The Americas' data center boom may soon face a critical power crunch, Wärtsilä warns - and the industry is moving too fast to see it coming

New landmark analysis of data center power across the Americas identifies "speed to powerless" as the defining infrastructure risk of the AI era

HOUSTON, July 9, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Americas are in a race to build the data centers that will power the next wave of AI. But there's a problem: the power systems needed to run them can't keep pace with how fast they're being built. That mismatch is becoming one of the biggest hidden risks to AI infrastructure growth across the region.

The power decisions made today will determine which data center projects are still competitive in 2030 and beyond. As AI demand outpaces grid expansion, flexible and resilient power planning is becoming essential.

Wärtsilä, providing flexible power systems for the energy and data center sectors, is warning that this gap - which it calls "speed to powerless" - risks becoming a material brake on AI infrastructure growth across the Americas, as interconnection queues, transmission constraints, equipment lead times and permitting delays converge.

Risto Paldanius, VP Americas at Wärtsilä, says: "The race to build data centers across the Americas is extraordinary in its pace and scale. But power is not keeping up. Interconnection queues stretch years, transmission capacity is saturating in the corridors where data centers are clustering, and equipment lead times are pushing delivery towards 2030 and beyond. The risk is not that the market slows down – it is that it builds faster than it can reliably power. We call that speed to powerless, and the evidence suggests these pressures could converge into a serious constraint."

The evidence

The warning is backed by a new analysis - Beyond the Grid: Building the Power System for AI in the Americas - which examines data center power constraints across the US, Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Argentina, drawing on data from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the International Energy Agency, and national energy planning bodies across the Americas.

The scale of the challenge is significant and it is not confined to any single market in the Americas. In the US, approximately 2,600GW of generation and storage capacity were seeking grid interconnection as of the end of 2025, a queue that creates serious timing uncertainty for developers relying on traditional grid connection. In Brazil, projected data center load on the transmission grid in 2030 was revised upward by 60% – from 18.9TWh to 30.3TWh per year – just three months after the country's Annual Energy Operation Planning for 2026–2030 was published, reflecting how rapidly market assumptions are being overtaken by reality across the region.

In Mexico and parts of the US, water scarcity is further narrowing the range of viable power technologies, with cooling requirements for aeroderivative gas turbines creating significant water demand in regions where supply is already under pressure.

A new power architecture

Wärtsilä's analysis points to a fundamental shift in how data center power must be planned and delivered. The company argues that the limitations of traditional grid infrastructure will increasingly drive developers toward what it defines as macro-grids – fully or partially isolated systems requiring more than 100MW of on-site peak load – as the logical next step beyond microgrids. These systems retain the potential to be interconnected to the grid over time, positioning them as a bridge to future grid integration rather than a permanent substitute for it.

The company's research includes a 20-year levelized cost of electricity comparison between reciprocating internal combustion engine systems and aeroderivative gas turbines. Under the assumptions modelled in the analysis, reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE) shows a 25% levelized cost of electricity advantage – approximately $86 MW/h versus $111 MW/h or an annual saving of approximately $178M for a 1GW data center.

The research also highlights the operational advantages of RICE technology in high-temperature, water-scarce and water-conscious areas. Unlike aeroderivative gas turbines, which can derate output by up to 27% in high ambient temperatures, reciprocating engines maintain full rated output from -45°C to 45°C, with negligible process-water consumption for power generation.

Risto adds: "This is not a binary choice between on-site generation and the grid. The most resilient data centers will combine modular on-site RICE generation with flexibility, including grid supply where available, clean power contracts and long-term planning for eventual interconnection. The companies planning for that hybrid approach now will be the ones still operating efficiently in 2035, and the ones that are not planning for it risk finding themselves powerless at exactly the moment the market expects them to deliver."

It is a shift in mindset from securing power fast to securing power that lasts – built to remain efficient, resilient and commercially viable for decades, not just to switch on for launch day.

A regional picture

Wärtsilä's analysis examines each market individually. In the United States, interconnection delay, local transmission congestion and permitting friction are the principal barriers, particularly across PJM and ERCOT regions, with strong growth also anticipated in California, Arizona and the Pacific Northwest. In Brazil, centrally planned transmission expansion means delivery capacity to data center corridors may lag by years, compounded by the proposed Redata tax regime – currently under Senate review – which is directly shaping technology selection. In Mexico, the mismatch between construction schedules and grid expansion is driving interest in self-consumption models, particularly in water-stressed hubs such as Querétaro. In Chile, corridor-level transmission saturation and the lessons of the February 2025 national blackout are focusing attention on resilience and firm capacity. In Argentina, strong natural resources and the Large Investment Incentive Regime offer potential, but grid underinvestment and policy uncertainty remain material risks.

Across the Americas, Wärtsilä argues that data centers must be treated as long-term infrastructure, not short-term power projects. With the right power choices today, the region can connect facilities faster, operate them more reliably, and build the resilient, efficient and commercially viable infrastructure needed to lead the global race for AI.

Visit Beyond the Grid: Building the Power System for AI in the Americas to access the report.

Wärtsilä Energy in brief

Wärtsilä Energy is at the forefront of the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We help our customers and the power sector to accelerate their decarbonisation journeys through our market-leading technologies and power system expertise. Our solutions include flexible engine power plants, energy storage and optimisation technology, and services for the whole lifecycle of our installations. Our engines are future-proof and can run on sustainable fuels. Our track record comprises 81 GW of power plant capacity and over 130 energy storage installations in 180 countries around the world. About 35% of our operating installed base is under service agreements. 
www.wartsila.com/energy

Wärtsilä in brief Energy

Wärtsilä is a global leader in innovative technologies and lifecycle solutions for the marine and energy industries. We emphasise innovation in sustainable technology and services to help our customers continuously improve environmental and economic performance. Our dedicated and passionate team of 17,900 professionals in 199 locations in 78 countries shape the decarbonisation transformation of our industries across the globe. In 2025, Wärtsilä's net sales totalled EUR 6.9 billion. Wärtsilä is listed on Nasdaq Helsinki.
www.wartsila.com

SOURCE Wärtsilä