BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 30, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that by 2024 the breast cancer market will have grown to almost $20 billion across the major markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan), corresponding to an impressive annual growth rate of 5 percent. This growth will be fuelled by continued uptake of Roche/Genentech/Chugai's Perjeta (pertuzumab) and Kadcyla (trastuzumab-DM1) for HER2-positive disease, Pfizer's Ibrance (palbociclib) for hormone receptor (HR)-positive, HER2-negative disease, and the launch of several novel therapies, notably Roche/Genentech/Chugai's PD-L1 inhibitor, atezolizumab for triple-negative disease. Sales of recently launched and emerging therapies will more than offset the continued generic erosion of key current therapies, including the biosimilar erosion of trastuzumab (Roche/Genentech/Chugai's Herceptin).
Other key findings from the Pharmacor report entitled Breast Cancer:
- The HER2-positive breast cancer segment captured more than 40 percent of the 2014 breast cancer market and owing to the availability of several well established therapies will account for a significant proportion (more than one third) of the total breast cancer market in 2024.
- Triple negative breast cancer is a relatively untapped population for drug developers to target. A subset of triple-negative patients harbor germline BRCA1/2-mutations, and four PARP inhibitors—Tesaro's niraparib, Medivation's talazoparib, AstraZeneca's Lynparza (olaparib), and AbbVie's veliparib— are forecast to launch for this niche population. However, sales of these agents will be limited by the small size of the BRCA1/2-mutated population.
- The majority of all diagnosed breast cancer patients are HR-positive and HER2-negative patients, making this a large and potentially lucrative treatment setting. Emerging CDK4/6 and PI3K/AKT/mTOR inhibitors will garner major-market sales of $1.2 billion in this population, nearly one quarter of the total breast cancer market in 2024.Immune checkpoint inhibitors are poised to enter the breast cancer market. Roche's PD-L1 inhibitor atezolizumab and Merck & Co.'s PD-1 inhibitor Keytruda are in Phase III development, positioned as treatments for advanced/metastatic triple-negative breast cancer and will hold sales of more than $2 billion in 2024.
Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Kirsha Naicker PhD., MSc.:
- "Entry of several agents from the PARP inhibitor drug class will add modest sales to the breast cancer therapy market, however the development of PARP inhibitors have largely focused on the BRCA1/2-mutated breast cancer population, which constitutes a small subset of all breast cancers. Thus, despite multiple new agents from this class expected to gain approval, competition for a small subset of patients will limit individual drug sales and overall drug class sales."
- "The strengthening of the CDK4/6 inhibitors class of agents for HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer, will fuel robust sales for this market segment following the uptake of Ibrance and the launch of other agents in this drug class."
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SOURCE Decision Resources Group