The Alzheimer's Disease Drug Market Will Triple by 2022, Driven Largely by the Projected Launch of Eli Lilly's Solanezumab

Emerging Disease-Modifying Therapy Solanezumab Will Be Used Predominately in the Mild Alzheimer's Disease Segment, According to a New Report from Decision Resources

Oct 29, 2013, 09:00 ET from Decision Resources

BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 29, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, projects that the market for Alzheimer's disease (AD) therapies will nearly triple between 2012 and 2022, despite increasing genericization and few new product launches expected during this time. The key driver of growth in the AD drug market will be Eli Lilly's anti-beta-amyloid monoclonal antibody, solanezumab, the first potentially disease-modifying therapy (DMT) to launch for AD. Solanezumab is anticipated to launch in the seven major pharmaceutical markets—the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan—beginning in 2018. By 2022, the drug is forecast to attain sales in excess of $5 billion in these markets.

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The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Alzheimer's Disease finds that more than 85 percent of solanezumab's projected total use in 2022 will be in the mild AD market segment (the population in which the drug is currently being tested), followed by the pre-AD 1-2 years market segment.* Interviewed thought leaders believe that DMTs will offer the greatest therapeutic benefit in the earlier stages of the disease; as such, uptake in the moderate and severe AD segments is likely to be minimal. Furthermore, Decision Resources expects that reimbursement authorities across the major markets will closely scrutinize the value of these therapies and impose restrictions that limit the use of such agents to specific patient subsets, most likely those patients in the mildest stages of the disease. This scrutiny will stem from emerging DMTs' anticipated premium pricing and as-yet unproven cost/benefit ratio coupled with the growing AD patient population.

"AD patients have unique therapeutic needs depending on the disease severity, many of which are suboptimally met with current medication," said Decision Resources Senior Business Analyst Georgiana Kuhlmann, S.M. "Late-stage emerging DMTs are largely focused on slowing cognitive decline, an advance that will predominately benefit mild AD and pre-AD patients. In the absence of novel agents that specifically target the later stages of the disease, the moderate to severe AD population will likely remain underserved throughout the forecast period."

*Decision Resources defines the pre-AD 1-2 years population as those patients who will go on to develop overt Alzheimer's disease within the next one to two years.

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