the data centers will account for 4.85% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society in 2030, and data centers also have the flexibility potential of tens of thousands of megawatts. In the future, the synergy among computing power, electricity and heat will become an important scenario for the integration of information and energy under the development pattern of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

IV. Global Climate Governance

Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) across natural language understanding, deep learning, and multimodal information processing have introduced new research paradigms for climate change governance. Moving forward, strengthening AI applications and promoting interdisciplinary integration will be essential to addressing climate challenges. After three years of continuous development, China's national carbon market has made significant progress. A comprehensive regulatory framework has gradually taken shape, incentive and constraint mechanisms have been initially established, and emission reduction effects have begun to emerge.

Representatives from 30 media outlets, including China Media Group and People's Daily Online, covered the press conference. A total of approximately 3000 participants from various sectors of society attended the event both online and offline.

Download address of full report:
https://ceep.bit.edu.cn/zxcg/ndycbg/index.htm

SOURCE Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research of Beijing Institute of Technology