BURLINGTON, Mass., July 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that the market for Alzheimer's disease (AD) therapies will more than triple, reaching nearly $12 billion by 2023, owing largely to the forecasted launch of the first disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), a landmark event in AD treatment. In 2023, these novel premium-priced agents—which include the anti-beta-amyloid monoclonal antibodies solanezumab (Eli Lilly) and gantenerumab (Roche), as well as the BACE inhibitor MK-8931 (Roche/Chugai/MorphoSys)—will earn sales of $7 billion combined in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan.
Other key findings from the Pharmacor report entitled Alzheimer's Disease:
- A new symptomatic alternative: Lundbeck/Otsuka's novel 5HT-6 receptor antagonist, Lu-AE58054, will launch as an adjunctive symptomatic treatment for AD and achieve blockbuster sales within the forecast period, capturing nearly 10 percent of major-market sales in 2023.
- Population growth: The surging prevalence of AD as the population ages will drive growth across the major markets. We also expect diagnosis and drug-treatment rates to rise modestly in the pre-AD 1-2 years* and mild AD patient segments as DMTs and new diagnostic technologies gradually gain traction.
- Current agents stay relevant: Today's clinical mainstays deliver modest symptomatic efficacy and do not affect disease progression but will remain the foundation of treatment throughout the forecast period—aided in part by growing generic availability. We forecast that acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs) will continue to capture over 70 percent total patient share (across all AD subpopulations) in 2023, while NMDA receptor antagonist products, including Forest's Namenda/Namenda XR, will continue to capture approximately 35 percent patient share.
Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Alana Simorellis, Ph.D.:
- "The projected launch of Eli Lilly's solanezumab, potentially the first ever DMT approved for the treatment of AD, will be a transformative event affecting the AD market as early as 2018. Commensurate with ongoing development and the views of experts in the field, we expect that future DMTs will most likely see the greatest uptake in the pre-AD and mild AD populations. Moreover, experts interviewed note that new symptomatic options also are sorely needed. Lundbeck/Otsuka's Lu-AE58054 and potentially others could partially address this need beginning in 2017."
- "While AD drug development is understandably focused on disease modification, there exists an important area of additional unmet need for safer, more-effective symptomatic therapies that can control the behavior disturbances associated with later-stage AD. Development in this arena is underway, with clinical trials assessing promising agents like Lundbeck/Otsuka's brexpiprazole for AD-associated agitation."
*Decision Resources Group defines its proprietary pre-AD 1-2 years population as those patients who will go on to develop AD within the next one to two years.
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